Stamp Duty Ending

MaryNB

midimanuser said:

Waste of time. The cut came as a welcome bit of news but Estate Agents have been putting prices up and owners can afford to hold out. 
Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona. 
The market is artificial and a Stamp Duty increase would be plain stupid. 
Just wait and see what happens once they remove the eviction ban and landlords start coming after rent arrears. 
Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

Estate agents aren't responsible for determining sale prices, they just propose valuations. At the end of the day houses will only sell for what people are willing to pay. High prices are to do with supply and demand and the availability of credit. Estate agents may proposed high valuations to make themselves look good to sellers but they'd rather a house sell in a few weeks for 90% of the valuation than let it sit on the market for a year.

Many of the people losing their jobs are in the service industry and would have been low incomes and struggling to get on the ladder before Covid. A lot of homeowners on higher salaries are saving money because they can work from home, they're not paying to commute and not going on holidays. My home country has seen the housing market continue to rise despite no incentives similar to the stamp duty holiday and stricter lockdown rules.

I didn't benefit from the stamp duty holiday but still bought a house at the end of last year. After the 2016 brexit referendum people were speculating that it would affect the housing market and I was told to wait until prices dropped - they didn't. House prices continued to climb and I continued to pay rent. Where I live house prices have been increasing much faster than my salary and savings. Over the last few months in the area I bought most houses are going SSTC in just a few weeks.

Mickey666

MobileSaver said:

midimanuser said:

Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona.

I only know personally of one single person (a waitress) who lost her job due to Covid; the vast majority of my friends and family (admittedly many of them skilled builders/plumbers/electricians etc.) have never been so busy and are making more money than ever. I own several properties and retired years ago so no government support for me.

To suggest "most" sellers are on Government support is quite frankly ridiculous.

I agree that this sounds very unlikely.  Does midimanuser have any supporting info for this claim?

MobileSaver said:

midimanuser said:

Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

And live where exactly if not in "housing"?!?!

It always amuses me when HPCers get so obsessed with house prices that they forget for most people first and foremost their house is their home and not some random investment opportunity...

This, this and this !!!

mrlegend123

midimanuser said:

Waste of time. The cut came as a welcome bit of news but Estate Agents have been putting prices up and owners can afford to hold out. 
Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona. 
The market is artificial and a Stamp Duty increase would be plain stupid. 
Just wait and see what happens once they remove the eviction ban and landlords start coming after rent arrears. 
Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

well said. The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it. Overlay mortgage rates over house price over the last 15 years coupled with no wage growth. you will see the picture. Also, why are CBs buying mortgage backed bonds? The FED owns nearly 40% of US mortgages.......... artifical market since the GFC to reduce the risk premium. 

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

Thrugelmir

Getting_greyer said:

Do you not think the rise and increasing efficiency of home working has had an effect though?  

Only for some. In general a myth. Far less productive. Complaints abound of delays and time it takes for things to happen. Not least on this forum re conveyancing. 

Mickey666

mrlegend123 said:

midimanuser said:

Waste of time. The cut came as a welcome bit of news but Estate Agents have been putting prices up and owners can afford to hold out. 
Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona. 
The market is artificial and a Stamp Duty increase would be plain stupid. 
Just wait and see what happens once they remove the eviction ban and landlords start coming after rent arrears. 
Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

well said. The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it. Overlay mortgage rates over house price over the last 15 years coupled with no wage growth. you will see the picture. Also, why are CBs buying mortgage backed bonds? The FED owns nearly 40% of US mortgages.......... artifical market since the GFC to reduce the risk premium. 

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

OK, I'll play.  Let's assume the housing market really is 'rigged'. 
How would you suggest that people avoid the housing market, as midimanuser suggests? 
Where are they going to live?

MobileSaver

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

MobileSaver

Thrugelmir said:

Getting_greyer said:

Do you not think the rise and increasing efficiency of home working has had an effect though?  

Only for some. In general a myth. Far less productive. Complaints abound of delays and time it takes for things to happen.

As with all things, you generally only hear about stuff when something goes wrong; there's nowhere near as much reason to be vocal for the many people where home working has worked out just fine.

mrlegend123

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

I feel sorry for the younger generation and hope they don't extend stamp duty. Property tax is the way to go to make it fair with additional BTL tax on landlords. 

Bonniepurple

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

I feel sorry for the younger generation and hope they don't extend stamp duty. Property tax is the way to go to make it fair with additional BTL tax on landlords. 

Only thing is, Stamp Duty is only payable when you buy a property.  How many elderly people are still in family homes because by the time they’ve paid for solicitors, movers, stamp duty, estate agents and a new property there’s not enough left to make it a viable option?  Perhaps building fewer townhouses (therefore lots of stairs) and more bungalows or even just more versatile accommodation (bedroom/study with en-suite downstairs, more bedrooms and bathrooms upstairs)?

mrlegend123

Bonniepurple said:

mrlegend123 said:

MobileSaver said:

mrlegend123 said:

The housing market is rigged and mobilesaver is blind to it.

Hang on a minute! You have been repeatedly telling everyone that "a 1% mortgage rate increase will result in a 20% drop in prices"... how can that happen if the housing market is rigged?!?!

Either your initial "20% price drop" claim is nonsense or your "market is rigged" claim is nonsense or both are; they can't both be true so which is it?

mrlegend123 said:

however, plenty of room for mortgage rates to go further down (plenty of years in the rigged system). 

So even if this was true you are presumably recommending everyone get on the property ladder right now and make hay while the sun shines?

like I said before l, I referenced BOE report regarding 1% increase in real interest rates may reduce house prices by 20% over the long term (assets). Let's add 3% to mortgage rates and see if borrowers can afford it still?  extra few grand a year to the lender. 

I give up, I don't care mobilesaver. you don't understand and talking nonsense just open your eyes. The housing market post GFC is not the same hence the props. I would love to see the props go and watch the housing market collapse.

I feel sorry for the younger generation and hope they don't extend stamp duty. Property tax is the way to go to make it fair with additional BTL tax on landlords. 

Only thing is, Stamp Duty is only payable when you buy a property.  How many elderly people are still in family homes because by the time they’ve paid for solicitors, movers, stamp duty, estate agents and a new property there’s not enough left to make it a viable option?  Perhaps building fewer townhouses (therefore lots of stairs) and more bungalows or even just more versatile accommodation (bedroom/study with en-suite downstairs, more bedrooms and bathrooms upstairs)?

I agree with you regarding different types of property being required. However, older generation are asset rich cash poor/good which is more than the young generation majority being asset poor cash poor. It is time for the older generation to pay their taxes as they have benefited the most from Gov/CB policies over the years (yes, I know they didn't have a say). Stamp duty is bad, but a property tax at 0.4% a year of the property value is fair. You can't have houses earning more a year than your average then moan you can't afford the property tax!