BITCOIN

HansOndabush

thegentleway said:

HansOndabush said:

thegentleway said:

HansOndabush said:

thegentleway said:

Malthusian said:

darren232002 said:

I really think you need to work on your critical thinking skills.

My critical thinking skills are enough to keep me out of money games and paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza bro.

Got any actual reasons why paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game is a good idea?

just wondering if you think buying gold is a zero sum game as well?

Essentially it is BUT fiat currency continues to lose value vs gold so it is a better store of value than cash. It has a long history over thousands of years of protecting holders from currency debasement.

Right so it’s just accepted as a store of value. It works because people believe someone else will pay more for it in the future. The gold hasn’t done anything useful apart from sitting there. In fact it’s cost money to store it. 

Not quite the whole story. Gold has use and utility for jewelry and for industrial use so although some is 'sitting there', it has potential to be used and is valued for that as well as being a store of value. In the past it has either fully or partially backed some currencies but now all currencies are fiat; not backed by anything other than a dwindling faith. That is why gold will always rise over the long term in nominal value compared to a fiat currency especially now when so much new currency is being created out of thin air.
It works because it naturally costs more to purchase it in a currency that is being devalued. In that scenario, someone who wants to protect themselves from further inflation/ currency debasement, will pay the going rate to buy gold. One doesn't have to believe someone will pay a higher price for it, one knows that someone will in the future. 
That is somewhat different to Bitcoin which has no use or utility other than a speculative token.

I didn’t realise you could predict the future!
Bitcoin has some uses too, eg dark web.
So it’s very similar, if people stop believing someone will buy gold for a higher price it will drop and only used for jewellery/industrial applications. if people don’t believe Bitcoin is a store of value then the price would collapse to being used for illegal activities. What humans decide they believe is a better store of value in the future is very hard to predict.

To predict the future you have to look at history which tells you that gold has been money for five thousand years and throughout that time  gold has maintained its value. It is highly likely that will continue.
The same cannot be said of Bitcoin which has been around for fifteen years and is highly volatile.

Malthusian

darren232002 said:

Malthusian said:

My critical thinking skills are enough to keep me out of money games and paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza bro.

Got any actual reasons why paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game is a good idea?

If you cant identify an obvious marketing play by a young company in a growing industry, then you're ngmi. 

So it's a good idea to pay £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game because it's an obvious marketing ploy. Roger that bro.

thegentleway said:

Malthusian said:

darren232002 said:

I really think you need to work on your critical thinking skills.

My critical thinking skills are enough to keep me out of money games and paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza bro.

Got any actual reasons why paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game is a good idea?

just wondering if you think buying gold is a zero sum game as well?

Yes.

While there is some industrial use for gold, which limits the downside potential, most of the time most people are buying gold in the hope of selling it for more money later (not to make watches or circuitry from). And if most people are buying gold in the hope of selling it for more later, punters' money in == punters' money out.

If people ever deserted gold as a money game en masse, leaving the only demand from jewellers and electronics manufacturers, the price would collapse as a huge horde of speculators and central banks chased a relatively small number of jewellers. The losses that would result might as well be 100% for all the good it would do the speculators. I don't think it will ever happen - and likewise I don't believe Bitcoin will ever go to zero. Bros will always want to get rich quick and nutters will always want to buy gold when they've got too much money to stuff under the floorboards.

The idea that gold is a hedge against inflation is a myth and based on nothing more than "shiny shiny metal go up". From 1972 - 2017 (can't be bothered to update the numbers), gold beat inflation in only 35% of 10 year periods. The FTSE World stockmarket index beat inflation 83% of the time. Entering a zero sum money game may beat inflation or it may not.

HansOndabush

When Wall St. sneezes, bitcoin catches a cold.

Bitcoin down over 14% since Monday

Gold down 1.1% since Monday

Which one has been a better store of value?

[Deleted User]

Can someone help me understand Bitcoin metrics better? 
As I understand it:
1) There are a finite number of them.
2) The total value of Bitcoin at current prices is $1 trillion.
3) Bitcoin holders have lost over $100 billion overnight.
That loss is as real as $100 billion measured any other way and is bound to ripple out into wider markets, stock markets first.

