Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

MK62 said:

Type_45 said:

george4064 said:

GazzaBloom said:

I'm no visionary but am about 7% down year to date including contributions into 100% equities index funds. We hold 3 funds, one each for my pension, wife's pension and S&S ISA.

No fannying around or piddling about with asset allocation here, just rising above the noise and buying in monthly regardless.

The only thing I have done in significantly increase my salary sacrifice from March to buy more.

I'm down c. 19% on a performance basis, and including contributions I'm down c. 15%. Not a surprise at all with my Global All Equity IT/ETF portfolio, and with c. 30 years to when I need the funds I'm rather enjoying the downturn pick up cheaper units/shares.

Broadly, the market is down about 20%. So you're entirely in keeping with that.

It's no surprise, of course, that the frequenters of this board are the outliers who are beating those odds. It's absolutely expected.

Not really.......down in USD terms may not be same as down in GBP terms.

The MSCI AWCI TR is down about 18% in USD, but the same index in GBP is down about 10%.

Possibly.  But... 'decks chairs on the Titanic'.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

But again - gold has done well this year when shown standing next to those other funds.

Indeed, I don't regret adding it to my portfolio (using gold+cash as a bond proxy) for the first time last August. At some point I will want to return to a more traditional bond exposure. Trying to time that is going to be interesting. I don't want to miss the melt up!

As long as my crypto and gold miners play in the melt up I'll be happy!  

k6chris

We need a good capitulation day, across a broad range of stuff.  I wonder if today will be that day? 

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

But again - gold has done well this year when shown standing next to those other funds.

Indeed, I don't regret adding it to my portfolio (using gold+cash as a bond proxy) for the first time last August. At some point I will want to return to a more traditional bond exposure. Trying to time that is going to be interesting. I don't want to miss the melt up!

As long as my crypto and gold miners play in the melt up I'll be happy!  

Aren't they kind of opposed asset classes? Crypto acts as basically a tech growth gamble while gold miners are likely to do well when gold price is high - which traditionally happens when people aren't investing in tech growth.

Not to say they're not useful hedges against each other, but expecting them to generally move in the same direction is a bit odd.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

But again - gold has done well this year when shown standing next to those other funds.

Indeed, I don't regret adding it to my portfolio (using gold+cash as a bond proxy) for the first time last August. At some point I will want to return to a more traditional bond exposure. Trying to time that is going to be interesting. I don't want to miss the melt up!

As long as my crypto and gold miners play in the melt up I'll be happy!  

Aren't they kind of opposed asset classes? Crypto acts as basically a tech growth gamble while gold miners are likely to do well when gold price is high - which traditionally happens when people aren't investing in tech growth.

Not to say they're not useful hedges against each other, but expecting them to generally move in the same direction is a bit odd.

Trust me, they've been moving in exactly the same direction for months. 📉

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

But again - gold has done well this year when shown standing next to those other funds.

Indeed, I don't regret adding it to my portfolio (using gold+cash as a bond proxy) for the first time last August. At some point I will want to return to a more traditional bond exposure. Trying to time that is going to be interesting. I don't want to miss the melt up!

As long as my crypto and gold miners play in the melt up I'll be happy!  

Aren't they kind of opposed asset classes? Crypto acts as basically a tech growth gamble while gold miners are likely to do well when gold price is high - which traditionally happens when people aren't investing in tech growth.

Not to say they're not useful hedges against each other, but expecting them to generally move in the same direction is a bit odd.

Trust me, they've been moving in exactly the same direction for months. 📉

Forgive me if I don't trust you, given the accuracy of comments to date, so I just plotted the last year to check (I picked one crypto and one gold miner but the results don't change if you do another):

I can't see much correlation, though true that there's more in the last few months.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

But again - gold has done well this year when shown standing next to those other funds.

Indeed, I don't regret adding it to my portfolio (using gold+cash as a bond proxy) for the first time last August. At some point I will want to return to a more traditional bond exposure. Trying to time that is going to be interesting. I don't want to miss the melt up!

As long as my crypto and gold miners play in the melt up I'll be happy!  

Aren't they kind of opposed asset classes? Crypto acts as basically a tech growth gamble while gold miners are likely to do well when gold price is high - which traditionally happens when people aren't investing in tech growth.

Not to say they're not useful hedges against each other, but expecting them to generally move in the same direction is a bit odd.

Trust me, they've been moving in exactly the same direction for months. 📉

Forgive me if I don't trust you, given the accuracy of comments to date, so I just plotted the last year to check (I picked one crypto and one gold miner but the results don't change if you do another):

I can't see much correlation, though true that there's more in the last few months.

Since April, when I bought GJGB, it has lost ~1/3 of its value.  My crypto in that same time frame has more than halved.  Looks like correlation to me.  And GJGB has not correlated with gold in that time.  Quite the opposite.

GazzaBloom

k6chris said:

We need a good capitulation day, across a broad range of stuff.  I wonder if today will be that day? 

It's coming. Uniper down 14% today as it's supplies of gas from Gazprom dry up. It's going to get real sticky in Europe and UK this winter. The US has it's issues but I am of the opinion that they come our of any recession ahead of Europe.

European markets open to close as recession concerns persist (cnbc.com)

Type_45

Australian bank collapses with thousands of customers told to withdraw funds IMMEDIATELY before it closes all accounts on Tuesday 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10967735/Australian-bank-Volt-collapses-140-workers-losing-jobs.html

Zola.

Type_45 said:

Australian bank collapses with thousands of customers told to withdraw funds IMMEDIATELY before it closes all accounts on Tuesday 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10967735/Australian-bank-Volt-collapses-140-workers-losing-jobs.html

Shocking.