EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

silvercar said:

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

silvercar said:

“ Just a thought, but I was recently watching some discussions on a US business site about BEV's. One comment was interesting, pointing out, that for now, every extra car Tesla sells is extra revenue and profit. But on average, every BEV legacy sell, will displace an ICE sale. Legacy probably make a loss on the BEV, and also lose the profit they would have made on the ICEV. Ouch!”

The Tesla sale is displacing something, probably a high end brand ICEV, so some of the “ouch” is going to happen regardless. Market disruption, the playing field has already changed.

Yep, each Tesla sale removes an ICE car and the profit (for the manufacturer) as you say, too.

The problem for legacy is they are losing money on the BEV's they currently sell, and are planning vast investment to switch to BEV's - for the largest, possibly $100bn to $200bn - but will steadily be earning less and less profits, as their ICEV sales continue to fall. Big Ouchy.

Sort of depends how the accounting works though, if they have already written down the R&D costs of ICE then 'run out' production can be extremely profitable as there is no new ICE R&D to be paid for from revenue?

Yep, high profits on each ICE car sale, or not, if they sell a BEV instead. Tricky times ahead.

But the market is now disrupted. They can't keep only selling ICEVs, at some point they have to switch. 

Exactly, damned if they do, damned if they don't, so best they get on with it and shorten the pain, before the profits  from the ICE side disappear.

Hasn't Ford estimated a $4.5bn loss on their BEV side next year. Massive disruption of the market, as you say.

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

silvercar said:

But the market is now disrupted. They can't keep only selling ICEVs, at some point they have to switch. 

Exactly, damned if they do, damned if they don't, so best they get on with it and shorten the pain, before the profits  from the ICE side disappear.

I'm sure some corporate accountant has looked at this, but I wonder if it would be worth running eg. "old VW" down and eventually winding it up, while starting "new VW" as a tabula rasa manufacturer of EVs?

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Martyn1981 said:

silvercar said:

But the market is now disrupted. They can't keep only selling ICEVs, at some point they have to switch. 

Exactly, damned if they do, damned if they don't, so best they get on with it and shorten the pain, before the profits  from the ICE side disappear.

I'm sure some corporate accountant has looked at this, but I wonder if it would be worth running eg. "old VW" down and eventually winding it up, while starting "new VW" as a tabula rasa manufacturer of EVs?

Good way to plan for the future, but it will show what's really going on - Ford splitting into Ford Blue (the old company) and Ford Model E (the BEV side), plus Ford Pro, (the commercial side) has highlighted where the money is currently made, and lost, for legacy auto. In Q2, Blue and Pro each made about $2bn, whilst E lost ~$1bn.

But not criticising it, I think it was an incredibly brave move by Ford, and really helps us as avid watchers of this great transition/disruption.

And also a bit unfair to just use the heading 'loss' for the BEV side of companies, as just like Tesla a few years ago, the big losses, represent investment, and production lines that need to ramp up.

JKenH

I often use 50p/kWh as a typical cost for public charging when doing cost comparisons. I hadn’t realised that public charging costs had kept on creeping up after last winters energy price crisis. I doubt it has affected anyone on here but if you can’t charge at home why would you spend your own money to buy an EV?

Public and home EV charging prices to start falling imminently

Its new ChargeWatch data shows that the cost of using rapid and ultra-rapid public chargers finally stopped rising in September.

The analysis revealed that it currently costs an average of 71.41p per kWh to ‘rapid’ charge an EV on a pay-as-you-go basis, up from 63.29p (13%) a year ago but – for the first time in 2023 – unchanged since the previous month. This means drivers pay £36.56 to charge an electric car with a 64kWh battery from 0% to 80%, giving a range of around 188 miles.

https://fleetworld.co.uk/public-and-home-ev-charging-prices-to-start-falling-imminently/

Netexporter

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

thevilla

Netexporter said:

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

And restrict their choice and flexibility to charge where they need rather than where the price is right.  Would an ICE driver stand for it?

Netexporter

thevilla said:

Netexporter said:

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

And restrict their choice and flexibility to charge where they need rather than where the price is right.  Would an ICE driver stand for it?

No ICE driver in their right mind would buy fuel at a motorway services. There's usually a supermarket close to a motorway junction.

Also, I the prices quoted look like peak time. There are often 3 TOU rates for chargers.

Like everything else in life, the disorganised pay the highest prices, as is amply illustrated on the energy threads here.

JKenH

Netexporter said:

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

Fair comment but which network do you choose - the cheapest or the one with most chargers or the one with the nearest charger to your home?

I thought I would have a quick look at what is available. This isn’t exhaustive but they are the ones I could easily find. These would work if you can regularly charge on the same network but if you travel around a lot then you may end up using chargers on other networks at higher cost. Driving 8000 miles per year at 3.2mpk (after losses) is 2500 kWh or around 50 charges at 50kWh/time or around 4 charges/month. The cheapest (Fastned) then works out over a year at £1200 plus £120 subscription = 53p/kWh. If you typically charge 3 times a month at your Fastned charger and once, say, at Ionity at 74p then the cost averages out at 59.5p/kWh (£37 + £72 + £10 = £119/200kWh). That’s 18.6p/mile. 

BP Pulse £7.85/month 

Fastned

£9.99/ month and 48p/kWh

Ionity

£10.99/month and 56p/kWh

JKenH

Netexporter said:

thevilla said:

Netexporter said:

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

And restrict their choice and flexibility to charge where they need rather than where the price is right.  Would an ICE driver stand for it?

No ICE driver in their right mind would buy fuel at a motorway services. There's usually a supermarket close to a motorway junction.

Also, I the prices quoted look like peak time. There are often 3 TOU rates for chargers.

Like everything else in life, the disorganised pay the highest prices, as is amply illustrated on the energy threads here.

You might call me disorganised but when I had an EV and found myself needing a charge in an area I wasn’t familiar with I would generally go to the nearest working charger I could find. Because of bad experience with chargers I have in the past made a list of more than 20 chargers in advance of my journey. Convenience was my priority, not cost. Any working available charger would do. 

EricMears

JKenH said:

Netexporter said:

People who regularly use public chargers have subscriptions to networks that give them a substantial discount..

Fair comment but which network do you choose - the cheapest or the one with most chargers or the one with the nearest charger to your home?

Certainly not the one with the nearest charger to your home  !   Unless you're predicting complete loss of power to your home ?  Perhaps a network with chargers near your expected destination(s).