BITCOIN

MeteredOut

User232002 said:

HHarry said:

Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  

Proof Of Work. One is backed by a distributed network outputting 700 EH/s to secure the network. One was born in to existence 6 months ago and is a premined token on a PoS blockchain.

Here is the graph of Bitcoins mining network vs DOGE. You won't be able to see the DOGE mining output, because it is so inconsequential.

MeteredOut said:

Apparently they all have utility. Speak about crypto, you have to speak about utility. You don't have to say what the utility is, you just have to say it has utility.

Keeping your created value outside of a fiat system that can steal it via the printing of additional monetary units at no real additional cost. 

Frequentlyhere said:

The first sight of global disruption, and BTC plummets. If it was considered a store of value it should go up at this point. 

In a crisis, you sell what you can; not what you want. Bitcoin trades 24/7. Its is one of the few things that you can de-risk on around the clock. If too many people try de-risking from the S&P 500 at the same time, the exchange enforces a time out so they can figure out a bail out to make everyone stop de-risking....

Frequentlyhere said:

But your point remains that it has no productive use. 

“I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can't stop."

Friedrich Hayek, 1984

A good money is the most productive thing a society can have.

Frequentlyhere said:

If we look back at Ukraine by the way, it wasn't BTC or gold that did well - it was the US dollar. Whilst USD suffered from inflation too, nothing was immune. Gold, bonds, inflation-linked bonds, stocks of all flavours. Even 'clever' moves to commodities didn't particularly work out unless you were a great day trader.

In the week prior to the invasion of Ukraine:

DXY: 97
Gold: 1890
BTC: 38000

Current Prices:

DXY: 106 (+9.3%)
Gold: 2375 (+25.7%)
BTC: 63000 (+65.8%)

All interesting, but its still speculating.

I'm starting to see a few more "I've lost $x thousands in crypto" posts on social media now (insta/tiktok). I suspect many are meme coins rather than BTC, ETH etc.

joep2

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

MeteredOut

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Typical thinking is that everything that is public knowledge is already already priced in, but that does not mean the price will go up or down after the halving. It will do one of those, but anyone who tries to tell you which one is probably doing no more than exposing their own position (ie. HODLing or out).

But, BTC is not a typical investment. 

Ask 10 different self-proclaimed "crypto experts" on social media  and you'll get 15 different answers, depending on which video you watch.

Scottex99

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Depends what your goal is, if it’s long term hold then doesn’t matter all that much.

In theory the price goes up post halving but it’s volatile so could go 20% in the wrong way first, nobody knows for sure.

Start with a small allocation and add more at a later date?

mooneysaver

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

HHarry

mooneysaver said:

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

I would if, after googling and reading an article on it, I had any clue what it meant.  Somewhere between memecoins (which everyone seems to agree are nonsense) and NFT’s ( what’s the consensus here? - to me they’re nonsense).

MeteredOut

HHarry said:

mooneysaver said:

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

I would if, after googling and reading an article on it, I had any clue what it meant.  Somewhere between memecoins (which everyone seems to agree are nonsense) and NFT’s ( what’s the consensus here? - to me they’re nonsense).

NFT are, and always have been, nonsense. I really do think that anyone that bought them thinking there were an investment, with money they could not afford to lose, should have power of attorney placed upon them for the safety of their own financial health!

As expected, the halvening was a damp squib. 

Not sure why the Runes protocol makes BTC remain as anything other than a speculative store of money; on initial reading, its just another flavour of meme coins that will allow shillers to extract money from the FOMOs.

Scottex99

Halving only a damp squib if you expected some short term massive pump in price?

The market is up since then and if increased demand from ETFs/Corps/Retail vs reduced supply from BTC mining rewards plays out as “expected” similar to previous cycles (plus new ETF money) then it could continue to rise

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

Halving only a damp squib if you expected some short term massive pump in price?

The market is up since then and if increased demand from ETFs/Corps/Retail vs reduced supply from BTC mining rewards plays out as “expected” similar to previous cycles (plus new ETF money) then it could continue to rise

If you look at social media, this is what meany were expecting "because it happened the past 3 halvenings". There's a lot of very amateur Technical Analysis going on out there.

Of course "It could continue to rise". 

It could also fall. How much (and for how long) people continue to follow the greater fool theory will determine which.

Scottex99

There are terrible takes on everything finance related on every social media, especially recently. Since when was that a metric to be considered? 

Plus the previous halving cycles suggest upward momentum approx a year from the date it happens, not after 1 day.

if there’s more buyers than sellers it’s goes up, if it’s the opposite it goes down, we all know this, I’m giving my basic reasoning why I think it’s the former.

Plus I’d argue that doing TA on super volatilie crypto assets is not the best use of time anyway, I can’t see how any TA possibly factored in Iran/Israel for example