Octopus Tracker

tghe-retford

[Deleted User] said:

la531983 said:

Chrysalis said:

I checked my tracker today and its still circa 10p unit lower than SVR as well as cheaper SC, so all good as far as I am concerned, it will fluctuate up and down, we not going to never get upward movements.

The moment the wind stops and people putting their heating on, increasing demand, and it's going to flirt dangerously with the cap imo. 

Gas price shooting straight up from the off this morning again on the markets. 

Who knows, but this seems like a very real risk to me. 

I wouldn't profess to be an expert but it seems to me that an unseasonably warm (at times hot!) start to autumn must have a downward effect on prices and that has coincided with strong winds, which also tend to send prices down. On the flip side, gas prices are going up as a result of tensions in the Middle East. And who knows what's coming next - the world is an unstable place at the moment. 

The big risk that I would be concerned about is the effect of upward price trends on the availability of fixes. Anyone waiting for Tracker prices to catch up with SVR before switching away may be in for a nasty surprise. If Tracker prices go up in reaction to market prices then it's quite possible the SVR will too - albeit in 3 monthly hikes. And if that happens then it's likely that fixes will only be available at less attractive prices.

SVR prices may effectively be a cap on Tracker prices (on the basis that you can easily switch) but that cap may rise if Tracker prices do. If you want price security at today's rates then fixing is the way to go and I'm very much of the opinion that would be a good option for many people. It's no good waiting for prices to rise first - it will be too late.

Things have changed since lockdown. The days of companies competing with one another on price are over. What you pay is determined by a balance of risk and certainty. If you want certainty, you will pay more in the same way people pay for convenience. Those on a fixed tariff will pay a premium compared to those on the SVR. And those on the SVR will pay a premium compared to those who are on Tracker or Agile. If you want cheaper prices, you'll have to gamble. The cheaper you can get, the bigger the gamble, the bigger rewards if you get it right but also the bigger losses if you get it wrong.

The real test will be next Monday. This weekend the gas price will be near parity with the SVR price. It will be a calm day but still cold, it is likely events will have escalated in the Gaza Bank and other events are unlikely to be resolved. What Tracker customers pay on Monday will find its way with a nice mark-up to everyone on the SVR down the line. I'm sure Cornwall Insight are frantically recalculating future energy price caps as we speak.

QrizB

tghe-retford said:

I'm sure Cornwall Insight are frantically recalculating future energy price caps as we speak.

I've always imagined it's an intern with an Excel spreadsheet, who gets 30 minutes notice of her boss having to publish a press release!

Spoonie_Turtle

Does anyone have that website handy that forecasts demand and likely wind+solar supply?  The demand is a red line, wind is green (with a light and dark green, one for 'baked in' wind) and solar is yellow, all in a graph on a black background. 

I foolishly didn't bookmark it, can't find it in my history or a Google search, and I don't even remember if it was on this thread or the Agile one to go trawling through possibly tens of pages to find it.

Spies

This one? https://emoncms.org/ukgrid

Monday and Tuesday are likely to be horribly expensive 

Spoonie_Turtle

Spies said:

This one? https://emoncms.org/ukgrid

Monday and Tuesday are likely to be horribly expensive 

That's exactly it, thank you so much

sevenhills

MultiFuelBurner said:

This is key information that needs caveating against all the excited fear mongering excitement when the prices rise a bit. I suspect a lot of it comes from people not on tracker wanting the prices to rise.

If inflation is 6%, that means that its worth while to fix for 12 months? In 6 months tome energy prices will be 3% higher. So if the tracker matches energy prices in 6 months it will be 3% higher.

Telegraph_Sam

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Spies said:

This one? https://emoncms.org/ukgrid

Monday and Tuesday are likely to be horribly expensive 

That's exactly it, thank you so much

The graphics are indeed very impressive. But I was trying to figure out just what practical "use" us consumers can extract from them. Other than a 1 week global demand forecast which then has to be translated into prices for gas and elec respectively. As a means perhaps of varying one's consumption but not choice of tariff.
I would suggest that monitoring short term  fluctuating Tracker prices only makes sense if combined with the medium and possibly longer term data. All the more so with Agile.

Spies

At least on agile it gives you a good idea if its worth deferring charging the car/doing the washing when looking at emoncms

Telegraph_Sam

That was my deduction also. What would be useful would be the equivalent but on a medium / longer term statistical basis that  one could include as a mental input  for deciding on the risk / reward ratio of staying on or deserting Tracker. 
Stranded EV's in the office car park are obviously driven (when charged) by Agile consumers.

Spoonie_Turtle

Telegraph_Sam said:

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Spies said:

This one? https://emoncms.org/ukgrid

Monday and Tuesday are likely to be horribly expensive 

That's exactly it, thank you so much

The graphics are indeed very impressive. But I was trying to figure out just what practical "use" us consumers can extract from them. Other than a 1 week global demand forecast which then has to be translated into prices for gas and elec respectively. As a means perhaps of varying one's consumption but not choice of tariff.
I would suggest that monitoring short term  fluctuating Tracker prices only makes sense if combined with the medium and possibly longer term data. All the more so with Agile.

Literally just looking at the week or so ahead for some kind of indication of which days will probably be cheaper - we're all-electric so while the price of gas does influence the price we pay, at the moment the weather and renewable energy available seem to be a bigger influence on cost.

I have zero plans to jump ship, and unless it looks like we're actually in real danger of wiping out the year's savings, really don't intend to even consider leaving Tracker.