Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Type_45 said:

What's going on here?

Rate decision day. It's sorted itself out now. Japan won't be following other economies into a rate hike cycle, at least not for the time being.

Type_45

How many times does a bear market come up for air with rallies as it sinks to the bottom?

John464

Notepad_Phil said:

masonic said:
... VWRL has now closed 4.81% down today, and it seems that's been shared out globally. I don't think it has fallen that far in a single day since the depths of the Covid crash, so it certainly feels like there is plenty of fear in the markets.

Though didn't VWRL go ex-dividend today, so at least some of the fall will reflect the dividend that will be paid out.

I retired a few years before covid and remember tracking VWRL during the covid crash, waiting to see whether it would fall far enough to consider using some of my retirement cash savings to buy into it to get a nice yield. I see it's still approx 30% above the price it got to at the low point, so it may be a while before I'll consider buying into it.

What if it never falls below the current price, and continues to rise
How much more would it have to rise before you consider buying in?

sevenhills

The FTSE all share is now at the same level it was five years ago.
How does that compare, historically? Once it's hit bottom, surely there will be a lot of room for increases.

Prism

sevenhills said:

The FTSE all share is now at the same level it was five years ago.
How does that compare, historically? Once it's hit bottom, surely there will be a lot of room for increases.

It doesn't mean much. In March 2020 it dropped below the value it was in March 2000. That hasn't stopped investors making plenty of money along the way.

InvesterJones

FTSE 100 is in the green today, FTSE 250 up 1.73% as I type. Or do we not get commentary on green days?

Notepad_Phil

John464 said:

Notepad_Phil said:

masonic said:
... VWRL has now closed 4.81% down today, and it seems that's been shared out globally. I don't think it has fallen that far in a single day since the depths of the Covid crash, so it certainly feels like there is plenty of fear in the markets.

Though didn't VWRL go ex-dividend today, so at least some of the fall will reflect the dividend that will be paid out.

I retired a few years before covid and remember tracking VWRL during the covid crash, waiting to see whether it would fall far enough to consider using some of my retirement cash savings to buy into it to get a nice yield. I see it's still approx 30% above the price it got to at the low point, so it may be a while before I'll consider buying into it.

What if it never falls below the current price, and continues to rise
How much more would it have to rise before you consider buying in?

If  I had still been in my accumulating phase then I'd have been quite happy to be continuing with my regular monthly purchasing of pension and ISA investments in such funds as VWRL regardless of price - which I did throughout that stage of my life.

However I'm in the lucky position of being early-retired and could live very happily with my portfolio at the current (or even much lower) levels, so if the price never drops then I'll be quite content to just stick with what I already have - though I have to admit that I have started to convert some of my incoming cash into VLS60 and HSBC Global Strategy Balanced on a regular monthly basis now that interest rates have (in my opinion) made bonds look a bit more favourable than they were.

GSP

InvesterJones said:

FTSE 100 is in the green today, FTSE 250 up 1.73% as I type. Or do we not get commentary on green days?

Seems to be notable movements in just about everything on a daily basis.
All this money lost or down since November, where has it gone? Down a big black hole? Who has got it, or was it never there?

masonic

Type_45 said:

How many times does a bear market come up for air with rallies as it sinks to the bottom?

Large drops like the one experienced yesterday are often followed by a partial reversal. Wouldn't even go so far as to call today a bear market rally. We won't know the bottom even when we see it.

masonic

GSP said:

InvesterJones said:

FTSE 100 is in the green today, FTSE 250 up 1.73% as I type. Or do we not get commentary on green days?

Seems to be notable movements in just about everything on a daily basis.
All this money lost or down since November, where has it gone? Down a big black hole? Who has got it, or was it never there?

The only money gained or lost is by those trading. The movements are the market's best guess as to what assets are currently worth. It would be an error to equate price to value. Assets might have previously been overvalued, and might become undervalued. Each trade involves two parties, and one will tend to get a better deal than the other, resulting in a transfer of wealth from one to the other. Those who facilitate each trade will make some money each time. Meanwhile, those assets are going to deliver fluctuating returns based on the economic conditions and interest rates, changing their intrinsic value.

Money itself is losing value due to inflation and currency speculation, so even this isn't free of movement. It just happens we measure everything else using out local currency as if it were constant.