Stamp Duty Ending

BikingBud

MobileSaver said:

BikingBud said:

Mickey666 said:

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.

Be careful using terms like majority as they are often quite misleading. The split is roughly into thirds, 1/3 own (mortgage free), slightly less think they own but in fact they are paying a hp agreement and the other slightly more than a third do not own.

I don't know where you got your figures from but they are very wrong!

A third of all homes are bought for cash so are mortgage free from day one. However every day that goes by another mortgage (that may have been taken out say 18 years ago) is paid off in full and so also now becomes mortgage free. The cumulative effect of this is that something like 60% of all homes are mortgage free.

I really don't know what you meant by "slightly more than a third do not own"; if you are referring to interest-only mortgages then that only accounts for about 5% of UK homeowners.

Having said all that, although I could be wrong, I think Mickey666 meant that the majority of homeowners don't care what their house is worth not that the majority are mortgage free... (notwithstanding that both statements would be correct anyway.)

Of course they are wrong as they don't fit the picture the many are trying to paint!

Here's where I went changesinhousingtenureovertime where do you get your assertions from?
I'm not about homeowners I'm about housing, the stat that was quoted "like the majority of UK homeowners" actually means nothing. There could be 2 or 6 or 200 or 4 million UK homeowners but without considering the whole range of housing solutions it doesn't matter what percentage of "UK Homeowners" you use as you discount statically significant data.  The stat I've used from the ONS looks across all housing as homeowning is but one solution for providing housing. So from the ONS survey roughly a third own their home, if they paid cash from day one whoopie doo great for them but I do not believe that to be the case ever. For people over 65 this increase to 74%, this is entirely logical as people have paid off the mortgages and are now sat in assets that they feel owe them a pension to sustain their future. What they are worth is entirely a different question. 

The flip side is that for the age range 16-64 whilst the own outright has gone up from 14>17% (~25% increase) those owning with a mortgage has dropped from 56% to 40% (~29% decrease), it's logical thereof to asses that the 74% figure above will also fall, people won't magically be able to buy unless something significant changes and if they can they might be tied to mortgages that are a millstone for 35-40 years, they are becoming more common just to buy into the scheme and there will be little scope left for betterment and moving into larger houses as circumstances change. Houses will sell due to the 3 Ds and it is not as simple as one house passing onto one child, therefore house sales will need to occur.  If the cash is not there to sustain the high asking prices see affordability stats: then something has to give.

Also bear in mind that these homeowners are likely mortgage free as they benefited from sale of the century type deals on RTB schemes but you can only sell the family silver once. 

Edit- And I think your thought about the meaning of @Mickey666 post is the tell, too many people don't care. I suppose the difficult thing is when the baby boomers have taken the profits and pulled the drawbridge, those left behind have very few options:
"But for any given age, people are far more likely to be renting privately today than 10 or 20 years ago. Almost a third (28%) of people aged 35 to 44 years rented from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 (9%) in 1997 (currently aged 55 to 64 years)" - So a 300% increase in private renting and it's only going to get worse

MobileSaver

BikingBud said:

MobileSaver said:

BikingBud said:

Mickey666 said:

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.

Be careful using terms like majority as they are often quite misleading.

I don't know where you got your figures from but they are very wrong!

Of course they are wrong as they don't fit the picture the many are trying to paint!
I'm not about homeowners I'm about housing, the stat that was quoted "like the majority of UK homeowners" actually means nothing.

This thread gets stranger by the day.

Your figures were wrong because Mickey666 made it crystal clear he was talking about homeowners which you then claimed was misleading and "proved it" by talking about housing in general. Rather than admit you misread or misunderstood his post you then double down and insist he should have been talking about something else... quite bizarre really!

BikingBud said:

So from the ONS survey roughly a third own their home, if they paid cash from day one whoopie doo great for them but I do not believe that to be the case ever.

Well I am living proof that your belief is simply wrong as I bought my last three properties with cash. And if you need more convincing of how wrong you are, how about HM Land Registry's own stats on the subject:

Cash sales account for between 30% and 40% of all transactions

BikingBud said:

Also bear in mind that these homeowners are likely mortgage free as they benefited from sale of the century type deals on RTB schemes but you can only sell the family silver once.

It is actually highly unlikely that mortgage-free homeowners benefited from RTB as RTB doesn't even account for 10% of all properties and only a fraction of those will have paid off the mortgage. But why let the facts get in the way of a good rant, eh?

mrlegend123

BikingBud said:

MobileSaver said:

BikingBud said:

Mickey666 said:

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.

Be careful using terms like majority as they are often quite misleading. The split is roughly into thirds, 1/3 own (mortgage free), slightly less think they own but in fact they are paying a hp agreement and the other slightly more than a third do not own.

I don't know where you got your figures from but they are very wrong!

