EV Discussion thread

ABrass

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Tesla, with the M3 and MY had such a compelling technical lead (range) 

Tesla's lead is two-fold:
1 - range, meaning the need to use charging away from home or other regular location (workplace etc) is much reduced.
2 - supercharger network, meaning that charging infrastructure is likely to be available when required.  Included in the supercharger network is the physical infrastructure plus the software package that manages the fleet and suggests where you might like to stop to charge that balances your available range with the likely demand on the supercharger provision

Tesla's price movements are following a "technology" model so price becoming ever more favourable as market penetration increases - think DVD player.

Except it hasn’t been one way traffic with prices rising before falling then rising again. 

Weather Vs climate. It's noise around a curve.

JKenH

Tesla cuts US prices for sixth time this year ahead of Q1 results

The Elon Musk-led company has cut U.S. prices of its base Model 3 by 11% so far this year and that of its base Model Y by 20%–moves that come as the United States, its largest market, prepares to introduce tougher standards that will limit EV tax credits.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-us-prices-ahead-earnings-report-2023-04-19/

Martyn1981

I wanted to take a fun guess at Tesla's gross margin for Q1, but can't get my head around all of the competing factors. The drop could be huge due to the price cuts, but Tesla have countered that claiming cost reductions. Also they did some heavy discounting in the US in late Q4 offering the equivalent of the incoming tax credit subsidy. Then we have the fact that the price cuts don't cover the whole of Q1 (but most of it), so the full impact may not be till Q2.

Lastly we have the comments from the Q4 earnings report (in January) where Tesla (I think it was Zach) suggested that even after the price cuts they expected to be above 20% gross margin. But it was a bit ambiguous, so may have meant 2023 full year, not Q1 2023?

So, a totally boring guess from me of ~20% GM.

But something I mentioned a while back, I think what's more important, from the Tesla results, is if costs have fallen enough to cover much of the price cuts, then that augurs well for BYD, since their price cuts this year are roughly equal to their profit per car. BYD being highly vertically integrated, plus Chinese based, could/should be in a good position to benefit from any and all falling costs.

I appreciate that BYD (and Tesla) are more focused on growing sales than profits at the moment, but I think the World needs a BYD - Tesla on their own isn't enough, and we need the growing threat from China, to help to force a faster change from western legacy auto (and Japanese) from a green and ethical point of view.

Hopefully there will be some good news on the growing storage side of Tesla, but overall I suspect a rather boring 'nothingburger', which might be a good thing atm. 

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

I wanted to take a fun guess at Tesla's gross margin for Q1, but can't get my head around all of the competing factors. The drop could be huge due to the price cuts, but Tesla have countered that claiming cost reductions. Also they did some heavy discounting in the US in late Q4 offering the equivalent of the incoming tax credit subsidy. Then we have the fact that the price cuts don't cover the whole of Q1 (but most of it), so the full impact may not be till Q2.

Lastly we have the comments from the Q4 earnings report (in January) where Tesla (I think it was Zach) suggested that even after the price cuts they expected to be above 20% gross margin. But it was a bit ambiguous, so may have meant 2023 full year, not Q1 2023?

So, a totally boring guess from me of ~20% GM.

But something I mentioned a while back, I think what's more important, from the Tesla results, is if costs have fallen enough to cover much of the price cuts, then that augurs well for BYD, since their price cuts this year are roughly equal to their profit per car. BYD being highly vertically integrated, plus Chinese based, could/should be in a good position to benefit from any and all falling costs.

I appreciate that BYD (and Tesla) are more focused on growing sales than profits at the moment, but I think the World needs a BYD - Tesla on their own isn't enough, and we need the growing threat from China, to help to force a faster change from western legacy auto (and Japanese) from a green and ethical point of view.

Hopefully there will be some good news on the growing storage side of Tesla, but overall I suspect a rather boring 'nothingburger', which might be a good thing atm. 

If Tesla did manage a 20% GM that wouldn't bode well for the rest of the industry which was already scratching around for a margin before the recent price cuts. Anything under 15% will cause a sigh of relief everywhere else in the industry.

