Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

RyanHello said:

Adjusting for inflation, The S&P is down over 25%, Nasdaq down 35% and Crypto down 65%...and we are only half way through 2022..

It's going to get much, much worse. I can see the S&P going to 3000-3200.

S&P500 is down 12% in GBP terms, and GBP inflation (using the more generous RPI) is 6.1% between Dec-Jun, so down about 18% in GBP real terms

In USD terms it is down 20% nominal and just under 25% adjusted for US inflation.

We're already more than half way to 3000-3200, so how is that "much, much worse"? Type_45 has predicted an 80% drop before this year is out, which, from the peak of about 4800 at the beginning of the year, would put the S&P500 below 1000.

billy2shots

S&P (as a reference) 3500 and I'll start to buy. 3300 and I'm all in. 

Not trying to perfectly hit the bottom for risk of missing completely and believe the s&p500 finishes above 3300 this year. 

Swipe

I think a lot of people waiting for S&P to hit 3200 will miss the bottom this time around. I'm starting to buy back in slowly.

anonmoose

When people talk about buying in when the S&P hits a figure, are you talking about buying an S&P500 tracker eg VUSA or do people just use the S&P figure as a benchmark to decide when to buy back in with equities or global trackers in general?  Because if you buy large amounts of US then your portfolio becomes less balanced for the long term.  Or is this buying with the intention of selling once it hits a price?

I was intending on putting all my spare cash into global all cap if there are more drops, but is there an argument to put it in the S&P500?  

Stargunner

I think those that try to time the market just use the S&P as a benchmark. Those that dont try to time market just keep buying every month regardless of what the S&P is doing 

k6chris

Stargunner said:

I think those that try to time the market just use the S&P as a benchmark. Those that dont try to time market just keep buying every month regardless of what the S&P is doing 

I'm now dripfeeding into the funds / ETF that my portfolio needs to be balanced.  S&P level guessing is just for amusement!

Type_45

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

Quick question, what will you do if you are wrong and the Fed suddenly pivots in September and the bottom is in?

I believe the Fed will soon pivot.  And that this will spark a melt-up in asset prices.  Investors will pile in.  The good times are here again.  And then a massive crash will follow.

Type_45

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

GSP

Type_45 said:

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

Can’t predict numbers and dates, expect, think so, maybe. Ummm!

Sounds like the could, might, should, perhaps headlines I was reading about catastrophe’s that were sounded to happen around 2016/17. Immediate fall in house prices 10%-20% by the then Chancellor, never happened (that’s one I wished did happen!).

There’s just too many variables and interventions to say what will happen. It’s like the weather they can’t accurately predict more than 5 days because there are too many uncertainties, too many variables.

So many predictions from so called experts during ‘quieter’ times have gone wrong and their forecasts have been blown out of the water and out of date after just 3 months of forming then.

Good luck with your strategies, but there are probably people on here ‘taken in’ by your posts and at this time are looking for guidance to improve their position.

Just writing this as a warning to some.

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

k6chris said:

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

I can only point out what the macro trends are.  I can't predict numbers and dates.

I expect the Fed to pivot within Q3 and asset prices will surge and then crash.  Will it crash before 31 December?  I think so.  

But maybe the banksters will keep the QE going for a while longer to fill their boots with tax payer and small investor money before performing the rug pull which will send everything through the floor.

You predicted an 80% drop  - are you reneging on that now? Or is 80 not a number ?

For someone who can't predict dates strange that in your next paragraph you give a date.  31 December is a date right?