A third of all homes are bought for cash so are mortgage free from day one. However every day that goes by another mortgage (that may have been taken out say 18 years ago) is paid off in full and so also now becomes mortgage free. The cumulative effect of this is that something like 60% of all homes are mortgage free.

I really don't know what you meant by "slightly more than a third do not own"; if you are referring to interest-only mortgages then that only accounts for about 5% of UK homeowners.

Having said all that, although I could be wrong, I think Mickey666 meant that the majority of homeowners don't care what their house is worth not that the majority are mortgage free... (notwithstanding that both statements would be correct anyway.)

Of course they are wrong as they don't fit the picture the many are trying to paint!

Here's where I went changesinhousingtenureovertime where do you get your assertions from?
I'm not about homeowners I'm about housing, the stat that was quoted "like the majority of UK homeowners" actually means nothing. There could be 2 or 6 or 200 or 4 million UK homeowners but without considering the whole range of housing solutions it doesn't matter what percentage of "UK Homeowners" you use as you discount statically significant data.  The stat I've used from the ONS looks across all housing as homeowning is but one solution for providing housing. So from the ONS survey roughly a third own their home, if they paid cash from day one whoopie doo great for them but I do not believe that to be the case ever. For people over 65 this increase to 74%, this is entirely logical as people have paid off the mortgages and are now sat in assets that they feel owe them a pension to sustain their future. What they are worth is entirely a different question. 

The flip side is that for the age range 16-64 whilst the own outright has gone up from 14>17% (~25% increase) those owning with a mortgage has dropped from 56% to 40% (~29% decrease), it's logical thereof to asses that the 74% figure above will also fall, people won't magically be able to buy unless something significant changes and if they can they might be tied to mortgages that are a millstone for 35-40 years, they are becoming more common just to buy into the scheme and there will be little scope left for betterment and moving into larger houses as circumstances change. Houses will sell due to the 3 Ds and it is not as simple as one house passing onto one child, therefore house sales will need to occur.  If the cash is not there to sustain the high asking prices see affordability stats: then something has to give.

Also bear in mind that these homeowners are likely mortgage free as they benefited from sale of the century type deals on RTB schemes but you can only sell the family silver once. 

Edit- And I think your thought about the meaning of @Mickey666 post is the tell, too many people don't care. I suppose the difficult thing is when the baby boomers have taken the profits and pulled the drawbridge, those left behind have very few options:
"But for any given age, people are far more likely to be renting privately today than 10 or 20 years ago. Almost a third (28%) of people aged 35 to 44 years rented from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 (9%) in 1997 (currently aged 55 to 64 years)" - So a 300% increase in private renting and it's only going to get worse

just retire from the thread like me. mobilesaver etc are not worth debating as they live on a different planet.......they just talk nonsense when other posters state Gov/CBs facts...

BikingBud

MobileSaver said:

This thread gets stranger by the day.

Your figures were wrong because Mickey666 made it crystal clear he was talking about homeowners which you then claimed was misleading and "proved it" by talking about housing in general. Rather than admit you misread or misunderstood his post you then double down and insist he should have been talking about something else... quite bizarre really!

You want to consider a small subset of the whole housing problem and are very happy that the stats that indicate the few are doing very well thank you whereas the reality is somewhat different. You bought 3 houses for cash yet many are finding it impossible to buy anything and are increasingly forced to rent privately.  Did you retain those 3 properties or sell them on at profit,  I wonder?  You cannot see the problem because you are one of the symptoms. 

Anyway, no point progressing as this is clearly a divergent argument and we are not considering like for like. 

MobileSaver

mrlegend123 said:

just retire from the thread like me. mobilesaver etc are not worth debating as they live on a different planet.......they just talk nonsense when other posters state Gov/CBs facts...

Oh the irony!

Facts like Government statistics that confirm more than 30% of homes are bought with cash but BikingBud doesn't believe it?

Perhaps you can help Crashy out and supply "Gov facts" confirming transactions are down 50%?

What are your thoughts on someone claiming they "don't care if the housing market collapses or not" when a few hours earlier they said they would love to see the housing market collapse?

SpiderLegs

Fwiw i think the chance of extending the holiday is increased, maybe 30% chance now. Depends what kind of stimulus Sunak wants to create across the economy in the budget.

If it won’t be extension it’ll be some other scheme. Regardless there ain’t going to be a HPC any time soon.

badger09

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

just retire from the thread like me. mobilesaver etc are not worth debating as they live on a different planet.......they just talk nonsense when other posters state Gov/CBs facts...

Oh the irony!

Facts like Government statistics that confirm more than 30% of homes are bought with cash but BikingBud doesn't believe it?

Perhaps you can help Crashy out and supply "Gov facts" confirming transactions are down 50%?