My guess is in the 16-18% range.  

JKenH

Motor Ombudsman receives record EV complaints

Customer service and a consumer’s experience at the point of buying an electric car drove the majority of complaints, with dissatisfaction around cancellations and delays for the delivery and handover of new vehicle orders, incorrect vehicle specifications at the point of delivery due to parts shortages, and the miscommunication about the provenence of a vehicle when it was sold.

https://www.bodyshopmag.com/2023/news/motor-ombudsman-receives-record-ev-complaints/

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

 Anything under 15% will cause a sigh of relief everywhere else in the industry.

LOL - We'll hear that mighty sigh from our own living rooms, as it reverberates across the World. 

JKenH

Off-peak ultra-rapid charging drops by 15.6% since January

There has been a 15.6% reduction in off-peak ultra-rapid electric vehicle (EV) charging [prices] since the start of the year, according to the March 2023 AA EV Recharge Report.  

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2023/04/19/off-peak-ultra-rapid-charging-drops-by-156-since-january

JKenH

NISSAN’S X-IN-1: SMALLER, CHEAPER AND GREENER

…..news that Renault is physically testing its CMF-B platform with nine mules. It will form the basis of the new Renault 5, which looks fabulous. But, more important, the platform is 30% cheaper than the outgoing Zoe to make.

Renault isn’t alone. Nissan announced in March that its new ‘X-in-1’ powertrain packages will reduce driveline costs by 30% by 2026 compared with 2019. It also expects to achieve price parity between its hybrid e-Power models and conventional ICE models by the same date. Parity for EVs will come “eventually”, helped by the introduction of solid-state batteries.

Suggestion about Autocar 19th April 2023 page 15
https://go.readly.com/magazines/5321d063abb90f06c300001c/643e46abd71dc00008452423/15

JKenH

Posted for the quote, not the headline. 

Teslas are cheaper than ever and it's a creating a headache for the entire auto industry

Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect gross margins to fall slightly, to about 21% from nearly 24%, along with lower per-share earnings and revenue.  

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-ev-price-war-creating-headache-entire-auto-industry-2023-4

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I wanted to take a fun guess at Tesla's gross margin for Q1, but can't get my head around all of the competing factors. The drop could be huge due to the price cuts, but Tesla have countered that claiming cost reductions. Also they did some heavy discounting in the US in late Q4 offering the equivalent of the incoming tax credit subsidy. Then we have the fact that the price cuts don't cover the whole of Q1 (but most of it), so the full impact may not be till Q2.

Lastly we have the comments from the Q4 earnings report (in January) where Tesla (I think it was Zach) suggested that even after the price cuts they expected to be above 20% gross margin. But it was a bit ambiguous, so may have meant 2023 full year, not Q1 2023?

So, a totally boring guess from me of ~20% GM.

But something I mentioned a while back, I think what's more important, from the Tesla results, is if costs have fallen enough to cover much of the price cuts, then that augurs well for BYD, since their price cuts this year are roughly equal to their profit per car. BYD being highly vertically integrated, plus Chinese based, could/should be in a good position to benefit from any and all falling costs.

I appreciate that BYD (and Tesla) are more focused on growing sales than profits at the moment, but I think the World needs a BYD - Tesla on their own isn't enough, and we need the growing threat from China, to help to force a faster change from western legacy auto (and Japanese) from a green and ethical point of view.

Hopefully there will be some good news on the growing storage side of Tesla, but overall I suspect a rather boring 'nothingburger', which might be a good thing atm. 

If Tesla did manage a 20% GM that wouldn't bode well for the rest of the industry which was already scratching around for a margin before the recent price cuts. Anything under 15% will cause a sigh of relief everywhere else in the industry.

My guess is in the 16-18% range.  

Just realised I forgot a biggie - Gigas Berlin and Austin will have moved from heavy cash burners in Q4 and earlier, to something closer to neautral as the quarter progressed. Tesla seem to use an approx 5,000 cars per week figure to signify reaching 'mass production', which Berlin hit during the qtr, and Austin is now close to.