Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

GSP

Type_45 said:

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

Can’t predict numbers and dates, expect, think so, maybe. Ummm!

Sounds like the could, might, should, perhaps headlines I was reading about catastrophe’s that were sounded to happen around 2016/17. Immediate fall in house prices 10%-20% by the then Chancellor, never happened (that’s one I wished did happen!).

There’s just too many variables and interventions to say what will happen. It’s like the weather they can’t accurately predict more than 5 days because there are too many uncertainties, too many variables.

So many predictions from so called experts during ‘quieter’ times have gone wrong and their forecasts have been blown out of the water and out of date after just 3 months of forming then.

Good luck with your strategies, but there are probably people on here ‘taken in’ by your posts and at this time are looking for guidance to improve their position.

Just writing this as a warning to some.

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

You predicted an 80% drop  - are you reneging on that now? Or is 80 not a number ?

For someone who can't predict dates strange that in your next paragraph you give a date.  31 December is a date right?

Type_45

We are in a market which is clearly trending downwards and yet people are saying "buy the dip". We've also been told that in times of food shortages it's best not to have food in case it gets stolen...  But my strategy of storing food and having cash ready to buy back when the inevitable crash happens needs a "warning" sticker...  OK.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

We are in a market which is clearly trending downwards and yet people are saying "buy the dip".

No they're not. The only recommendations I've seen have been to not let emotion change your strategy.

Type_45

Don't let facts change your strategy either.

masonic

Type_45 said:

Don't let facts change your strategy either.

Which facts are those? If the strategy is to ride out the ups and downs on the basis that crashes are temporary, then no facts are being ignored. It's still your position that the crash will not be permanent, isn't it? Markets falling 80% from their peak on or before 31st December 2022 is a prediction, not a fact. If it happens, then it will become a fact, but it will then be too late to act. Likewise for the melt-up prior to the 80% crash.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph has published an article warning "We are on track for a currency crisis – and bankruptcy" due to the UK having the largest ever deficit, which again is just a prediction... one that puts cash under the same threat as equities, but not a temporary one. A rapid devaluation of the pound would give the appearance of a melt-up, as other assets hold their value rather better than your home currency. Assets won't have inflated in value, it's your cash that would be worth a lot less.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Don't let facts change your strategy either.

Which facts are those? If the strategy is to ride out the ups and downs on the basis that crashes are temporary, then no facts are being ignored. It's still your position that the crash will not be permanent, isn't it? Markets falling 80% from their peak on or before 31st December 2022 is a prediction, not a fact. If it happens, then it will become a fact, but it will then be too late to act. Likewise for the melt-up prior to the 80% crash.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph has published an article warning "We are on track for a currency crisis – and bankruptcy" due to the UK having the largest ever deficit, which again is just a prediction... one that puts cash under the same threat as equities, but not a temporary one. A rapid devaluation of the pound would give the appearance of a melt-up, as other assets hold their value rather better than your home currency. Assets won't have inflated in value, it's your cash that would be worth a lot less.

The facts we've already covered, such as this is the worst year ever so far for the NASDAQ, this is the worst year for the stock market since 1970, this is the worst year for bonds since (I can't remember, but many years).

We have policy errors such as Biden and the EU's energy policies, we have an ongoing war featuring a major oil, gas and wheat exporter, we have Biden weaponising the USD against Russia only for it to spectacularly backfire and hasten the demise of the USD as the global reserve currency, and we have the impending devaluation/destruction of the USD and GBP which I've mentioned many times and you've now informed me is now being written about in the MSM. Meanwhile the market is clearly in a downwards trend. Now is probably the time to short this market, not keep putting money into it.

Regarding the devaluation of the GBP and the appearance of assets rising in value: gold may (as happened in Weimar) rise in real terms at the same time as the GBP devalues thus compounding the upwards valuation of gold. Is there a story of how it was possible to purchase a house with a few ounces of gold at that time? (How would SGLN do if the GBP devalues?)

Swipe

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Don't let facts change your strategy either.

Which facts are those? If the strategy is to ride out the ups and downs on the basis that crashes are temporary, then no facts are being ignored. It's still your position that the crash will not be permanent, isn't it? Markets falling 80% from their peak on or before 31st December 2022 is a prediction, not a fact. If it happens, then it will become a fact, but it will then be too late to act. Likewise for the melt-up prior to the 80% crash.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph has published an article warning "We are on track for a currency crisis – and bankruptcy" due to the UK having the largest ever deficit, which again is just a prediction... one that puts cash under the same threat as equities, but not a temporary one. A rapid devaluation of the pound would give the appearance of a melt-up, as other assets hold their value rather better than your home currency. Assets won't have inflated in value, it's your cash that would be worth a lot less.

Now is probably the time to short this market, not keep putting money into it.

January was the time to short the market. I'd rather take my chances and start to buy back in slowly at this point.

bd10

I'd say we're about half way down with the S&P. Once around 3000 levels, I'll get interested again. Odds are we're already in a recession in the US, corporate earnings likely to disappoint in the coming quarter, so that'd be the second leg down.

As for shorting, I'll stay away from such adventures. Volatility is higher in downturns than rising markets, and these bear rallies are easier to see after the fact then when being in one, on top of which, puts are really expensive, well, word's gotten out it's a bear market. Right now, keeping my delta to market as low as possible, trying to earn a bit of alpha here and there, and keeping an eye on things.