Octopus Tracker

t0rt0ise

mmmmikey said:

The Octopus Compare app will tell you with a high degree of accuracy what you would have paid for Agile and Tracker (new or old) over the last couple of months.

The last couple of months have seen very low prices by  the standards of the last couple of years. The differences in the formulae mean that the lower prices are, the more likely it is that Agile will beat Tracker.

So if you're using Octopus Compare what you're analysing is how the traiffs compare at a time that favours Agile. 

That's not to say that the comparison isn't useful or worthwhile. I'm just making the point that you need to think very carefully about what Octopus Compare is actually telling you. It is only telling you that at the very low price levels we've seen over the last few months you'd have been better or worse off. To quote a saying often used in the financial world "past perfromance is not a guarantee of future results". And to expand on that "past performance when things were looking particularly good is absolutely not a guarantee of future results".

To my way of thinking the big question here that isn't getting enough airtime in this thread is what will happen to prices going forward? If your assessment is that they will continue at their current low levels or fall then that would add weight to the argument for swapping to Agile, and vice versa.

Also, again IMHO of course, predicting energy prices beyond a few months has been something of a fools game in recent years (certainly to the level of accuracy where you can make an informed decision about a marginal difference between two tariffs). As well as the "normal" market fluctuations which the likes of Cornwall Insight do a pretty good job of predicting there are "known unknowns" to consider like the wars in Ukarine and the Middle East. And then of course there are the "unlnown unknowns", such as - err - ummm - well that's the point, we're living in an era where it's probably a good idea to start expecting the unexpected.

So, in summary, it's my view that this discussion is running ahead of itself somewhat. There is far too much uncertainty to draw any particular conclusion. So personally, I would forget the small differences in recent pricing and have a look at yourself in the mirror. If you see someone who understands the risks, comfortable those risks and has a strategy for dealing with them (like keeping an eye on things and swapping quickly without prevarication if things go awry) then Agile may well be a good option. But conversely, if you're agonising over whether to swap or not you're probably not confident in your assessment of the additional risks associated with Agile and/or it may not be in your nature to bail out quickly if the need arises (or you may bail out too quickly).

Remembering at all times that even on Tracker you're saving shiploads of cash vs. SVR at the moment, so it's certainly not a bad deal.

Trouble is you can't change back to Tracker within 9 months so it's not as simple as trying Agile and getting out if it proves more expensive that Tracker. And I do think that everyone is aware that things can change or be different through the seasons and that's exactly why we don't know what's best to do.

BellaBlondykeTheThird

t0rt0ise said:

mmmmikey said:

The Octopus Compare app will tell you with a high degree of accuracy what you would have paid for Agile and Tracker (new or old) over the last couple of months.

The last couple of months have seen very low prices by  the standards of the last couple of years. The differences in the formulae mean that the lower prices are, the more likely it is that Agile will beat Tracker.

So if you're using Octopus Compare what you're analysing is how the traiffs compare at a time that favours Agile. 

That's not to say that the comparison isn't useful or worthwhile. I'm just making the point that you need to think very carefully about what Octopus Compare is actually telling you. It is only telling you that at the very low price levels we've seen over the last few months you'd have been better or worse off. To quote a saying often used in the financial world "past perfromance is not a guarantee of future results". And to expand on that "past performance when things were looking particularly good is absolutely not a guarantee of future results".

To my way of thinking the big question here that isn't getting enough airtime in this thread is what will happen to prices going forward? If your assessment is that they will continue at their current low levels or fall then that would add weight to the argument for swapping to Agile, and vice versa.

Also, again IMHO of course, predicting energy prices beyond a few months has been something of a fools game in recent years (certainly to the level of accuracy where you can make an informed decision about a marginal difference between two tariffs). As well as the "normal" market fluctuations which the likes of Cornwall Insight do a pretty good job of predicting there are "known unknowns" to consider like the wars in Ukarine and the Middle East. And then of course there are the "unlnown unknowns", such as - err - ummm - well that's the point, we're living in an era where it's probably a good idea to start expecting the unexpected.

So, in summary, it's my view that this discussion is running ahead of itself somewhat. There is far too much uncertainty to draw any particular conclusion. So personally, I would forget the small differences in recent pricing and have a look at yourself in the mirror. If you see someone who understands the risks, comfortable those risks and has a strategy for dealing with them (like keeping an eye on things and swapping quickly without prevarication if things go awry) then Agile may well be a good option. But conversely, if you're agonising over whether to swap or not you're probably not confident in your assessment of the additional risks associated with Agile and/or it may not be in your nature to bail out quickly if the need arises (or you may bail out too quickly).

Remembering at all times that even on Tracker you're saving shiploads of cash vs. SVR at the moment, so it's certainly not a bad deal.

Trouble is you can't change back to Tracker within 9 months so it's not as simple as trying Agile and getting out if it proves more expensive that Tracker. And I do think that everyone is aware that things can change or be different through the seasons and that's exactly why we don't know what's best to do.

