Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

coastline

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Any thoughts on this?:

I asked someone whether to keep cash in a S&S account or buy gold/silver tracking ETCs such as SSLN and SGLN.  His response:

"I wouldn't do it unless it were a very small proportion of my overall net assets. Why? Because there are significant (a) volatility and (b) liquidity risks with ETFs, esp. in our modern market environment. (a) means that these ETFs may not trade the way you are expecting in a major systemic sell-off, and (b) means - even worse - that you may not be able to sell in time if the SHTF."

In the 1987 crash the brokers simply took the phones off the hook. Basically it didn't matter what you had you couldn't trade. Even today on this MSE forum and other financial forums you hear posters saying they couldn't get a price on a busy day. That's when markets are moving just 5% or more. All platforms have their limitations although I haven't had this problem with mine.
Pretty understandable you wouldn't load up with much in SSLN and SGLN. Both are fair sized funds SSLN over £400m and SGLN a massive £13bn. Wouldn't have thought there'd be problems trading them and the spread would be reasonable. Do you hear of any major problems from investors regarding these. Might be but I've never heard of any.?
If you want to see historical prices during recent the volatility in February see below..

iShares Physical Gold ETC summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

iShares Physical Silver ETC summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

ETF's aren't favourites anyway there's even been a recent thread on here. There's issues with the compensation scheme for one. I would have thought sticking with the mainstream iShares and Vanguard camps isn't a bad way of using ETF's. VEVE,VWRL ,ISF to name a few. Have them in a tax wrapper, ISA or SIPP to save any problems. Domicile Ireland , physical replication and UK tax reporting status. See the factsheet for this information.

No, I've not heard of any problems with SSLN or SGLN. I've only heard people suggesting possible problems.

As far as I am aware, they are very large ETCs (as you alluded to), which are owned by BlackRock, and which claim to represent the amount of physical silver and gold the monetary value of the ETCs represents. 

Any reason that you mentioned that it's "understandable people wouldn't load up much with SSLN/SGLN?

Up to the individual as ever . Here's two situations with both ETF's. Unless you've got a system to trade or you're very nimble then longer term you might underperform. ? Capital Gearing Trust CGT looks pretty handy without going all in SP500.

iShares Physical Silver ETC, UK:SSLN Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:SSLN, iShares Physical Silver ETC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

iShares Physical Silver ETC, UK:SSLN Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:SSLN, iShares Physical Silver ETC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

iShares Physical Gold ETC, UK:SGLN Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:SGLN, iShares Physical Gold ETC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

iShares Physical Gold ETC, UK:SGLN Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:SGLN, iShares Physical Gold ETC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

The idea of being nimble can be seen here since the start of the year. Fears of inflation and then the crisis. SGLN up nearly 20% then gives up half the gain since. At what point do you switch from SP500 to SGLN ? I wouldn't of known to be honest.

iShares Physical Gold ETC, UK:SGLN Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:SGLN, iShares Physical Gold ETC Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

coastline

Blink and you miss it . Is that it or are they waiting for more data. ? Jobs and inflation numbers next.

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1980-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged Accumulation summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

Vanguard U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

Bloomberg Commodity Index, XX:BCOM Advanced Chart - (Bloomberg Commodity Indices) XX:BCOM, Bloomberg Commodity Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

EDIT.. Are bonds saying that's as high as it goes ? 

Decent summary here.

 Bond market ‘somewhat chill’ about inflation effects, macro strategist says (yahoo.com)

FWXXN0tWAAEZBQ7 (900×556) (twimg.com)

Year end forecasts update.

FWk9bM1XwAEsfHJ (900×872) (twimg.com)

Earnings for full year 2022 not exactly cut but more of a trim.

 FWnNn0iX0AIG5Hh (900×652) (twimg.com)

Type_45

coastline said:

Blink and you miss it . Is that it or are they waiting for more data. ? Jobs and inflation numbers next.

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1980-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged Accumulation summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

Vanguard U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

Bloomberg Commodity Index, XX:BCOM Advanced Chart - (Bloomberg Commodity Indices) XX:BCOM, Bloomberg Commodity Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

What's happened?

masonic

Type_45 said:

Another OK Friday for the markets. Has the much-talked-about "Friday Phenomenon" ever actually been the case?

Just on the basis of random luck, you'd expect to see it about a third of the time. I'm only aware of one poster who believes it happens more often than that.

Type_45

My GJGB gold miner fund was green today.  I almost fell off my chair.

InvesterJones

quirkydeptless said:

My portfolio in 2022 be like ...

Congrats on your retirement anniversary

I've had my worst ever 6 months but was green today and can't complain given previous returns - valuations are getting a bit more sensible and it's been a good reminder to diversify. As far as my funds go the recommendation to go active over passive in a downturn was wide of the mark - passive equivalent funds fell less, and were cheaper to boot - so that was my main learning. Luckily not an expensive one as didn't have much proportion-wise in active. In a few years I'll probably kick myself for not doing what I recommend to friends and just sticking everything in a cheap global tracker. Oh well, TER is around 0.5% so could be worse.

Type_45

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

Swipe

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

Quick question, what will you do if you are wrong and the Fed suddenly pivots in September and the bottom is in?

k6chris

Type_45 said:

Wait till you see the next 6 months.

The S&P500, which is only one measure of the markets I know, closed at 3824, halfway through the year. 

1)  Do we think it will be higher or lower than 3824 on December 31st? 

2)  How low do we think it will go during that time?

My guess is a low of circa 3300 and closing the year higher than 4000.

RyanHello

Adjusting for inflation, The S&P is down over 25%, Nasdaq down 35% and Crypto down 65%...and we are only half way through 2022..

It's going to get much, much worse. I can see the S&P going to 3000-3200.