Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

InvesterJones

InvesterJones said:

On the other hand I have seen advice in multiple places saying that buy high and sell low is a bad strategy, and staying invested is a good idea if that's what your plan was - but this is nothing to do with being at the bottom of a market, it's purely about the chances of making gains if you stay longer in the market and how that's the case regardless of whether you're at a local top or bottom.

For example:
https://youtu.be/mzIRsTc1h68

london21

I am tempted to top up on my funds.

currently in the red but long term, but then again don't know what will happen in the next 12-36 months. 

Type_45

It's going to take a lot of mental fortitude to resist the bear market rallies.  Some of them will be face-ripping.  The FOMO will be intense.  Hold the line.

Type_45

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

Changing your tune?

bd10

I'm a buyer at 1900 levels for the S&P. We've just begun the hiking cycle, that's quite some milage to go. Powell evaded the question whether the Fed would be willing to accept a recession. Well, according to history, with US inflation > 4.5%, they never had a soft landing. I do not think that this is priced in by retail folks. They'd been buying during Q1 still. I'd just wait for the tide to turn and them to sell. This straight line in the Forbes article I think is a tad optimistic. Well, let's see.

masonic

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

Type_45

bd10 said:

I'm a buyer at 1900 levels for the S&P. We've just begun the hiking cycle, that's quite some milage to go. Powell evaded the question whether the Fed would be willing to accept a recession. Well, according to history, with US inflation > 4.5%, they never had a soft landing. I do not think that this is priced in by retail folks. They'd been buying during Q1 still. I'd just wait for the tide to turn and them to sell. This straight line in the Forbes article I think is a tad optimistic. Well, let's see.

As the new threads on this forum illustrate, some investors are just beginning to wake up to what's coming.  A few of them, little more than that, are just stirring in their sleep.   

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.