Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

GazzaBloom

Type_45 said:

A 500g tub of Lurpak in my local Tesco is now £5.05.

Food inflation will get a whole lot worse. 

My wife went into our local Tesco Express a couple of weeks ago and was confronted with the same price for Lurpak, she walked out and went to ASDA and got it for £3.50. I picked some up at ASDA this week for £4.00, so prices are changing weekly so it seems across a whole range of items.

To be fair the Tesco main supermarket is a lot cheaper than the local petrol station Tesco Expess which appears to be following an inflationary price index all of their own.

On a separate note my employer agreed a 2 year pay deal with the union representing the operations staff in January, with the 2023 pay award being set at 3 months average CPI across October/November/.December 2022 + 0.25%. That's looking likely to be 10-11% once the fuel cap increase kicks in. I did suggest to other managers in January that the company may have missed a trick by not adding by a cap at say 5%

It will be interesting to see if they try and row back from it...

Unfortunately, I'm not in the same collective bargaining arrangement, so likely to get less!

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

A 500g tub of Lurpak in my local Tesco is now £5.05.

Food inflation will get a whole lot worse. 

My wife went into our local Tesco Express a couple of weeks ago and was confronted with the same price for Lurpak, she walked out and went to ASDA and got it for £3.50. I picked some up at ASDA this week for £4.00, so prices are changing weekly so it seems.

To be fair the Tesco main supermarket is a lot cheaper than the local petrol station Tesco Expess which appears to be following an inflationary price index all of their own.

Yep - shop at the big stores.  Not the Expresses or petrol stations.  Or go to Lidl etc.

Zola.

Its a good opportunity to shop smarter and healthier. 

lozzy1965

Zola. said:

Its a good opportunity to shop smarter and healthier. 

Often the cheapest food is the least healthy unfortunately   I might become a hippie and live off lentils for a year or two! 

anonmoose

I agree lozzy. We eat a very healthy diet overall but the healthier ingredients are often the most expensive.  Extra virgin olive oil, oily fish, nuts, avocado etc are all expensive.   But saying that for those who buy takeaways and ready meals then its very easy to make cheaper healthier alternatives.

Zola.

Agreed @lozzy1965

However healthy stuff can be cheap too. Fresh greens are typically cheap and they are the best things for you. 

The thing that I have noticed going up the most in my weekly shop is good quality meat and dairy products. 

GazzaBloom

Swipe said:

Zola. said:

Did your portfolio get rebalanced in good time to suit your retiree status?

I'm 40% cash so well placed for any big downturn.

40% cash in a portfolio is a surefire way to lose money to inflation and will drag future returns down. If a portfolio is satisfactory positioned for the long term and a safe withdrawal rate set for the long term, you don't need cash, despite the current emotional driven sense that we should have cash on hand (which is a lure we all feel)

Swipe

GazzaBloom said:

Swipe said:

Zola. said:

Did your portfolio get rebalanced in good time to suit your retiree status?

I'm 40% cash so well placed for any big downturn.

40% cash in a portfolio is a surefire way to lose money to inflation and will drag future returns down. If a portfolio is satisfactory positioned for the long term and a safe withdrawal rate set for the long term, you don't need cash.

Tell that to the £120K I'm down already. I have more than enough for retirement it if goes back up.  And more than enough if it keeps going down another 30%. I see no point in gambling money on a recovery by putting it all in now as a lump sum.

masonic

I think 40% cash could be justified in the scenario where bonds were clearly going to tumble when interest rates began to be hiked. A 60:40 portfolio might as well have been 100% equities for where we find ourselves today. Several of us had discussions towards the end of last year about the returns-free risk offered by bonds, little did we know how well timed those conversations happened to be.

Type_45

masonic said:

I think 40% cash could be justified in the scenario where bonds were clearly going to tumble when interest rates began to be hiked. A 60:40 portfolio might as well have been 100% equities for where we find ourselves today. Several of us had discussions towards the end of last year about the returns-free risk offered by bonds, little did we know how well timed those conversations happened to be.

VLS100 has outperformed VLS60 this year in a declining equities market.