Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Zola. said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

Something like this?

It is worth remembering that the global reserve fiat currencies typically only last 100 years. Fiat currencies have historically recorded an average life span of 27 years. If history repeats itself, then the USD is fast approaching its “use by date”. It is little wonder that many are preparing not just for the inevitable loss of the dollar's reserve status but also the demise of the currency itself.

Source: https://monetarygold.com/global-reserve-fiat-currencies/#:~:text=Global reserve currencies have historically,a fiat global reserve currency.
 
It's also interesting to see how debt has grown since going off the gold standard in 1971. 

According to the article, the pound only lasted until 1920. So worth seeing what happened to the UK stockmarket in its wake. Yes there was a correction in 1920-21, but the rest of that decade was positive. The period really doesn't jump out as being remarkable at all. It doesn't even bear comparison to the 1970s or 2008. While it is entirely within the realms of possibility that the Yuan will take over at some point, but I don't think history points to that leading to a collapse of stockmarkets or the end of the incumbent currency, just as didn't happen for the UK market or pound sterling.

However, on valuation terms alone, it would be a fair supposition that the US market is not going to continue to outperform the rest of the world. For a long time it has behaved like an emerging market, which isn't sustainable. Even after the recent drop, 10 year returns from here are likely to be depressed compared to the past. That is not to say further spurts of frothy growth are not possible.

Type_45

What are the British equivalent of:

- TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)?  Which ETF in the UK equates to that?

-  XLP ETF (a basket of consumer staples which people must buy).

- Also:  How best to invest in energy, as a UK investor?  And more particularly oil?


(Regarding energy/oil, have you seen Saudi Arabia's GDP lately, compared with the rest of the world?)

Prism

Type_45 said:

What are the British equivalent of:

- TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)?  Which ETF in the UK equates to that?

-  XLP ETF (a basket of consumer staples which people must buy).

- Also:  How best to invest in energy, as a UK investor?  And more particularly oil?


(Regarding energy/oil, have you seen Saudi Arabia's GDP lately, compared with the rest of the world?)

Index-linked Gilts. There are a couple of ETFs but both are pretty long duration and have fallen a good deal this year. One is INXG which is -25% YTD. Vanguard and L&G also have funds (not ETFs).

The closest to that ETF is probably SXLP which we can buy here. You might want to look at a global fund though as plenty of consumer staples stocks are in the UK and Europe such as WCOD

Type_45

UK inflation hits 9.1%.  And the markets are a bloodbath.

Good morning.

Alistair31

Oil dropping 

lozzy1965

Type_45 said:

UK inflation hits 9.1%.  And the markets are a bloodbath.

Good morning.

Thank you for that in depth financial analysis. FYI they were up a bit yesterday they are down a bit today.

grumiofoundation

lozzy1965 said:

Type_45 said:

UK inflation hits 9.1%.  And the markets are a bloodbath.

Good morning.

Thank you for that in depth financial analysis. FYI they were up a bit yesterday they are down a bit today.

We all know Type_45 doesn't look at the markets on green days. Hence no post yesterday that S and P up >2%

If drops 2% today - we will be treated to an 'S and P is a bloodbath' post. Hence, despite how transparent what they are doing it, Type_45 can convince themselves their prediction is coming to pass and they are an economic guru. 

lozzy1965

grumiofoundation said:

lozzy1965 said:

Type_45 said:

UK inflation hits 9.1%.  And the markets are a bloodbath.

Good morning.

Thank you for that in depth financial analysis. FYI they were up a bit yesterday they are down a bit today.

We all know Type_45 doesn't look at the markets on green days. Hence no post yesterday that S and P up >2%

If drops 2% today - we will be treated to an 'S and P is a bloodbath' post. Hence, despite how transparent what they are doing it, Type_45 can convince themselves their prediction is coming to pass and they are an economic guru. 

Ahhhhh, I've just worked it out and I think Type_45 is correct after all!  The 80% drop prediction is the sum of all the 'drops'!  So 1.8 here, 2 there and before long we have got to 80.  The index is at +10% by then but hey, there was, in a sense, a sort of 80% drop!

Swipe

Type_45 said:

UK inflation hits 9.1%.  And the markets are a bloodbath.

Good morning.

Almost recovered from the 8am drop

Zola.

Is this thread going to go on forever every up and every down as it fits the bull and bear narrative?  

I thought the bitcoin thread was getting boring...