Stamp Duty Ending

Mickey666

Crashy_Time said:

Mickey666 said:

mrlegend123 said:

Bonniepurple said:

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

I feel sorry for the younger generation and hope they don't extend stamp duty. Property tax is the way to go to make it fair with additional BTL tax on landlords. 

Only thing is, Stamp Duty is only payable when you buy a property.  How many elderly people are still in family homes because by the time they’ve paid for solicitors, movers, stamp duty, estate agents and a new property there’s not enough left to make it a viable option?  Perhaps building fewer townhouses (therefore lots of stairs) and more bungalows or even just more versatile accommodation (bedroom/study with en-suite downstairs, more bedrooms and bathrooms upstairs)?

I agree with you regarding different types of property being required. However, older generation are asset rich cash poor/good which is more than the young generation majority being asset poor cash poor. It is time for the older generation to pay their taxes as they have benefited the most from Gov/CB policies over the years (yes, I know they didn't have a say). Stamp duty is bad, but a property tax at 0.4% a year of the property value is fair. You can't have houses earning more a year than your average then moan you can't afford the property tax! 

If the old are asset rich and cash poor then how can they actually pay an asset tax?   
It would presumably have to be some sort of deferred payment (unless you're going to turf them out of their homes, all bought with taxed money I might add) for their estate to pay on death when the house can be sold . . . . which funnily enough is exactly the system we've already got, only we call it inheritance tax

They pay stamp duty when they sell, more council tax on second property, more council tax on empty property  more tax on rent received etc. etc. The easiest way for the young to tax the boomers is to make low offers for their properties.

Great idea.  And while you're organising that, how about getting everyone to make low offers to car dealers so we can get the prices of cars down as well. 

SpiderLegs

Mickey666 said:

But how would the aspiring FTBs be affected by such changes?  Well, you'd think a 50% drop in house prices would obviously make things easier for them, which is fine by me, except that anyone in negative equity is unlikely to accept a low offer for their home so they will simply choose not to move - or more likely not be able to move.   For anyone without a mortgage and looking to move, it's not the absolute house prices that matter, only the relative differences.  So, if my house is suddenly worth 50% and the house I want to move to is worth 50% less then the drop in my house value is effectively meaningless - which is why I don't really care what my house is worth.

I wouldn’t have thought a sudden, significant drop in house prices would be especially beneficial for our aspiring younger generation of prospective FTBers.
The associated economic downturn would mean lot of them would become unemployed and a lot of them would find it even harder to get a mortgage.

The view that 1% increase in IR = 20% off house prices, well if that’s true then that’s just a reason why IRs will not be increasing. It would be better for the HPCers if a 1% increase caused around a 2-3% decrease, (which it probably would), then IR rises are back as an option. Unfortunately it seems a lot of them are under the delusion that house prices are disconnected from the rest of the economy and unrelated to social and demographic changes that have been going on for decades.

AnotherJoe

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

can you personally stop replying to my posts as you are mixing things up and it's annoying. I referenced the BOE report then I mentioned mortgage rates and lastly transactions are down

This is a public forum where anyone can reply and people will reply when you keep making false and misleading statements.

"transactions are down" Well no, actually transactions are up (significantly) compared to 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 and from 2014 onwards transactions have remained roughly stable at around 100,000 every single month.

mrlegend123 said:

I referenced the BOE report

Just to be clear, that was the report that concluded "it does not suggest that house prices are likely to move lower" and yet you keep referencing it as you hope to "watch the housing market collapse"?

It's more than a little strange that you are doing the exact same thing as Crashy does when he links to articles that actually contradict his arguments...

My thoughts also

Mickey666

SpiderLegs said:

Mickey666 said:

But how would the aspiring FTBs be affected by such changes?  Well, you'd think a 50% drop in house prices would obviously make things easier for them, which is fine by me, except that anyone in negative equity is unlikely to accept a low offer for their home so they will simply choose not to move - or more likely not be able to move.   For anyone without a mortgage and looking to move, it's not the absolute house prices that matter, only the relative differences.  So, if my house is suddenly worth 50% and the house I want to move to is worth 50% less then the drop in my house value is effectively meaningless - which is why I don't really care what my house is worth.

