Octopus Tracker

BillyHorner

tghe-retford said:

While this may be a blip in terms of the weather, the price cap predictions suggest that this isn't a few days of high prices and then back below cap. It seems now that prices will remain at or above cap for a while. Time to jump ship. And sooner rather than later. Deals are already being pulled as the energy companies anticipate higher prices.

The price cap predictions give very little (if any) indication of future likely Tracker prices.

Firstly, for the April 2025 Price Cap, that is based on average wholesale prices between 16 November 2024 and 15 February 2025. As nearly 2/3rds of that period has already elapsed and (as we know) wholesale prices have been high during that time, then a rise in the price cap come April is pretty much locked in already. That doesn’t mean that wholesale prices (and therefore Tracker) can’t be lower going forward.

Secondly, the Price Cap calculation is based on the average of all wholesale prices during the calculation period. Tracker is based exclusively on the day ahead wholesale prices. Whilst there is a correlation between the two, the day ahead market is obviously more volatile, offering both very cheap and very expensive days.

The main determinant for the day ahead market appears to be how much (or how little) renewable energy can be generated on any specific day. I don’t think it’s possible to accurately predict that more more than a few days hence.

Finally, the Price Cap calculation only includes weekday prices and also excludes public holidays. As Tracker users will know, weekend and bank holidays are often amongst the cheapest days, due to lack of business demand, but those cheaper days are not counted when calculating the Price Cap.

BootsMullery

Telegraph_Sam said:

So presumably the answer to my question is that Dec 2023 = 3rd April 10.am as far as the formula is concerned, notwithstanding a few odd balls that don't fit into the spec.

If I am reading you right, I don't think so. The formula I referred to was the 5th one on the list and the oldest one and is headed as. if you joined BEFORE 3 April 10 am. This must be the one applicable to December 2023.
The one above it in the list is for people who joined AFTER 3 April 10 am and is effective until 1st July 10:30 am

Chrysalis

Damn export is sold for a lot, I guess its resold at even higher prices then?

QrizB

Chrysalis said:

Damn export is sold for a lot, I guess its resold at even higher prices then?

The Outgoing Agile price is based on the 30-minute wholesale price. Here's the formula from the FAQ page:

Agile Export rate = M * APX + B + C

APX is the wholesale price.

And the table of M, B & C factors (it's not been updated since the Fixed price doubled to 15p).

So Outgoing Agile customers earn ~95% of the wholesale price.

Today's prices are unusually high:

tony863

tghe-retford said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

One could say that now is the worst possible time to switch since this "locks in" the price rise and excludes the consumer from any correction downwards later. Assuming that current price levels as they are won't become the new norm for the foreseeable future - correction - for the next 12 months.

All the indications suggest that the trend is upwards when it comes to wholesale prices for the foreseeable

I have switched to EDF's 12 month fixed offering without cashback. That way, I have no exit fees and should things turn out better, I can always bail without penalty. It did work out cheaper for me compared to what Octopus was offering with their fixed deal and it is also MSE's suggested cheapest fix as things stand.

Your post persuaded me to have a look and it's cheaper for me also:

Octopus 14m Fixed. 25.33p unit, with 48.79 SC

EDF Simply Fixed Direct 1Yr Jan26v8. 24.74p unit, with 43.97 SC

Both have no exit fees and EDF are more than half a pence cheaper per unit and around 5p cheaper per day SC.

I use about 70 units per day, so a 31 day monthly cost would be about

Oct - £15.12 SC + £54.96 units = £70.08
EDF - £13.63 + £53.68 units = £67.31

£2.77 difference per month, or around £33 per year. It's giving me something to think about. I don't know if I a switch is worth doing as the amount per year isn't massive, but better in my pocket than theirs? 

Telegraph_Sam

I don't think EDF have got the best of reputations going by past posts I have read. Alongside Brit Gas and the other biggies

Telegraph_Sam

BootsMullery said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

So presumably the answer to my question is that Dec 2023 = 3rd April 10.am as far as the formula is concerned, notwithstanding a few odd balls that don't fit into the spec.

If I am reading you right, I don't think so. The formula I referred to was the 5th one on the list and the oldest one and is headed as. if you joined BEFORE 3 April 10 am. This must be the one applicable to December 2023.
The one above it in the list is for people who joined AFTER 3 April 10 am and is effective until 1st July 10:30 am

I think I am agreeing with you. Dec 23 would seem to be the oldest one

tony863

Telegraph_Sam said:

I don't think EDF have got the best of reputations going by past posts I have read. Alongside Brit Gas and the other biggies

There are plenty of complaints about Octopus as well, but I agree the other companies have got much worse reps. 

Doc_N

Wasn’t it all so simple in the halcyon pre-privatisation days of gas and electricity boards? Higher prices with no competition (though I’m beginning to doubt that) but absolutely none of the time wasted now by customers chasing deals and companies moving customers around.

For what it’s worth I’ve gone for a 14 month Octopus fix starting at the end of March when my Tracker runs out. 23.66p and 54.85p per day at present (East Mids). Gas fixed with immediate effect a few days ago. I’ll sit out Tracker electric unless it gets too consistently scary, but at least the no-penalty fix is there on ice.

Telegraph_Sam

I'm looking for a forum that focuses on general energy saving topics that would be "off topic" on the Tracker forum. If anyone knows this pls say. I'll most likely delete this post later to declutter things