Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

On green days like today they are putting word out (probably via the very "experts" who get quoted on this forum) that the bottom is in to keep people invested. Meanwhile, they are getting their money out.

It is indeed another green day (FTSE100 up 1.65% as I type), but I haven't seen any expert saying we've hit the bottom - can you provide links to any?

Charts suggest this week could be a ‘key moment’ for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says

“Eventually the bears will run out of firepower and some of the money sitting on the sidelines will come back into the market,” the “Mad Money” host said. “This is a bullish scenario, people.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/cramer-charts-suggest-this-week-could-be-a-key-moment-for-sp-500.html

If I read that correctly, he's saying that IF S&P500 falls to 3500 then it could be a buying opportunity, not that we're at the bottom now.

"But without the recovery, the index could plunge to its next floor of support around 3,550, said Cramer.

"But, and this is a very big but, if we do get a decline to the 3,500s, she thinks that would be a buying opportunity. Of course, she could be wrong," Cramer said."

It all amounts to the same thing.  They are trying to keep people invested, and to buy even more if there is a dip, whilst the smart money exits the markets in an orderly fashion.

Type_45

Lagarde is being worryingly honest here...


Europe faces 'severe' risk of disorderly financial market correction: Lagarde

“While the correction in asset prices has so far been orderly, the risk of a further and possibly abrupt fall in asset prices remains severe…”


https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-faces-severe-risk-disorderly-financial-market-correction-lagarde-2022-06-20/ 

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

On green days like today they are putting word out (probably via the very "experts" who get quoted on this forum) that the bottom is in to keep people invested. Meanwhile, they are getting their money out.

It is indeed another green day (FTSE100 up 1.65% as I type), but I haven't seen any expert saying we've hit the bottom - can you provide links to any?

Charts suggest this week could be a ‘key moment’ for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says

“Eventually the bears will run out of firepower and some of the money sitting on the sidelines will come back into the market,” the “Mad Money” host said. “This is a bullish scenario, people.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/cramer-charts-suggest-this-week-could-be-a-key-moment-for-sp-500.html

If I read that correctly, he's saying that IF S&P500 falls to 3500 then it could be a buying opportunity, not that we're at the bottom now.

"But without the recovery, the index could plunge to its next floor of support around 3,550, said Cramer.

"But, and this is a very big but, if we do get a decline to the 3,500s, she thinks that would be a buying opportunity. Of course, she could be wrong," Cramer said."

It all amounts to the same thing.  They are trying to keep people invested

I think you're misreading that particular article. It's not saying 'we're at the bottom so stay invested', it's saying the analyst thinks it could either recover or fall further (amazing huh!) - and that if it fell further then it might be a buying opportunity.

On the other hand I have seen advice in multiple places saying that buy high and sell low is a bad strategy, and staying invested is a good idea if that's what your plan was - but this is nothing to do with being at the bottom of a market, it's purely about the chances of making gains if you stay longer in the market and how that's the case regardless of whether you're at a local top or bottom.

InvesterJones

InvesterJones said:

On the other hand I have seen advice in multiple places saying that buy high and sell low is a bad strategy, and staying invested is a good idea if that's what your plan was - but this is nothing to do with being at the bottom of a market, it's purely about the chances of making gains if you stay longer in the market and how that's the case regardless of whether you're at a local top or bottom.

For example:
https://youtu.be/mzIRsTc1h68

london21

I am tempted to top up on my funds.

currently in the red but long term, but then again don't know what will happen in the next 12-36 months. 

Type_45

It's going to take a lot of mental fortitude to resist the bear market rallies.  Some of them will be face-ripping.  The FOMO will be intense.  Hold the line.

Type_45

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

Changing your tune?

bd10

I'm a buyer at 1900 levels for the S&P. We've just begun the hiking cycle, that's quite some milage to go. Powell evaded the question whether the Fed would be willing to accept a recession. Well, according to history, with US inflation > 4.5%, they never had a soft landing. I do not think that this is priced in by retail folks. They'd been buying during Q1 still. I'd just wait for the tide to turn and them to sell. This straight line in the Forbes article I think is a tad optimistic. Well, let's see.

masonic

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.