Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

GazzaBloom said:

I guess there may be another 10-20% drop to go until we can think about a bottom. We may see complete capitulation and despair before the dawn breaks

That might not take very long the way things are going

ChilliBob

Well I jumped in with a biggish chunk of a global index on Tuesday and got the best price I'd had for 12 months. Looks like the same could be said for tomorrow's price too :0

GazzaBloom

When statistics and history shows that holding and buying more when stock values drop, who is selling and why to drop the market? Aren't the sellers locking in losses? Where does the money go? Is it the institutions/hedge funds?

Type_45

VWRP closed 4.07% down.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

VWRP is down 3.38%.

GBP priced VWRL is down 4.4%. Strengthening of the pound today is adding to the pain for UK investors. Both down around 15% from their peak. Buying opportunity for the melt-up?

Quite possibly, but this is very hard to time right. The next few months/year will make and break many investors.

masonic

GazzaBloom said:

When statistics and history shows that holding and buying more when stock values drop, who is selling and why to drop the market? Aren't the sellers locking in losses? Where does the money go? Is it the institutions/hedge funds?

There have been studies on this conducted using data from various markets. They tend to conclude that such trades placed during volatile markets transfer wealth from private investors to institutional investors. It won't just be them selling, but novice investors tend to underestimate how they will feel when they see their investments falling day after day, and the point where they can't bear it any more comes sooner than they think. Others who don't pay much attention to their investments receive a shock when they next check. You can see the panic setting in by the number of new threads started recently by OPs who are shocked at what has happened to their investments and asking what they should do. Some have financial advisers who have already tried and failed to reassure them. If you are of a nervous disposition, it must really hurt to wait until markets have already fallen 15-20% to decide this isn't for you. Though I suppose Type_45 could give them a silver lining that they'll be getting out before markets fall another 60%

VWRL has now closed 4.81% down today, and it seems that's been shared out globally. I don't think it has fallen that far in a single day since the depths of the Covid crash, so it certainly feels like there is plenty of fear in the markets.

GSP

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

VWRP is down 3.38%.

GBP priced VWRL is down 4.4%. Strengthening of the pound today is adding to the pain for UK investors. Both down around 15% from their peak. Buying opportunity for the melt-up?

Quite possibly, but this is very hard to time right. The next few months/year will make and break many investors.

Appears you are predicting a catastrophe of sorts. What do you suggest will happen to the broken investors?

Notepad_Phil

masonic said:
... VWRL has now closed 4.81% down today, and it seems that's been shared out globally. I don't think it has fallen that far in a single day since the depths of the Covid crash, so it certainly feels like there is plenty of fear in the markets.

Though didn't VWRL go ex-dividend today, so at least some of the fall will reflect the dividend that will be paid out.

I retired a few years before covid and remember tracking VWRL during the covid crash, waiting to see whether it would fall far enough to consider using some of my retirement cash savings to buy into it to get a nice yield. I see it's still approx 30% above the price it got to at the low point, so it may be a while before I'll consider buying into it.

masonic

Notepad_Phil said:

masonic said:
... VWRL has now closed 4.81% down today, and it seems that's been shared out globally. I don't think it has fallen that far in a single day since the depths of the Covid crash, so it certainly feels like there is plenty of fear in the markets.

Though didn't VWRL go ex-dividend today, so at least some of the fall will reflect the dividend that will be paid out.

I retired a few years before covid and remember tracking VWRL during the covid crash, waiting to see whether it would fall far enough to consider using some of my retirement cash savings to buy into it to get a nice yield. I see it's still approx 30% above the price it got to at the low point, so it'll be a while before I'll consider buying into it.

Yes, I didn't think to check for that! That's 65p of the price drop accounted for, so the underlying assets 'only' fell 4.02%.

Type_45

GSP said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

VWRP is down 3.38%.

GBP priced VWRL is down 4.4%. Strengthening of the pound today is adding to the pain for UK investors. Both down around 15% from their peak. Buying opportunity for the melt-up?

Quite possibly, but this is very hard to time right. The next few months/year will make and break many investors.

Appears you are predicting a catastrophe of sorts. What do you suggest will happen to the broken investors?

Are you sitting comfortably?