EV Discussion thread

thevilla

I've never had a car capable of > 400 miles on a full tank and I've never wanted or needed to drive 845 miles.  I'd be happy in the Leaf in a traffic jam knowing my idling engine isn't wasting fuel but less happy knowing I'm inhaling poison from all the ice vehicles around me.  These negative posts about EVs still ignore the health implications, not to mention climate implications of sticking with good old reliable use once and forget it fuel.  That throw away line "ignoring emissions......".  Grrr.

silvercar

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

I was following the discussion about @Grumpy_chap ’s road trip and the comparison of number of stops/refuelling time

In the other thread, there is a note about BYD and Geely leading the EV sales in Israel.  
Does anyone know how the Tesla charger network compares to non-Tesla charger network in Israel?
It certainly seems to be the charger network that forces the Tesla dominance in UK.

Having recently been in Israel, there are few EVs. Surprisingly few given the size of the country, which you would think would lend itself to EVs. We were discussing this with some Israelis who explained that the car market in Israel is very different to the UK. People buy new and then drive the cars until they are ready for the scrap heap. No one takes pride in their cars, minor scrapes and bumps are rarely repaired. 90% of cars are silver/ grey / white. The second hand market is tiny, people keep the car they know and like rather than trade in for a car that is a few years old and well worn. Even car hire places use cars that are upto say 7 years old, rather than newer models. As for a charging network, I’m not sure one exists. Anyone that doesn’t have access to a charger probably doesn’t drive an EV. Given the lack of a second hand market, new imported EVs are only likely to be bought by people who have access to charging at home. As for the Tesla market, I would say that 80% of the EVs we saw were Tesla. 

Martyn1981

Yep, I think BEV sales in Israel have only really taken off in the last year or two, and reflected (at the time) ship loads from Tesla. I may be confusing news with Australia, but I seem to recall something about a Tesla shipload being more than the then total BEV's in Israel?*

Just had a quick look at the supercharger map, and I think there are 15 SC locations. For some reason I seemed to recall that the Israeli SC sites were quite small, perhaps 4 chargers, but a random click seemed to show 8, 12, 16 chargers per location, so pretty normal.


*Edit - Perhaps it was more than the previous annual sales. Apparently Tesla got a licence for large scale sales in 2021, before that it only had a licence for small quantities.

The number of BEV sales in Israel in 2021 was ~4x the number in 2020, which itself was nearly twice the number from 2019.

Number of electric cars in Israel from 2015 to 2021

JKenH

End Of ICE Age? Enthusiasm Cools For Ban On Sale Of New Internal Combustion Engine Cars

Surprisingly, one in 10 drivers (11%) hadn’t even heard of the proposed 2030 ban. Of those that had, two in five (42%) disagree with the proposed ban entirely, and nearly two thirds (62%) believe the UK will not be ready for the ban by the target date. 

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that EV owners are unhappy with long waits to use charging points – and how these are often out of order – and it seems clear that infrastructure hasn’t been keeping pace with the adoption of EVs and the spike that’s likely to come as we near the 2030 ICE ban. 

The government’s announcement of an investment programme designed to increase the number of on-street charging points will ease some concerns. And the introduction of the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) manufacturing mandate – which obliges car makers to produce a given percentage of their total output as EVs – will contribute towards the official 2030 target by increasing the pool of EVs. 

However, with the EU proposing to allow manufacturers to continue selling ICE vehicles beyond its own 2035 deadline if they are adapted to use ‘green’ fuels, and with the scant appetite among British car owners for an outright ban on non-EV vehicles revealed by this research, the UK government needs to keep the pedal to the metal if its ambitions for an overhaul of the country’s private motoring fleet are to come to fruition.

https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/car-insurance/2030-internal-combustion-engine-ban/

JKenH

Difficult to reconcile these two stories.

Tesla reportedly using BYD batteries to build Model Y at Giga Berlin

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-reportedly-using-byd-batteries-to-build-model-y-at-giga-berlin-432SI-3073301

Tesla Begins 4680 cell Manufacturing At Giga Berlin Less Than A Year Since Start Of Construction

In addition to a state-of-the-art car factory which it inaugurated back in April, Tesla is also building the world’s biggest battery factory in Grunheide Germany. This battery factory, just in its initial phase, is expected to produce 100GWh of battery cells per year.

This number is enough to support a million vehicles annually. However, in the long run, according to Elon Musk, this number could rise to 250 to 300 GWh suggesting long-term production of 2.5 to 3 million vehicles per year just from Giga Berlin.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-begins-4680-cell-manufacturing-giga-berlin-less-year-start-construction

silverwhistle

JKenH said:

Imagine if you have 6 stops planned on your 845 mile trip, just how many opportunities there are for things to go wrong. 

EVs are great for trips within their range but long distance trips involving charging have the potential to be problematic and stressful and in my experience usually are. 

All long trips have the potential for being stressful, and although I wouldn't dispute the possibility of the situations you outlined in more detail I think one can cope with different from normal driving conditions with a bit of adaptability. My nearly 600 mile regular trips from/to Italy used to be done in a variety of small buzz boxes which were not the ideal vehicle, so occasional unplanned stops occurred due to fatigue and the need for the blessed silence and lack of vibration of turning the engine off!

None of this was a discouragement from actually doing the trips and I look forward to doing it in my EV at some stage, and will change my mindset to do so. Particularly when heading to the ferry from the mountains in winter I allowed plenty of time and never booked an overnight hotel until well in to my day's journey, so taking the same relaxed attitude will hopefully diminish possible stressors.

Looking at the improvements in French charging infrastructure even over the past year shows that changing your charging plans is now a lot easier. The same applies to trips to visit friends in Yorkshire; the new chargers at Leeming Bar, for example will be ideal for my purposes.

