Energy news in general

pochase

Wb90 said:

Can anyone post the more reliable forecast please or how do I find it/who’s is it?

How do you define more reliable? Auxilione and Ci are nearly identical with their final October predications.

If I remember correctly the Auxilione forecast was already in late June/early July at £3300, while CI was slightly below £3000. It seemed to be ridiculous high.

They differ again with CI having the cheaper predictions, but I have no experience to say who is more reliable. We will see in January who guessed better.

I personally like Auxilione just to see daily where the market is moving, not because I believe them to guess better.

littleteapot

People forget that any long term forecast has inherent innacuracy which increases exponentially with the amount of time between today and T0. October 2022 forecasts are very accurate as now all the inputs are known. But Jan 2023 onwards is simply tea-leaf gazing. My long term tealeaf gazing tends to agree loosely with the Auxillione forecast as I expect a lot of people in the developed world to fail to recognise the gravity of the situation until at least the middle of this winter. From spring 2023 I expect consumption will reduce enough to lower wholesale prices. 

All of the above is pure speculation on my part, led only by personal obervtions over the last year or two, just like Auxillione and Cornwall Insights. The only advantage those speculators have over me is that they are potentially in receipt of insider information and data on related long term trends that I as a loner outside of the industry do not.

Of course the goverment could change the game completely by borrowing yet more money from future generation to protect the retired of today, just like they did during the covid era. I'm middle-aged now but since having children it brings me to tears to see that the current adult/elderly generations are selling the lives of future generations to make theirs more comfortable and profitable. I'd personally rather go without a car, heat and live on very basic food to protect the lives of future generations.

Wb90

Thanks, someone had a little spreadsheet with the predicted unit rates and SC’s for the January and April caps too.

bristolleedsfan

Wb90 said:

Thanks, someone had a little spreadsheet with the predicted unit rates and SC’s for the January and April caps too.

Worth bearing in mind how long January and April Cap  assessment periods have left to run 

https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1562771519494688768

Many headline horror predictions of £6,000 April energy cap for typical use.

Yet while Oct & Jan cap predictions are likely ball park,
April's sketchy as wholesale rate assessment doesn't start for months:
Oct cap's on 1 Feb-19 Aug
Jan cap 1 Feb-26 Nov
 April cap 17 Nov-17 Feb 23

Wb90

Understood. Just trying to gauge what’s expected. Assuming a 14.8p gas unit price announced in the morning for October, I think I would have to see the gas unit price jump to approx 24p/kWh in January and remain at or above that for the rest of the year to October 2023 before the fix rate I’ve just been offered by British Gas breaks even.

Thats on 17k gas 2350 electric worked out on a monthly basis using each of the actual meter readings for the last year.

Maybe we’ll be having heating parties this winter where we take it in turns to go to each other’s houses and sit in the warmth. Bring your own blanket  

bristolleedsfan

Wb90 said:

Thanks, someone had a little spreadsheet with the predicted unit rates and SC’s for the January and April caps too.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6307202/energy-news-in-general/p132

Sea_Shell

bristolleedsfan said:

Wb90 said:

Thanks, someone had a little spreadsheet with the predicted unit rates and SC’s for the January and April caps too.

Worth bearing in mind how long January and April Cap  assessment periods have left to run 

https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1562771519494688768

Many headline horror predictions of £6,000 April energy cap for typical use.

Yet while Oct & Jan cap predictions are likely ball park,
April's sketchy as wholesale rate assessment doesn't start for months:
Oct cap's on 1 Feb-19 Aug
Jan cap 1 Feb-26 Nov
 April cap 17 Nov-17 Feb 23

I read that yesterday and was confoosed    Has Martin got his dates wrong? 

Or is the assessment for Jan 23 cap based on 1st Feb 22, right through to 26 Nov 22

Is it not (as I have probably wrongly assumed) going to be from 20 Aug 22 to 26 Nov 22?

pochase

Wb90 said:

Thanks, someone had a little spreadsheet with the predicted unit rates and SC’s for the January and April caps too.

Do you mean this?


The above is calculated from the Cornwall Insights cap predictions.

Mstty

Here we go then

JoeCrystal

Hmm.... 

So basically my electricity bill will go from £44.60 per month to £71.30 per month and my gas bill from £16.12 per month to £25.38 per month (going to be much higher in winter though).