Octopus Tracker

Spoonie_Turtle

mmmmikey said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

And these data will be taken account of by the sources that do the prediction number crunching referred to in your previous post?

Presumably yes, but I'm not sure if this has got to the stage yet where predictions have gone beyond "educated guesses". I'm not aware of any online prediction for Tracker prices and as far as I know what's happening in this thread is that folks are looking at the emoncs data and historic prices to guesstimate future pricing over the next few days - hence @MultiFuelBurner post earlier this afternoon inviting comment on this.

The most account I take of 'historic prices' even looking at the demand/supply chart is kind of … the price today and just recently.  Because the other factors affecting price are active now, so historic pricing further back doesn't help me in any meaningful way.

I don't actually really try to guess the prices though, to be fair, I just go by cheaper/more expensive to inform things like when's likely to be good to put the washing machine (and lately, tumble dryer) on, whether to shower before or after midnight, etc.

masonic

I don't think anyone can meaningfully predict prices - I certainly can't. You can easily determine the price for the next day by applying the formula for your region found at https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/ to the N2EX Day Ahead auction posted at 10 am here: https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/GB/Auction-prices/UK/Daily/?dd=GB&view=table (in GBP). That auction, as the name suggests, is based on the bidding of market participants, so complex geopolitical issues weigh in to the results, and can dominate other factors, as they did last winter. You can reasonably guess that if supply/demand looks worse or better later in the week, prices will be higher or lower respectively, all other things being equal, but that's about it.

Telegraph_Sam

I am trying to evaluate gastracker alongside the other sources. I think their comparison between the average daily Tracker price(s) over say 3 or more months against the SVT is more meaningful than the daily spot comparisons (for many of us). Predictions come with a govt health warning but a limited indication could be read into the historical data as long as the markets are reasonably static.  Anyone disagree? please say.

fuelcrusher

QrizB said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.
Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

Looks like tomorrow could be the most expensive day of the week? And a likely candidate for a DFS event?

I would doubt we'll see one today (Mon). Our unit (>1GW) did not clear the auction after I thought we probably would so there's plenty of supply available. I'm often wrong with our running predictions though lol.

MultiFuelBurner

QrizB said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.
Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

Looks like tomorrow could be the most expensive day of the week? And a likely candidate for a DFS event?

Might be Wednesday if it's not today as you said.

MultiFuelBurner

fuelcrusher said:

QrizB said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.
Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

Looks like tomorrow could be the most expensive day of the week? And a likely candidate for a DFS event?

I would doubt we'll see one today (Mon). Our unit (>1GW) did not clear the auction after I thought we probably would so there's plenty of supply available. I'm often wrong with our running predictions though lol.

Tracker price predictions are always fun lol

I did think maybe it takes some time to power down the coal plants when they ramped up late November into the start of December but perhaps someone more knowledgeable than me.will confirm once lit they stay out til the end of winter?

Slinky

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.

Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

What is Wind Embedded? (Sounds painful!)

MultiFuelBurner

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.

Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

What is Wind Embedded? (Sounds painful!)

Trapped wind but we don't want to ease that lol it keeps the prices down

mmmmikey

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.

Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

What is Wind Embedded? (Sounds painful!)

I can confirm it is painful :-)

In this context, I believe it is wind energy that is used directly by whoever is generating it rather than fed into the grid. This could be shown as reducing demand but for whatever reason it is shown the way it is instead. Happy to be corrected by anyone if I've got this wrong?

The_Green_Hornet

mmmmikey said:

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

And on that note, here's the guess the price of tracker this week.

Also, if there were to be a DFS event what day would it be?

What is Wind Embedded? (Sounds painful!)

I can confirm it is painful :-)

In this context, I believe it is wind energy that is used directly by whoever is generating it rather than fed into the grid. This could be shown as reducing demand but for whatever reason it is shown the way it is instead. Happy to be corrected by anyone if I've got this wrong?

What is embedded generation? | ESO (nationalgrideso.com)