So although there are plenty of issues around EVs that need to be addressed the difficulties of long distance travel are not one that occupies my mind too much.

ABrass

JKenH said:

Difficult to reconcile these two stories.

Tesla reportedly using BYD batteries to build Model Y at Giga Berlin

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-reportedly-using-byd-batteries-to-build-model-y-at-giga-berlin-432SI-3073301

Tesla Begins 4680 cell Manufacturing At Giga Berlin Less Than A Year Since Start Of Construction

In addition to a state-of-the-art car factory which it inaugurated back in April, Tesla is also building the world’s biggest battery factory in Grunheide Germany. This battery factory, just in its initial phase, is expected to produce 100GWh of battery cells per year.

This number is enough to support a million vehicles annually. However, in the long run, according to Elon Musk, this number could rise to 250 to 300 GWh suggesting long-term production of 2.5 to 3 million vehicles per year just from Giga Berlin.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-begins-4680-cell-manufacturing-giga-berlin-less-year-start-construction

Not really.

Right now they're using BYD batteries because they need batteries and BYD have them. When/if BYD or Tesla's 4680 format production volumes get big enough they'll switch more vehicles over to 4680, or build and sell more vehicles and keep the blade batteries for the entry level model.

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Difficult to reconcile these two stories.

Tesla reportedly using BYD batteries to build Model Y at Giga Berlin

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-reportedly-using-byd-batteries-to-build-model-y-at-giga-berlin-432SI-3073301

Tesla Begins 4680 cell Manufacturing At Giga Berlin Less Than A Year Since Start Of Construction

In addition to a state-of-the-art car factory which it inaugurated back in April, Tesla is also building the world’s biggest battery factory in Grunheide Germany. This battery factory, just in its initial phase, is expected to produce 100GWh of battery cells per year.

This number is enough to support a million vehicles annually. However, in the long run, according to Elon Musk, this number could rise to 250 to 300 GWh suggesting long-term production of 2.5 to 3 million vehicles per year just from Giga Berlin.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-begins-4680-cell-manufacturing-giga-berlin-less-year-start-construction

Not really.

Right now they're using BYD batteries because they need batteries and BYD have them. When/if BYD or Tesla's 4680 format production volumes get big enough they'll switch more vehicles over to 4680, or build and sell more vehicles and keep the blade batteries for the entry level model.

Yes, and also, when the US Inflation Reduction Act was first announced, over a year ago, Tesla quickly pivoted and shifted 4680 investment from Germany, to increase production in the US. Thus delaying the roll out in Germany.

The IR Act penalises manufacturers for using batts / battery materials that don't come from the US or countries with the appropriate trade agreements. For example, that's why some of the Tesla Model 3 cars in the US only get half the $7,500 tax credit, and many imported BEV's don't get any.

Similarly, Tesla will be importing some Chinese made models into Canada, again to maximise the sales of vehicles in the US that have the largest tax credits.

JKenH

Ah, I see. I thought it was maybe a problem with the manufacture of the 4680 cells at the German plant. It’s not like Tesla to build a battery manufacturing plant and not use it. 

I am aware that Tesla gets a significant credit under the IRA for building batteries in the US, but the plan had always been to build 4680 batteries in Germany for the structural packs to go in the Model Y. It just seems strange to me that when they had got the German battery plant operational they shut it down and buy batteries from BYD instead. Maybe the BYD batteries work out significantly cheaper than Tesla’s own 4680 batteries for use in Germany but the $45/kWh tax credit available under the IRA makes the 4680 viable in the US. 

Mystery solved but it doesn’t bode well for the huge technical battery revolution the 4680 battery was going to be when it was announced on Battery Day.

Edit: this article gives more insight in to why Tesla may be abandoning 4680 cells in favour of BYD’s Blade batteries.

A more recent teardown by Sandy Munro (a company that specialises in teardown engineering analysis) has revealed something more worrying. You see, they found that the 4680 cells had a 100% graphite anode, a high cobalt concentration, and an energy density of only 244 Wh/kg.

This woeful energy density isn’t just miles below the target energy density of 296 Wh/kg but is actually worse than Tesla’s previous Panasonic-made 2170s, which achieved 269 Wh/kg. 

But this lower energy density has a knock-on effect. You see, each 4680 pack has 830 cells, and each cell weighs 355g. That means it has a pack weight (only of the individual cells and not the casing) of around 294 kg, and by using Sandy Munro’s energy density, we can calculate that this gives an overall pack capacity of just north of 71 kWh. As we know, each pack costs $7,400 to produce, which means we get a cost per kWh of $104.

Now, this is better than the old 2170, which cost around $130 to $140 per kWh, but it is still miles off Tesla’s goal of $60 per kWh.

Furthermore, waiting in the wings are CATL’s own sodium-ion battery (read more here) and BYD’s Blade Battery (read more here). Over the next year or two, both of these batteries will crush the 4680’s current cost and go on to eclipse Tesla’s $60 per kWh target. In fact, both could get below $50 per kWh! 

So, if Tesla wants to stay on top of the EV world, it needs to stop fiddling with its 4680 and instead become the first to adopt these breakthrough third-party cells that are already ahead of the 4680, allowing Tesla to focus on what it is good at: building EVs. Otherwise, other manufacturers will use these new cells, and they will leave Tesla and its 4680 pet project in the dust.

https://medium.com/predict/teslas-revolutionary-4680-has-a-massive-problem-8e89c18a59c8

ABrass

The reality of battery production is that there's enough demand for every type of chemistry and format that is being produced.

If something comes along in bulk and at a good price point Tesla, and every other manufacturer, will just purchase them and tweak a line or two to use them.

It's a lot less exciting than wondering if one manufacturer is going to 'crush' another, but it's the reality.