Energy news in general

bristolleedsfan

Regional SC/kWh rates from 1 Ocober are on this link What are the price cap unit rates? (moneysavingexpert.com)

pochase

Wb90 said:

What we’re their predictions 3 months ago? That would be interesting to see.

Not really possible to look at it this way.

The review period of the market only ended a week ago, so all changes in the last 3 months affected the cap. So if you don't know what will happen in the next three month on the world market you cannot make a valid prediction. Three month ago they were a few months into the period used for the calculations.

It will get worse soon when the review period will go down to three months instead of six. Even now the predictions are fluctuating from day to day by huge amounts.

I would say for the last 4 weeks the predictions started to become pretty accurate.

pochase

And to confirm what I just wrote here todays forecast from Auxilione. Extreme changes of several hundred pounds for the upcoming 2023 caps.



Can anybody enlighten me why they believe electricity standing charge will come down in April? I thought the cost for the SOLR process was supposed to be added for two years?

GingerTim

I wonder when we will see the first fixed tariff with a rate of £1/kwh of electricity. It surely can't be far off.

QrizB

pochase said:

Wb90 said:

What we’re their predictions 3 months ago? That would be interesting to see.

Not really possible to look at it this way.

It is entirely possible.

Either CI Auxiilone and their ilk are good at making predictions 3+ months ahead and their forecasts have value;

Or they can only make accurate predictions at the end of the pricing period and we can safely ignore anything they say today regarding January and beyond.

If we look back at what they were predicting in May and June for October, we can decide which of those two statements is most likely to be true.

sienew

Sea_Shell said:

pochase said:

The winner for the price forecast is Cornwall Insights, they were 0.13% to high, while Auxilione missed by 0.76%.

As we don't know yet what other adjustment made this is extremely precise and does not bode well for their other forecasts for next year.

Ofgem does not make any forecast, but warns already about higher prices.

Within 1%, is pretty accurate though.   Scarily, looking ahead!

It's not accurate longer term. 3 months ago they were predicting a 30% rise and it's actually 80% so I wouldn't put much value in predictions for January and April.

wakeupalarm

Experts warn utility bills could top £7000 next year

Experts at energy consultancy Auxilione warned that the cap could double even from that record high by April next year, hitting £7,263

spot1034

wakeupalarm said:

Experts warn utility bills could top £7000 next year

Experts at energy consultancy Auxilione warned that the cap could double even from that record high by April next year, hitting £7,263

'Could', not will. Equally, a lowering of international tensions and/or a mild winter in Europe 'could' lead to prices falling. 

No one knows at the moment.

[Deleted User]

"Prices could be somewhere between massive £££ and tiny ££" doesn't really make a good headline unfortunately.

pochase

wakeupalarm said:

Experts warn utility bills could top £7000 next year

Experts at energy consultancy Auxilione warned that the cap could double even from that record high by April next year, hitting £7,263

Cornwall Insights is not that far off with £6614 for April 2023.