Stamp Duty Ending

Mickey666

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.
In fact, bring on the crash, let house values collapse and then there'll be no point in the property tax you seem so keen on.  I'll still have my home AND will save tax - seems like a win-win to me 
Be careful what you wish for

Mickey666

mrlegend123 said:

Bonniepurple said:

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

I feel sorry for the younger generation and hope they don't extend stamp duty. Property tax is the way to go to make it fair with additional BTL tax on landlords. 

Only thing is, Stamp Duty is only payable when you buy a property.  How many elderly people are still in family homes because by the time they’ve paid for solicitors, movers, stamp duty, estate agents and a new property there’s not enough left to make it a viable option?  Perhaps building fewer townhouses (therefore lots of stairs) and more bungalows or even just more versatile accommodation (bedroom/study with en-suite downstairs, more bedrooms and bathrooms upstairs)?

I agree with you regarding different types of property being required. However, older generation are asset rich cash poor/good which is more than the young generation majority being asset poor cash poor. It is time for the older generation to pay their taxes as they have benefited the most from Gov/CB policies over the years (yes, I know they didn't have a say). Stamp duty is bad, but a property tax at 0.4% a year of the property value is fair. You can't have houses earning more a year than your average then moan you can't afford the property tax! 

If the old are asset rich and cash poor then how can they actually pay an asset tax?   
It would presumably have to be some sort of deferred payment (unless you're going to turf them out of their homes, all bought with taxed money I might add) for their estate to pay on death when the house can be sold . . . . which funnily enough is exactly the system we've already got, only we call it inheritance tax

mrlegend123

Mickey666 said:

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.
In fact, bring on the crash, let house values collapse and then there'll be no point in the property tax you seem so keen on.  I'll still have my home AND will save tax - seems like a win-win to me 
Be careful what you wish for

I've retired from this thread. I am not wasting my time debating with clueless baby boomers who brought their houses long time ago and think we are still living pre GFC....... it is different times now. Since GFC, CBs been buying risky mortgage backed bonds at a alarming rate and mortgage rates neve been so low (bank rate plus risk premium). risk premium has increased due to virus. many props in the 'free' market. 

Baby boomers policies is to screw over the younger generation(s). I hope the Gov do bring in property tax or wealth tax. If not, most baby boomers will be dead in the next 20 years so increasing the inheritance tax  would be good idea to bring down national debt. The baby boomers have not brought anything to the table like the generations before so the least they can do is to pay for the national debt after they die (excluding stamp duty). 

MobileSaver

mrlegend123 said:

The baby boomers have not brought anything to the table like the generations before

Apart from little things like creating the Internet you mean? Oh and inventing Smartphones? So apart from creating awesome stuff used by practically every person on the entire planet what have the Baby Boomers ever done for us?

Bonniepurple

There’s only 2 things certain in life - death and taxes.  No matter what it is called, there are several taxes associated with property (Stamp Duty, Council Tax, Inheritance Tax etc) and I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that, if one is removed, it will be replaced by a different tax - possibly not on housing, but perhaps on something which impacts more people per year.

Let’s face it, governments of any colour need the money!

Crashy_Time

SpiderLegs said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

You said it was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

Was it a 1% increase in mortgage interest rates, the end of FOM or the end of a Stamp Duty holiday?

If none of those then what is the relevance to this thread? (Other than deflecting from the fact that every single one of your reasons for why there will be a house price crash has been shown to be somewhat flawed.)

Tbh I’m not really sure why crashy keeps pushing this stat for. It doesn’t really seem to be relevant to anything.

transactions are low, house prices go up.
transactions were high, house prices went up.

Not quite, transactions were high, house prices were lower and interest rates higher.
Now transactions have fallen 50%, interest rates have been cut to near zero and prices are much higher!
Any move up in interest rates and either transactions or prices have to go lower.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates ... I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense

Ironically it is you that does not understand despite claiming you did; real interest rates and mortgage interest rates are two different things and yet you keep conflating the two.

mrlegend123 said:

Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  The housing market post GFC is not the same

The only thing you have got right is that the housing market post GFC is not the same!

