Energy news in general

pochase

sienew said:

Sea_Shell said:

pochase said:

The winner for the price forecast is Cornwall Insights, they were 0.13% to high, while Auxilione missed by 0.76%.

As we don't know yet what other adjustment made this is extremely precise and does not bode well for their other forecasts for next year.

Ofgem does not make any forecast, but warns already about higher prices.

Within 1%, is pretty accurate though.   Scarily, looking ahead!

It's not accurate longer term. 3 months ago they were predicting a 30% rise and it's actually 80% so I wouldn't put much value in predictions for January and April.

On 1st of June CI was predicting £2879, that is 47% and not 30%. 

GingerTim

News from France and Germany 

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1563072181059211264?s=20&t=HTXIEHq_bggqjHMxL7YHow

sienew

pochase said:

sienew said:

Sea_Shell said:

pochase said:

The winner for the price forecast is Cornwall Insights, they were 0.13% to high, while Auxilione missed by 0.76%.

As we don't know yet what other adjustment made this is extremely precise and does not bode well for their other forecasts for next year.

Ofgem does not make any forecast, but warns already about higher prices.

Within 1%, is pretty accurate though.   Scarily, looking ahead!

It's not accurate longer term. 3 months ago they were predicting a 30% rise and it's actually 80% so I wouldn't put much value in predictions for January and April.

On 1st of June CI was predicting £2879, that is 47% and not 30%. 

Ah. The 30% might have been a little longer than 3 months but the point still remains. I know when Martin Lewis made his "should I fix" video the predictions were around 30% as well.

Even 47% to 80% is a big difference.

pochase

Yes it is a big difference. But just look at the post one up with the new prices per MWh. How can anybody predict something like that? You can only react to it.

Of course we can ignore predictions completely. Next time somebody asks if they should fix we just send them to a web site with a dice. And yes  advice we are trying to give is not that far off sometimes.

At least the Ofgem cap announcement will be a complete surprise and much more exciting than it was today.

sienew

pochase said:

Yes it is a big difference. But just look at the post one up with the new prices per MWh. How can anybody predict something like that? You can only react to it.

Of course we can ignore predictions completely. Next time somebody asks if they should fix we just send them to a web site with a dice. And yes  advice we are trying to give is not that far off sometimes.

At least the Ofgem cap announcement will be a complete surprise and much more exciting than it was today.

Yes. You are right. Nobody can predict it accurately at the moment. It is an interesting metric to track.

Just some people earlier were suggesting that todays cap being the same as CI's latest prediction suggests that their prediction for January/April will probably also be accurate and that isn't the case. My point was simply that CI's prediction over the last few weeks was right because they had all the data but 3 months ago (which is the time until the next cap announcement) they were predicting very different figures so Jan's figures can be very wrong.

brewerdave

I'll make a prediction - if the cap reaches £7k pa by next Oct. a hell of a lot of trees will have been chopped down ,ready to burn in the oil drums that will appear on most street corners (obviously not Kensington and Chelsea!)

pochase

If you look at the Auxilione daily predictions I posted for the last two weeks nobody can say they can be in  any way accurate, they are going up (and sometimes down) by several hundred pound a day.

Unfortunately it seems the prices are still going up, and the post from @GingerTim just now will affect the Auxilione prediction on Monday.

At a certain point there seems to be not that much difference if the cap prediction is £6600 or £7400, both is unaffordable.

tghe-retford

We are being mocked by Russia while we face a catastrophe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62652133

[Deleted User]

tghe-retford said:

We are being mocked by Russia while we face a catastrophe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62652133

Russia are having to burn (for free) one of their main sources of income because they can't sell it to anyone.  

aaiiee

Apologies if it's been asked before, but does anyone understand why predictions are that energy costs will still be rising next summer  when a) it will be summer in the northern hemisphere so usage will reduce and b) everyone one will have had months to cut usage and increase production as much as possible and c) we will be in the middle of a worldwide recession?