Stamp Duty Ending

Mickey666

I take your point about the technology not being new and it being Covid that has pushed the recent large-scale WFH experience.  I've always joked that tele-conferencing would have caught on a lot quicker if air miles were dished out for every saved business trip

Personally, I loved regular WFH even 20-30 years ago, but it was never a permanent arrangement and more to do with the nature of the work I was doing at the time.  But I knew lots of people who absolutely hated it and really missed the 'social contact' they got at work - something I could never understand and certainly didn't miss.  

I also agree that the recently enforced WFH for many people won't have been a positive experience, though that might be largely due to the fact that it was enforced and mixed in with many other restrictions, so it's going to be interesting to see how things eventually settle down when lockdowns become a thing of the past.

From a purely selfish perspective the last thing I want is for there to be a mass exodus from cities and into the countryside, so I'll be more than happy if WFH becomes a largely lockdown only phenomenon.  Time will tell.

SandyN21

Just found this

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9203235/Is-Rishi-Sunak-set-extend-stamp-duty-holiday-Calls-grow-relief.html

strawb_shortcake

The company I work for said very early on that we won't return to everyone being in the office all of the time. Prior to covid we were all expected to work one day a week going forward it will be 2 to 3 days at home but there will be flexibility.
One colleague has relocated from Bristol to Swansea. 
I already worked with people that either rented Monday to Thursday and went home at weekends, or had lodging arrangements or even a second home.
The pandemic has enabled an experiment of WFH  that very few employers would have taken a risk with in normal times, they've seen the benefits, lots of people's productivity has increased, employers costs are down employees savings are up. Yes, people miss the social interaction but its work and non work where it's all gone from. If people can socialize again they won't miss not being in the office 5 days a week as much.
I'm a homeowner that will  be looking to move in a few years time, but I would like to see an end to the SD holiday as I'd like to see the government to start trying to balance the books now.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

I`m taking your first point as saying that the end of FOM doesn`t really matter much? It will be interesting to see how that prediction plays out,

I know it's not what you want to hear but the end of FOM is not the be all and end all and certainly isn't the death knell for HPI. There may be a one-off drop as the ramifications of Brexit kick in but that doesn't change the long-term trends of more births, less deaths, more non-EU immigration and more single households.

Crashy_Time said:

very small changes to affordability can affect transactions when a bubble is at full stretch, when people can barely scrape together the money to participate any more

One of your fundamental problems is that you blindly treat false suppositions as fact in a bid to justify your point of view. There is no evidence that we are in a "bubble at full stretch" and indeed it is practically impossible to know whether anything was in a bubble until after the bubble has burst. Somehow though HPCers convince themselves that they know better than everyone else even when years of failed predictions prove the contrary.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

I`m taking your first point as saying that the end of FOM doesn`t really matter much? It will be interesting to see how that prediction plays out,

I know it's not what you want to hear but the end of FOM is not the be all and end all and certainly isn't the death knell for HPI. There may be a one-off drop as the ramifications of Brexit kick in but that doesn't change the long-term trends of more births, less deaths, more non-EU immigration and more single households.

Crashy_Time said:

very small changes to affordability can affect transactions when a bubble is at full stretch, when people can barely scrape together the money to participate any more

One of your fundamental problems is that you blindly treat false suppositions as fact in a bid to justify your point of view. There is no evidence that we are in a "bubble at full stretch" and indeed it is practically impossible to know whether anything was in a bubble until after the bubble has burst. Somehow though HPCers convince themselves that they know better than everyone else even when years of failed predictions prove the contrary.

You said is was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

You said it was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

Was it a 1% increase in mortgage interest rates, the end of FOM or the end of a Stamp Duty holiday?

If none of those then what is the relevance to this thread? (Other than deflecting from the fact that every single one of your reasons for why there will be a house price crash has been shown to be somewhat flawed.)

midimanuser

Waste of time. The cut came as a welcome bit of news but Estate Agents have been putting prices up and owners can afford to hold out. 
Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona. 
The market is artificial and a Stamp Duty increase would be plain stupid. 
Just wait and see what happens once they remove the eviction ban and landlords start coming after rent arrears. 
Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

Mickey666

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

I`m taking your first point as saying that the end of FOM doesn`t really matter much? It will be interesting to see how that prediction plays out,

I know it's not what you want to hear but the end of FOM is not the be all and end all and certainly isn't the death knell for HPI. There may be a one-off drop as the ramifications of Brexit kick in but that doesn't change the long-term trends of more births, less deaths, more non-EU immigration and more single households.

Indeed.  There are 5.4m people in Hong Kong soon to have FOM into the UK.  I doubt that anywhere near that number will come here but even government estimates are 300,000, which is about the size of Nottingham.  Can't see that helping Crashy's house price crash predictions.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55357495

SpiderLegs

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

You said it was a fact that property transactions fell 50% from their peak, what do you think caused this?

Was it a 1% increase in mortgage interest rates, the end of FOM or the end of a Stamp Duty holiday?

If none of those then what is the relevance to this thread? (Other than deflecting from the fact that every single one of your reasons for why there will be a house price crash has been shown to be somewhat flawed.)

Tbh I’m not really sure why crashy keeps pushing this stat for. It doesn’t really seem to be relevant to anything.

transactions are low, house prices go up.
transactions were high, house prices went up.

MobileSaver

midimanuser said:

Most of the sellers and/or people in their houses are dead in the water and on Government support due to Corona.

I only know personally of one single person (a waitress) who lost her job due to Covid; the vast majority of my friends and family (admittedly many of them skilled builders/plumbers/electricians etc.) have never been so busy and are making more money than ever. I own several properties and retired years ago so no government support for me.

To suggest "most" sellers are on Government support is quite frankly ridiculous.

midimanuser said:

Better to save your money and keep away from housing altogether now. 

And live where exactly if not in "housing"?!?!

It always amuses me when HPCers get so obsessed with house prices that they forget for most people first and foremost their house is their home and not some random investment opportunity...