As a direct consequence of the GFC the vast majority of borrowers will easily be able to afford it because affordability tests introduced since 2014 mean that lenders assess affordability at 3% above the Standard Variable Rate! So every single mortgage approved in the last six years already assumes that interest rates might increase by 3%, 4% or even 5% (because affordability is based on SVR+3% and not the discounted-fixed-rate.)

For example, anyone applying today for a HSBC two year fixed at 1.54% (when HSBC's SVR is 3.54%) will have to pass an affordability test confirming they can afford the payments if interest rates rise to SVR+3% = 6.54%. In other words even if interest rates increased by 5%, practically every borrower will be able to afford it...

How many could afford the Stamp Duty though, or a new boiler? If interest rates increased by 5% there would be soup kitchens on the streets, that is how badly in debt many people are, you don`t believe that people only borrow on their mortgage nowadays do you?

Mickey666

mrlegend123 said:

Mickey666 said:

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.
In fact, bring on the crash, let house values collapse and then there'll be no point in the property tax you seem so keen on.  I'll still have my home AND will save tax - seems like a win-win to me 
Be careful what you wish for

I've retired from this thread. I am not wasting my time debating with clueless baby boomers who brought their houses long time ago and think we are still living pre GFC....... it is different times now. Since GFC, CBs been buying risky mortgage backed bonds at a alarming rate and mortgage rates neve been so low (bank rate plus risk premium). risk premium has increased due to virus. many props in the 'free' market. 

Baby boomers policies is to screw over the younger generation(s). I hope the Gov do bring in property tax or wealth tax. If not, most baby boomers will be dead in the next 20 years so increasing the inheritance tax  would be good idea to bring down national debt. The baby boomers have not brought anything to the table like the generations before so the least they can do is to pay for the national debt after they die (excluding stamp duty). 

Now you really are being silly so it's probably best that you're retiring from this thread.

Baby boomers don't have any such policy, they are just like every other generation before them in dealing with the world as they've found it and tried to make the best of it.  Future generations will do the same - well, unless they just waste their time whinging about how tough life is for them.

As for not bringing anything to the table, well there's not enough space to even start to scratch the surface of that ridiculous assertion.  For a start, as MobileSaver has pointed out, we've gifted you the means to communicate your strange ideas (yes GIFTED, TB-L made no money from arguably the greatest invention of mankind), and the list of other things is a very long one indeed.  Here's a bit of background reading for you: http://blogs.reuters.com/small-business/2010/12/30/baby-boomer-inventions-that-changed-the-world/

Not to mention inventing the space age, putting a man on the moon and putting an end to a century of world wars and building the global organisations and alliances that make global war pretty much unthinkable nowadays, giving you the chance to live in a period of hitherto unparalleled peacetime and not having to worry about being conscripted to fight for your country as the generations before baby boomers had to.

Yes, the world has changed, just as it always has done - so grow up and deal with it.
I really dislike the term 'snowflake' but when the cap fits . . . 

jimbog

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term 

mrlegend123 said:

I think we will see inflation at 2-3% in the future 2022-23 but interest rates will not be jacked up. 

So, a bit of a moot point really

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

I`m taking your first point as saying that the end of FOM doesn`t really matter much? It will be interesting to see how that prediction plays out,

I know it's not what you want to hear but the end of FOM is not the be all and end all and certainly isn't the death knell for HPI. There may be a one-off drop as the ramifications of Brexit kick in but that doesn't change the long-term trends of more births, less deaths, more non-EU immigration and more single households.

Crashy_Time said:

very small changes to affordability can affect transactions when a bubble is at full stretch, when people can barely scrape together the money to participate any more

One of your fundamental problems is that you blindly treat false suppositions as fact in a bid to justify your point of view. There is no evidence that we are in a "bubble at full stretch" and indeed it is practically impossible to know whether anything was in a bubble until after the bubble has burst. Somehow though HPCers convince themselves that they know better than everyone else even when years of failed predictions prove the contrary.

If you can`t acknowledge the extent of CB intervention to keep the debt bubble afloat there isn`t really much point in having this discussion?