Octopus Tracker

FreeBear

Telegraph_Sam said: I don't think EDF have got the best of reputations going by past posts I have read.

Even if EDF were the only supplier available, I would have to think long and hard about using them....

They were the SoLR supplier when Toto the Clowns went bust, and EDF still haven't sorted out the final bill from those muppets. On that basis, I might be a little biased.

tghe-retford

BillyHorner said:

tghe-retford said:

While this may be a blip in terms of the weather, the price cap predictions suggest that this isn't a few days of high prices and then back below cap. It seems now that prices will remain at or above cap for a while. Time to jump ship. And sooner rather than later. Deals are already being pulled as the energy companies anticipate higher prices.

The price cap predictions give very little (if any) indication of future likely Tracker prices.

Firstly, for the April 2025 Price Cap, that is based on average wholesale prices between 16 November 2024 and 15 February 2025. As nearly 2/3rds of that period has already elapsed and (as we know) wholesale prices have been high during that time, then a rise in the price cap come April is pretty much locked in already. That doesn’t mean that wholesale prices (and therefore Tracker) can’t be lower going forward.

Secondly, the Price Cap calculation is based on the average of all wholesale prices during the calculation period. Tracker is based exclusively on the day ahead wholesale prices. Whilst there is a correlation between the two, the day ahead market is obviously more volatile, offering both very cheap and very expensive days.

The main determinant for the day ahead market appears to be how much (or how little) renewable energy can be generated on any specific day. I don’t think it’s possible to accurately predict that more more than a few days hence.

Finally, the Price Cap calculation only includes weekday prices and also excludes public holidays. As Tracker users will know, weekend and bank holidays are often amongst the cheapest days, due to lack of business demand, but those cheaper days are not counted when calculating the Price Cap.

We are in crystal ball gazing territory for the latter half of the year but since I wrote that post, we've had the news of a potential gas shortage despite National Gas assuring everyone that there is enough gas. Low and behold, wholesale gas prices which were falling over the last few days until this morning have now reversed and resumed its upward trend.

We know the prominent trend this year in Europe is that we're looking at a colder than average winter this year and there will be pressure on gas supplies. There will be milder periods (we're expecting one next week) but the mild winters of previous where the tracker prices were lower, all being equal, isn't being repeated this year.

You may have also seen that I wrote that I moved to a zero exit fee fixed deal. So if things do improve in time, I can switch penalty free. It's edging your bets on where things are going. I'm no Nostradamus, far from it, but I don't like what I am seeing as things stand and where I expect things to go. It's a shame I didn't get to the sub 6p per kWh gas prices that those who timed it right got but I can't see things going that way for the foreseeable.

tghe-retford

Telegraph_Sam said:

I don't think EDF have got the best of reputations going by past posts I have read. Alongside Brit Gas and the other biggies

Who does nowadays? I mean, the other alternative for electric was Tomato. And having seen what was posted yesterday and having experience of Toto, Neon Reef and Symbio, do you blame me?

BillyHorner

tghe-retford said:

BillyHorner said:

tghe-retford said:

While this may be a blip in terms of the weather, the price cap predictions suggest that this isn't a few days of high prices and then back below cap. It seems now that prices will remain at or above cap for a while. Time to jump ship. And sooner rather than later. Deals are already being pulled as the energy companies anticipate higher prices.

The price cap predictions give very little (if any) indication of future likely Tracker prices.

Firstly, for the April 2025 Price Cap, that is based on average wholesale prices between 16 November 2024 and 15 February 2025. As nearly 2/3rds of that period has already elapsed and (as we know) wholesale prices have been high during that time, then a rise in the price cap come April is pretty much locked in already. That doesn’t mean that wholesale prices (and therefore Tracker) can’t be lower going forward.

Secondly, the Price Cap calculation is based on the average of all wholesale prices during the calculation period. Tracker is based exclusively on the day ahead wholesale prices. Whilst there is a correlation between the two, the day ahead market is obviously more volatile, offering both very cheap and very expensive days.

The main determinant for the day ahead market appears to be how much (or how little) renewable energy can be generated on any specific day. I don’t think it’s possible to accurately predict that more more than a few days hence.

Finally, the Price Cap calculation only includes weekday prices and also excludes public holidays. As Tracker users will know, weekend and bank holidays are often amongst the cheapest days, due to lack of business demand, but those cheaper days are not counted when calculating the Price Cap.