No guarantees but my answer with that is if you don't ask you don't get with Octopus. 

It is a renewal so technically if you asked to go onto another product from the 15th they may waive the 9 months and just apply the 30day smart tariff move rule (hint.....they have done this for a few customers that I know of from other socials)

mmmmikey

BellaBlondykeTheThird said:

Two things, definitely cheaper to make your own ice even factoring in a brolita type filter cost as well (sad I know)

As we get close to the 15th Feb and then once people have compared for a few weeks I suspect the tracker v agile debate will hot up.

We have already done our deal with Octopus and from the 15th will be on the Agile tariff.

Hi - did you consider Flux as an alternative to Agile or Tracker? Asking because you've made reference elsewhere to having a bettery system, and Flux would give you a much better export rate at peak times. If you did compare, what swung you towards Agile? 

Same question for any "winter only" Trackerites - will you be swapping to Agile or Flux this summer and if so why?

Thanks, Mike

masonic

northernstar007 said:

a little bit off topic but still with electric
i'm topping my icecube box up in the freezer, soon as i fill the tray up with water stick it in the freezer the motor kicks in, now im doing this a fair bit as i love ice with my drinks, but will it be cheaper buying a bag icecubes for £1.20 or keep making my own with the motor kicking in all the time 

You can figure this out for yourself using the thermophysical properties of water. First you need to cool it from room temperature to 0 °C, then freeze it. The specific heat capacity of water is 4.2 kJ/kg/K (1.17 Wh/kg/K) and the latent heat of fusion is 334 kJ/kg (92.8 Wh/kg). So for a 1.8 kg bag of ice cubes @ £1.20, you are saving, say, cooling by 20 °C (=20 K) @ 42 Wh and freezing @ 167 Wh, so a total of about 209 Wh or 0.2 kWh. The breakeven unit rate would be about £6 per kWh, the cost of making your own at a rate of 20p/kWh is only 4p. Obviously I haven't accounted for the inefficiencies of your ice box, but it would have to be pretty rubbish to make shop-bought ice even close to economical.

masonic

BellaBlondykeTheThird said:

As we get close to the 15th Feb and then once people have compared for a few weeks I suspect the tracker v agile debate will hot up.

Here's my YTD:

Not much in it. Over the whole period Agile was 9% more expensive than Tracker Dec22 would have been. From past experience, if I worked hard at load-shifting, I could achieve parity, but I'd be unlikely to better that. The older formula saved me about 19% vs Agile over this period.

jcb208

My gas meter refuses to send Octopus readings so I send them manually ,I asked them to replace it but nothing has happened. I notice on my bill for February they have charged the full month for gas at 4.01p per KWH which looks the cheapest it was that month. I am on tracker  December 23 v1.So if I'm correct every month my gas will be charged  at the cheapest day

QrizB

jcb208 said:

My gas meter refuses to send Octopus readings ,I asked them to replace it but nothing has happened. I notice on my bill for February they have charged the full month for gas at 4.01p per KWH which looks the cheapest it was that month. I am on tracker  December 23 v1.So if I'm correct every month my gas will be charged  at the cheapest day

That's not their usual approach. Usually they assign a default profile to your use for the month then price each day against that profile.

What does it say on the last page of your bill where they give you the daily breakdown?

jcb208

QrizB said:

jcb208 said:

My gas meter refuses to send Octopus readings ,I asked them to replace it but nothing has happened. I notice on my bill for February they have charged the full month for gas at 4.01p per KWH which looks the cheapest it was that month. I am on tracker  December 23 v1.So if I'm correct every month my gas will be charged  at the cheapest day

That's not their usual approach. Usually they assign a default profile to your use for the month then price each day against that profile.

What does it say on the last page of your bill where they give you the daily breakdown?

Sorry never looked that far, it is split in to days but the rates charged seem on the low side for dec23 tariff, one day a charge of  3.86p kwh applied.

double_dutchy

3.86 sounds believable. I'm on the old (Nov 2022) tariff and I had as low as 3.68 in the last month. The change at Dec 2023 is relatively small for gas compared to electric so certainly looks valid.

What region are you in?

bristolleedsfan

jcb208 said:

QrizB said:

jcb208 said:

My gas meter refuses to send Octopus readings ,I asked them to replace it but nothing has happened. I notice on my bill for February they have charged the full month for gas at 4.01p per KWH which looks the cheapest it was that month. I am on tracker  December 23 v1.So if I'm correct every month my gas will be charged  at the cheapest day

That's not their usual approach. Usually they assign a default profile to your use for the month then price each day against that profile.

What does it say on the last page of your bill where they give you the daily breakdown?

Sorry never looked that far, it is split in to days but the rates charged seem on the low side for dec23 tariff, one day a charge of  3.86p kwh applied.

Bear in mind rates you have mentioned are + VAT