What are your thoughts on someone claiming they "don't care if the housing market collapses or not" when a few hours earlier they said they would love to see the housing market collapse?

This ^^^^

MobileSaver

BikingBud said:

MobileSaver said:

Your figures were wrong because Mickey666 made it crystal clear he was talking about homeowners which you then claimed was misleading

You want to consider a small subset of the whole housing problem and are very happy that the stats that indicate the few are doing very well thank you whereas the reality is somewhat different.

The reality is not different as the thread and post you responded to was explicitly about homeowners so why you decided to bring renters into the equation to show the post was misleading is beyond me and I'm sure many other people reading this thread too.

BikingBud said:

Did you retain those 3 properties or sell them on at profit,  I wonder?

I live in one and family members live in the others.

Mickey666

BikingBud said:

Mickey666 said:

TBH, I'm not too fussed about a housing market price crash because since I'm mortgage free, like the majority of UK homeowners, I don't really care what my house is worth because it's still my home.
In fact, bring on the crash, let house values collapse and then there'll be no point in the property tax you seem so keen on.  I'll still have my home AND will save tax - seems like a win-win to me 
Be careful what you wish for

Be careful using terms like majority as they are often quite misleading. The split is roughly into thirds, 1/3 own (mortgage free), slightly less think they own but in fact they are paying a hp agreement and the other slightly more than a third do not own.

Only misleading if you insist on making it so, which is why I specifically referred to "UK homeowners", which I'd say explicitly excludes those who rent their homes.  Of the '"UK homeowners', the majority own their homes outright, ie no mortgage.  Those with a mortgage are still the legal owners of the property, they just have a secured loan, which is not really the same as HP.  I take your point that they don't really own the property outright, perhaps a better terms would be 'unencumbered' but for the point I was making it's really just splitting hairs.

BikingBud said:

@Mickey666 and others that are wishing to sustain HPI how do you envisage your children/grandchildren ever being able to afford unless the prices of the asset come down significantly?

You misrepresent me.  I'm pretty sure I've never said I want to sustain HPI, in fact I've stated time and again that I don't actually care if house prices fall.  What I have said is that I don't believe they will, which is an entirely different thing altogether.

As for children/grandchildren ever being able to afford to buy their own home, are you seriously suggesting that young people today cannot afford to buy?  I'm sure that SOME cannot afford to buy but I'm equally sure that SOME can afford it.  I'm sure of that from personal experience of my nieces and nephews all under 30 who HAVE bought their own homes, as have the children of many of my friends and acquaintances.  

Sure, it's tough buying a house when you're young.  I bought my first house at 26 and couldn't afford it until I was married and we had two salaries to pay the mortgage.  As I recall, pretty much ALL my monthly salary went on the mortgage and luxuries such as annual holidays were very basic affairs for many years. 

It's all relative.  When my parent bought their first house it cost around 10x LESS than my first house and they managed it on just my Father's salary because, as was commonplace in the late 50s, my Mother did not go to work and stayed at home to bring up the family.  So, perhaps I should really be whinging on about how much tougher it was for me to buy a house than it was for my parents!

Mickey666

MobileSaver said:

Having said all that, although I could be wrong, I think Mickey666 meant that the majority of homeowners don't care what their house is worth not that the majority are mortgage free... (notwithstanding that both statements would be correct anyway.)

Both really.  I certainly stand by the point about the majority of homeowners (ie those not renting) being mortgage-free.  I've read that statistic from so many different sources.

My point about homeowners not caring about what their house is worth is based on the fact that it's largely irrelevant to them, even if they have a mortgage.  If all house prices dropped by 50% tomorrow what would happen?  Those without mortgages would be completely unaffected, and even those with a mortgage would also be unaffected in practice - their mortgage payments would remain the same and their mortgage term would remain the same.  Yes, some would be in negative equity but even so it wouldn't affect their immediate financial position - they'd still have their home, they could still afford the repayments and they'd still own it outright at the end of the mortgage term.  

Similarly, if all house prices increased by 50% tomorrow, homeowners would not be affected in practice, not even those with a mortgage because all their payments would remains the same and of course they would not fall into negative equity.  

So, on that basis alone, I don't see that homeowners have any 'vested interest' in high house prices as some sort of conspiracy to prevent young people buying their own homes.  The very idea is ludicrous.

But how would the aspiring FTBs be affected by such changes?  Well, you'd think a 50% drop in house prices would obviously make things easier for them, which is fine by me, except that anyone in negative equity is unlikely to accept a low offer for their home so they will simply choose not to move - or more likely not be able to move.   For anyone without a mortgage and looking to move, it's not the absolute house prices that matter, only the relative differences.  So, if my house is suddenly worth 50% and the house I want to move to is worth 50% less then the drop in my house value is effectively meaningless - which is why I don't really care what my house is worth.