[Deleted User]

.Apple used to be the most heavily traded stock but daily average is only $13 billion.
Tesla is more of a speculator's vehicle and that is now top with $20 billion.
But bitcoin yesterday traded $96 billion - 10% of it's total value. That's crazy. It looks like a bubble, the speed it went up, the corresponding descent and the fact that so much of it is in play all the time.

wiseonesomeofthetime

In the headlines again today

Tesla will no longer accept Bitcoin over climate concerns, says Musk

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57096305

lozzy1965

ZingPowZing said:

3) Bitcoin holders have lost over $100 billion overnight.

I imagine (based on no research whatsoever) that most bitcoin holders will have just lost a paper $100 billion, from their profits gained so far.  Assuming most have been in it for the long term and they have already gained many times $100 billion.  As with any investment, it is the panic buyers and panic sellers who lose out.

thegentleway

thegentleway said:

Malthusian said:

darren232002 said:

I really think you need to work on your critical thinking skills.

My critical thinking skills are enough to keep me out of money games and paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza bro.

Got any actual reasons why paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game is a good idea?

just wondering if you think buying gold is a zero sum game as well?

Yes.

While there is some industrial use for gold, which limits the downside potential, most of the time most people are buying gold in the hope of selling it for more money later (not to make watches or circuitry from). And if most people are buying gold in the hope of selling it for more later, punters' money in == punters' money out.

If people ever deserted gold as a money game en masse, leaving the only demand from jewellers and electronics manufacturers, the price would collapse as a huge horde of speculators and central banks chased a relatively small number of jewellers. The losses that would result might as well be 100% for all the good it would do the speculators. I don't think it will ever happen - and likewise I don't believe Bitcoin will ever go to zero. Bros will always want to get rich quick and nutters will always want to buy gold when they've got too much money to stuff under the floorboards.

The idea that gold is a hedge against inflation is a myth and based on nothing more than "shiny shiny metal go up". From 1972 - 2017 (can't be bothered to update the numbers), gold beat inflation in only 35% of 10 year periods. The FTSE World stockmarket index beat inflation 83% of the time. Entering a zero sum money game may beat inflation or it may not.

Agreed, I think Buffet has a similar view on gold/crypto. 

User232002

Malthusian said:

darren232002 said:

Malthusian said:

My critical thinking skills are enough to keep me out of money games and paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza bro.

Got any actual reasons why paying £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game is a good idea?

If you cant identify an obvious marketing play by a young company in a growing industry, then you're ngmi. 

So it's a good idea to pay £30 for £5 worth of pizza and a £10 ticket to a zero sum money game because it's an obvious marketing ploy. Roger that bro.

Please try to make sense.

Your first point was that a crypto exchange must not believe in crypto because they were giving it away. The response was, its a marketing ploy that obviously offers no information on their private view on the direction of the crypto market. Now, you're rambling on about whether its a good idea for a customer to buy overpriced pizza as if that is in anyway relevant to this thread. I offer no opinion and don't particularly care about what people choose to consume for dinner.

I was bang on about the critical thinking skills.

HansOndabush said:

When Wall St. sneezes, bitcoin catches a cold.

Bitcoin down over 14% since Monday

Gold down 1.1% since Monday

Which one has been a better store of value?

Find the 'zoom out' button. You might want to use it...

Silly and cheap point scoring arguments like the above might work on cretins, but to anyone with a brain you just mark yourself out as someone who lacks the ability to reason well or has an axe to grind.

[Deleted User]

lozzy1965 said:

ZingPowZing said:

3) Bitcoin holders have lost over $100 billion overnight.

I imagine (based on no research whatsoever) that most bitcoin holders will have just lost a paper $100 billion, from their profits gained so far.  Assuming most have been in it for the long term and they have already gained many times $100 billion.  As with any investment, it is the panic buyers and panic sellers who lose out.

Trouble with that, lozzy, is that there is no reason to hoard bitcoin in the absence of the prospect of the price rising* - there is no dividend, no product, nothing to anchor the price - so I can see a general rush for the exit if the decline continues.
There again, with 10% of total value traded daily, bitcoin is subject to far more volatility than most investments. Those trading on margin are going to have to realise those "paper losses."

* I can see a logical case for bitcoin appreciating over decades and centuries, but I'm not convinced many investors could withstand the volatility.