Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

masonic said:

I think 40% cash could be justified in the scenario where bonds were clearly going to tumble when interest rates began to be hiked. A 60:40 portfolio might as well have been 100% equities for where we find ourselves today. Several of us had discussions towards the end of last year about the returns-free risk offered by bonds, little did we know how well timed those conversations happened to be.

Yeah you're right, as a replacement for bonds then a cash percentage makes sense as a volatility reducer, but, it will lose value and effectiveness over the the long term, say 20 years.

A large cash "buffer" doesn't make sense if held in addition to a say 60/40 stocks bonds portfolio.

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

shortseller09

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Oh, so this is just a normal bear market then...? When does the new financial system come into effect?

Type_45

I think commodities may have peaked for now. 

The fund I sold (CMFP) seems to be struggling of late. 

Type_45

shortseller09 said:

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Oh, so this is just a normal bear market then...? When does the new financial system come into effect?

Not a normal bear market. Sri Lanka's economy has "completely collapsed" according to its Prime Minister. They are the first domino to fall. We will see things we've never seen before.

If you want to ride your equities all the way down to 80% downside of their peak then go right ahead. Or even 60% or 70%.

But I don't want to overstate things either. The sun will still rise. We will get through it. Life will go on. 

In the meantime, stock up on food. You don't need to go crazy. Just have a month of food per person. And look at where you can park your savings/investments so that you can sleep at night.

lozzy1965

Type_45 said:

shortseller09 said:

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Oh, so this is just a normal bear market then...? When does the new financial system come into effect?

Not a normal bear market. Sri Lanka's economy has "completely collapsed" according to its Prime Minister. They are the first domino to fall. We will see things we've never seen before.

If you want to ride your equities all the way down to 80% downside of their peak then go right ahead. Or even 60% or 70%.

But I don't want to overstate things either. The sun will still rise. We will get through it. Life will go on. 

In the meantime, stock up on food. You don't need to go crazy. Just have a month of food per person. And look at where you can park your savings/investments so that you can sleep at night.

More great advice thanks!

Type_45

Another red day for FTSE after a promising start. FTSE 100 down 0.97%. FTSE 250 down 1.05%.

Up days and down days. But the trend is down.

renegade1

Type_45 said:

Another red day for FTSE after a promising start. FTSE 100 down 0.97%. FTSE 250 down 1.05%.

Up days and down days. But the trend is down.

gold miners 3x as bad as that... down 3%
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-ucits-etf

Swipe

Type_45 said:

I think commodities may have peaked for now. 

The fund I sold (CMFP) seems to be struggling of late. 

Where will you store that money now?

Bobziz

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

I think commodities may have peaked for now. 

The fund I sold (CMFP) seems to be struggling of late. 

Where will you store that money now?

Under the bed next to the beans ?

Type_45

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

I think commodities may have peaked for now. 

The fund I sold (CMFP) seems to be struggling of late. 

Where will you store that money now?

It's sitting in cash in my S&S account at the moment.