I wouldn’t have thought a sudden, significant drop in house prices would be especially beneficial for our aspiring younger generation of prospective FTBers.
The associated economic downturn would mean lot of them would become unemployed and a lot of them would find it even harder to get a mortgage.

The view that 1% increase in IR = 20% off house prices, well if that’s true then that’s just a reason why IRs will not be increasing. It would be better for the HPCers if a 1% increase caused around a 2-3% decrease, (which it probably would), then IR rises are back as an option. Unfortunately it seems a lot of them are under the delusion that house prices are disconnected from the rest of the economy and unrelated to social and demographic changes that have been going on for decades.

I agree.  My post was really an 'even if . . . " extreme example.
In practice I think you're absolutely right and a dramatic upheaval in the economic system is very unlikely to benefit anyone.  
Revolutionary instability never seems to work out well.

Angela_D_3

Unemployment amongst graduates and the 16-24 unskilled is disproportionately high at the moment.  A HPC might help transfer housing from the dead to younger 25-45 age group potentially.... or it might create a new wave of accidentally landlords amongst boomers with nothimg else to do with their time who dont want to give their inheritance away funnily enough.  

MobileSaver

Angela_D_3 said:

A HPC might help transfer housing from the dead to younger 25-45 age group potentially

As Crashy keeps reminding everyone, transactions dropped by 50% the last time there was a HPC and over a decade on transactions are still not back to their pre-HPC levels; any suggestion a HPC would somehow benefit the younger generation seems wildly optimistic to me!

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

The easiest way for the young to tax the boomers is to make low offers for their properties.

Can you remind everyone how that "easiest way" has worked out for you over the last fifteen or so years?

Obviously you are worried about the next fifteen?

Crashy_Time

SpiderLegs said:

Crashy_Time said:

SpiderLegs said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

You said it was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

Was it a 1% increase in mortgage interest rates, the end of FOM or the end of a Stamp Duty holiday?

If none of those then what is the relevance to this thread? (Other than deflecting from the fact that every single one of your reasons for why there will be a house price crash has been shown to be somewhat flawed.)

Tbh I’m not really sure why crashy keeps pushing this stat for. It doesn’t really seem to be relevant to anything.

transactions are low, house prices go up.
transactions were high, house prices went up.

Not quite, transactions were high, house prices were lower and interest rates higher.
Now transactions have fallen 50%, interest rates have been cut to near zero and prices are much higher!
Any move up in interest rates and either transactions or prices have to go lower.

Hi crashy.
can you give me sone context to your claim that transactions have fallen by 50%

It was Mobile Saver`s claim.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

The easiest way for the young to tax the boomers is to make low offers for their properties.

Can you remind everyone how that "easiest way" has worked out for you over the last fifteen or so years?

Obviously you are worried about the next fifteen?

Why would I be worried about the next fifteen and what is there to be worried about anyway?

Crashy_Time said:

SpiderLegs said:

Crashy_Time said:

Now transactions have fallen 50%,

can you give me some context to your claim that transactions have fallen by 50%

It was Mobile Saver`s claim.

No it wasn't. I stated that transactions fell by 50% but that was over a decade ago. You claimed transactions now were still at 50% which is obviously not true.

SpiderLegs

Crashy_Time said:

SpiderLegs said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

You said it was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

Was it a 1% increase in mortgage interest rates, the end of FOM or the end of a Stamp Duty holiday?

If none of those then what is the relevance to this thread? (Other than deflecting from the fact that every single one of your reasons for why there will be a house price crash has been shown to be somewhat flawed.)

Tbh I’m not really sure why crashy keeps pushing this stat for. It doesn’t really seem to be relevant to anything.

transactions are low, house prices go up.
transactions were high, house prices went up.

Not quite, transactions were high, house prices were lower and interest rates higher.
Now transactions have fallen 50%, interest rates have been cut to near zero and prices are much higher!
Any move up in interest rates and either transactions or prices have to go lower.

Hi crashy,

Just to let you know, it was your specific claim above that I want you to quantify,  not what anyone else may or may not posted.