We are in crystal ball gazing territory for the latter half of the year but since I wrote that post, we've had the news of a potential gas shortage despite National Gas assuring everyone that there is enough gas. Low and behold, wholesale gas prices which were falling over the last few days until this morning have now reversed and resumed its upward trend.

We know the prominent trend this year in Europe is that we're looking at a colder than average winter this year and there will be pressure on gas supplies. There will be milder periods (we're expecting one next week) but the mild winters of previous where the tracker prices were lower, all being equal, isn't being repeated this year.

You may have also seen that I wrote that I moved to a zero exit fee fixed deal. So if things do improve in time, I can switch penalty free. It's edging your bets on where things are going. I'm no Nostradamus, far from it, but I don't like what I am seeing as things stand and where I expect things to go. It's a shame I didn't get to the sub 6p per kWh gas prices that those who timed it right got but I can't see things going that way for the foreseeable.

I agree about the crystal ball gazing and, for clarity, I too have a zero exit fee fixed deal lined up for when my current Tracker period comes to an end mid-Feb. I was really just commenting on the fact that I'd be cautious about using price cap predictions as a proxy for likely future Tracker prices.

I'd agree that the market fundamentals are not in favour of a prolonged period of low wholesale prices any time soon. Taken together with the 'new' formula for Tracker, this makes it look like a less attractive proposition moving forward, but I will still keep a close eye on the day ahead markets and be happy to jump back on Tracker if things look like they are changing..

Griffindog

Telegraph_Sam said:

Is it true that you can only get your export credits from the co that supplies your electricity?  The arrangement I have splits generation and export. Not simple. Relic from the days of FIT

I moved my electricity usage to Octopus on a non-smart meter. My generation and deemed export was left with E-on next (non-smart generation meter). It was only when I switched to a smart meter that my actual export was available. My PV system is only 1.125kwh so never makes more than 6kwh on the best days, I don’t have a battery and probably use most of what I make so I didn’t see the point in switching the export. My FiT payments are at the highest rate as we had it installed a long time ago (60p approx per kWh) and that would be the same wherever, so I didn’t want to rock the boat by moving it, especially after hearing stories of Octopus having huge problems getting new accounts set up for solar. 

Maybe if you just have one combined meter then both import and generation might need to be with the same company.

Telegraph_Sam

This is getting into deep water and I am loathe to rock the boat (in case it sinks). There is a case for letting things be.

I was doing some research on fixed rate deals and it turned up that the Octopus 14 M scored in the top few for me

Telegraph_Sam

I have got another search engine "endorsement" for the Octopus 14 M fixed tariff - for electricity.  But doing a search for gas separately is far less clear cut. I'm guessing that one could exclude gas when switching from Tracker Dec 23 to the 14 M fixed [= having just electricity fixed for 14 M] , but is that correct? More to the point, have people in this thread come up with anything better than the default for gas?
I have a smart meter for electric alongside a manual meter for gas

FreeBear

Telegraph_Sam said:

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

I'm looking for a forum that focuses on general energy saving topics that would be "off topic" on the Tracker forum. If anyone knows this pls say. I'll most likely delete this post later to declutter things

The entire energy board?

You can even start your own thread if you want personalised advice and to audit your own energy use.

Thanks I have done this. And will delete this post as being off topic.

There is also the Home & DIY section...

Telegraph_Sam

I'm looking at the Octopus messages page on X-Twitter. Search as I may I can't see the "route" to composing and sending a message myself (as I have done many months ago). Is it staring me in the face?

Edit: I have found the "Post" button which seems to do the trick, but there must be a way of following any subsequent correspondence

Edit 2: It seems that there has been a change to Twitter-X and now you are limited to a much smaller text than before unless you upgrade to Premium

vic_sf49

Telegraph_Sam said:

I'm looking at the Octopus messages page on X-Twitter. Search as I may I can't see the "route" to composing and sending a message myself (as I have done many months ago). Is it staring me in the face?

Edit: I have found the "Post" button which seems to do the trick, but there must be a way of following any subsequent correspondence

Edit 2: It seems that there has been a change to Twitter-X and now you are limited to a much smaller text than before unless you upgrade to Premium

Teeny tiny envelope icon at the top...