Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

bd10

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

I don't think there's a concerted effort as such. Neither do I think that anyone else really "knows" what will happen. I do remember than some banks saw retail money supporting the market in Q1, but hey, if every man and his dog is watching clips on YT and how to get rich quickly, I happily take the other side of that bet. Been there, twice before.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

renegade1

"Exactly when is harder to predict"

Precisely. This is your fail safe get out of jail free card that allows you to say whatever you want. You can just say it hasn't happened yet.

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

80% drop still guaranteed this year though right?

Is the new system going to come in the next 0-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years.

Just planning for the write of my mortgage and whether I should therefore bother overpaying. 

Grenage

Unless someone is shorting the market, any claims of a tremendous crash is just waffle.

Zola.

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

Something like this?

It is worth remembering that the global reserve fiat currencies typically only last 100 years. Fiat currencies have historically recorded an average life span of 27 years. If history repeats itself, then the USD is fast approaching its “use by date”. It is little wonder that many are preparing not just for the inevitable loss of the dollar's reserve status but also the demise of the currency itself.

Source: https://monetarygold.com/global-reserve-fiat-currencies/#:~:text=Global reserve currencies have historically,a fiat global reserve currency.
 
It's also interesting to see how debt has grown since going off the gold standard in 1971. 

Type_45

Zola. said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

It is worth remembering that the global reserve fiat currencies typically only last 100 years. Fiat currencies have historically recorded an average life span of 27 years. If history repeats itself, then the USD is fast approaching its “use by date”. It is little wonder that many are preparing not just for the inevitable loss of the dollar's reserve status but also the demise of the currency itself.

Source: https://monetarygold.com/global-reserve-fiat-currencies/#:~:text=Global reserve currencies have historically,a fiat global reserve currency.
 
It's also interesting to see how debt has grown since going off the gold standard in 1971. 

Exactly.  And after it's happened everyone will be an expert on how they saw it coming.  

masonic

Zola. said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

S&P 500 Crash 2022: Here Comes The Bottom

"The stock market crash isn’t over, but it’s getting close to the end."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2022/06/16/sp-500-crash-2022-here-comes-the-bottom/?sh=66917b124de2 

This really does look amateurish when posted after the much more thoughtful Pensioncraft forward P/E analysis, showing just how much further the S&P500 would have to fall to reach equivalent GFC levels. The assumption that it won't fall below the 10 year trend line gets rather blown away by the Covid crash.

One would be forgiven for thinking, as I do, that there's a concerted effort to keep us investors in the market even though it's known by the industry what is going to happen (a huge crash).

There are always people who will publish things in order to try to manipulate prices. Whether that's to drive up prices when they are looking to sell, or drive down prices when they are looking for a good entry point. It can work for individual shares of rather obscure companies. Nobody knows what is going to happen. At best they can map out a range of plausible outcomes based on what has come before. Obviously you're the exception to that, and we're lucky to have your counsel that markets will definitely still fall 80% from their peak before the year is out.

I'm predicting a lot more than the 80% crash. Currency collapse and a new financial system. Exactly when is harder to predict. Yes, I think this year. But what's going to happen (financial Armageddon) is a lot easier to call than when it will happen.

Something like this?

It is worth remembering that the global reserve fiat currencies typically only last 100 years. Fiat currencies have historically recorded an average life span of 27 years. If history repeats itself, then the USD is fast approaching its “use by date”. It is little wonder that many are preparing not just for the inevitable loss of the dollar's reserve status but also the demise of the currency itself.

Source: https://monetarygold.com/global-reserve-fiat-currencies/#:~:text=Global reserve currencies have historically,a fiat global reserve currency.
 
It's also interesting to see how debt has grown since going off the gold standard in 1971. 

According to the article, the pound only lasted until 1920. So worth seeing what happened to the UK stockmarket in its wake. Yes there was a correction in 1920-21, but the rest of that decade was positive. The period really doesn't jump out as being remarkable at all. It doesn't even bear comparison to the 1970s or 2008. While it is entirely within the realms of possibility that the Yuan will take over at some point, but I don't think history points to that leading to a collapse of stockmarkets or the end of the incumbent currency, just as didn't happen for the UK market or pound sterling.

However, on valuation terms alone, it would be a fair supposition that the US market is not going to continue to outperform the rest of the world. For a long time it has behaved like an emerging market, which isn't sustainable. Even after the recent drop, 10 year returns from here are likely to be depressed compared to the past. That is not to say further spurts of frothy growth are not possible.

Type_45

What are the British equivalent of:

- TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)?  Which ETF in the UK equates to that?

-  XLP ETF (a basket of consumer staples which people must buy).

- Also:  How best to invest in energy, as a UK investor?  And more particularly oil?


(Regarding energy/oil, have you seen Saudi Arabia's GDP lately, compared with the rest of the world?)

Prism

Type_45 said:

What are the British equivalent of:

- TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)?  Which ETF in the UK equates to that?

-  XLP ETF (a basket of consumer staples which people must buy).

- Also:  How best to invest in energy, as a UK investor?  And more particularly oil?


(Regarding energy/oil, have you seen Saudi Arabia's GDP lately, compared with the rest of the world?)

Index-linked Gilts. There are a couple of ETFs but both are pretty long duration and have fallen a good deal this year. One is INXG which is -25% YTD. Vanguard and L&G also have funds (not ETFs).

The closest to that ETF is probably SXLP which we can buy here. You might want to look at a global fund though as plenty of consumer staples stocks are in the UK and Europe such as WCOD