EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Not sure if this correct or not but the Independent are usually factually reliable. I thought the tariffs onl6 applied to EU-UK trade and we don’t get our TMYs from Europe. 

Electric cars will cost drivers £6,000 more if Sunak fails to strike Brexit deal with EU

The tariffs would increase the price of a new Tesla Model Y – the UK’s most popular electric vehicle – by £6,000 or more, according to a new report by the Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations, shared with The Independent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-electric-cars-sunak-uk-eu-b2428577.html

Here is what the Daily Mail have to say.

EVs set to become £3,400 more expensive next year with new 'rule of origin' post-Brexit trade rules forcing prices even higher

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/electriccars/article-12643405/EVs-3400-expensive-rule-origin-post-Brexit-trade-rules.html

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Also isn’t it just possible that the extended range of the M3 will make buyers think very hard about whether they really need the extra space of a MYLR?

The TM3 has always had a longer range and lower price than the equivalent TMY. 
I don't understand why that would change anything in the choice going forward.
I also suspect TESLA are unfussed whether an individual choses the TM3 or TMY.

Maybe I could have put that better. The new M3 SR has a range of 344 miles compared to 305 miles previously. The MYLR has a range of 331 but costs £13k more. If you need a Tesla with a range of 330 miles would the extra space of a MY be worth an additional £13k or could you manage with the M3? Methinks, some (not all) would perhaps say, I reckon I can live with the M3 for the saving it offers. 

I doubt the MYLR costs £13k more to make than the M3SR so Tesla will be losing margin if a buyer switches from MYLR to M3SR. 

The Highland Model 3 is expected to cost less to build than the outgoing model especially in the Fremont & Shanghai plants. The M3SR - although 344 miles is not exactly 'short' - will be a very compelling vehicle at under £40K with its comprehensive level of standard equipment. 

I wasn’t sure whether you were agreeing or disagreeing with what I said but I don’t disagree with what you say. How much cheaper will the Highlander be to make though - enough to offset the £2.5k price drop? Apart from dropping the indicator column what other savings do you see?

If we agree the Highlander is a compelling package will it steal sales from the TMY like the Y did from the 3? I think the market for Teslas is a bit different to other EVs with owners often buying several in succession. A typical sequence  has been S to 3 to Y. Could Tesla buyers wanting the latest tech and more range choose a 3 instead of a Y next time. It’s just with the range of the SR Highlander being so close to that of a YLR, if you can manage with a 3 then it is a better buy at £13k less. The Highlander potentially, therefore, could hit overall margins.

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Also isn’t it just possible that the extended range of the M3 will make buyers think very hard about whether they really need the extra space of a MYLR?

The TM3 has always had a longer range and lower price than the equivalent TMY. 
I don't understand why that would change anything in the choice going forward.
I also suspect TESLA are unfussed whether an individual choses the TM3 or TMY.

Maybe I could have put that better. The new M3 SR has a range of 344 miles compared to 305 miles previously. The MYLR has a range of 331 but costs £13k more. If you need a Tesla with a range of 330 miles would the extra space of a MY be worth an additional £13k or could you manage with the M3? Methinks, some (not all) would perhaps say, I reckon I can live with the M3 for the saving it offers. 

I doubt the MYLR costs £13k more to make than the M3SR so Tesla will be losing margin if a buyer switches from MYLR to M3SR. 

The Highland Model 3 is expected to cost less to build than the outgoing model especially in the Fremont & Shanghai plants. The M3SR - although 344 miles is not exactly 'short' - will be a very compelling vehicle at under £40K with it's comprehensive level of standard equipment. 

You've reminded me of when I said the big price cuts by Tesla were a declaration of war against ICE, and you pointed out it might be one against legacy auto too.

Hopefully we'll find out some news tonight on the earnings call, what the results of Project Highland are, as Tesla continues its policy of reducing COGS (cost of goods sold), to expand sales by reducing prices. Not sure when Project Juniper will kick in, which is the similar upgrade to the Y, but given the recent small upgrade, I assume it's still some time away.

Must be scary (again) for legacy, as Tesla reduces costs and prices, whilst they are still struggling to reach profitability, but Tesla had to go through it too. During the ramp up of the TM3 in 2017, when they reached 100k total sales, I think their losses per car were about $20k. Fun times.

michaels

Beyond the cosmetic changes, do we know what has changed under the skin with Highland - batteries?  single piece castings?

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Beyond the cosmetic changes, do we know what has changed under the skin with Highland - batteries?  single piece castings?

I believe castings, but reports before and after the launch kept stressing that the motors and batteries haven't changed. But perhaps this will be clarified tonight. But expectations (risky?) are that the cars are now cheaper to build, especially if we consider inflation.

Edit - Big article here from Motor Trend if you're interested. Appears quite comprehensive, but I've only skimmed the headings.

2024 Tesla Model 3 Highland Interior Review: Nice Upgrade

JKenH

I think if Tesla had adopted castings (like on the Model Y) for the Model 3 Highland refresh we would have been hearing a lot more about it.

1961Nick

JKenH said:

I think if Tesla had adopted castings (like on the Model Y) for the Model 3 Highland refresh we would have been hearing a lot more about it.

From what I've been reading, the Highland Model 3 will be assembled using front & rear giga presses in all plants. This is reputed to be the source of the cost savings with the oldest plants saving the most.

Netexporter

Loads of other EV manufacturers, European and Chinese, are ordering giga presses, I gather. Seems to be the key to getting the manufacturing time right down. I suspect we may be paying for it in insurance premiums, though. 

JKenH

CleanTechnica’s (unusually frank) take on Tesla’s Q3 earnings call.

There is quite a lot in this article but below are a few snippets. 

Expectations For Tesla Have Just Gotten Too Ridiculous

With regards to the Mexico gigafactory, it’s delayed indefinitely — until interest rates drop enough.

It was an odd, unexpected conference call. Reflecting on it, I came to one overall conclusion: expectations for Tesla have just gotten too ridiculous. Expecting 50% CAGR at this stage is … a lot. Expecting to get to 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 is a little bonkers. Expecting Tesla robotaxis to arrive soon after years of incorrect forecasts from Elon Musk is … unrealistic. Expecting the Cybertruck to reach a million sales or half a million sales a year, and perhaps even in 2024, is expecting a miracle. 

Tesla in the 2010s was an amazing story. Tesla in the 2020s is already an amazing story. But expectations can get out of hand no matter what a person or a company is achieving, and I think expectations for Tesla have just gotten out of hand.

Tesla operating margin was at 7.6%, down significantly from the 17.2% of the 3rd quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings were 66¢ per share, much lower than the market’s expected 72¢ or 73¢ per share. Total gross profit was down 22% year over year.

Expectations For Tesla Have Just Gotten Too Ridiculous - CleanTechnica

1961Nick

News of a delay in the model 2 roadmap will cause a few sighs of relief in several automotive boardrooms.

I don't think Q4 will be that great either - The amount of discounts/incentives on the outgoing M3 is bound to hit gross margin along with increasing Cybertruck costs.

Q1 may see things settle down as deliveries of Highland get into full flow without discounting. A few Cybertruck deliveries may also reduce the cash burn on that line.

Not a great quarter, but I'd rather have Tesla's problems than those of legacy auto's EV divisions.