BITCOIN

joep2

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

MeteredOut

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Typical thinking is that everything that is public knowledge is already already priced in, but that does not mean the price will go up or down after the halving. It will do one of those, but anyone who tries to tell you which one is probably doing no more than exposing their own position (ie. HODLing or out).

But, BTC is not a typical investment. 

Ask 10 different self-proclaimed "crypto experts" on social media  and you'll get 15 different answers, depending on which video you watch.

Scottex99

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Depends what your goal is, if it’s long term hold then doesn’t matter all that much.

In theory the price goes up post halving but it’s volatile so could go 20% in the wrong way first, nobody knows for sure.

Start with a small allocation and add more at a later date?

mooneysaver

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

HHarry

mooneysaver said:

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

I would if, after googling and reading an article on it, I had any clue what it meant.  Somewhere between memecoins (which everyone seems to agree are nonsense) and NFT’s ( what’s the consensus here? - to me they’re nonsense).

MeteredOut

HHarry said:

mooneysaver said:

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why 

I would if, after googling and reading an article on it, I had any clue what it meant.  Somewhere between memecoins (which everyone seems to agree are nonsense) and NFT’s ( what’s the consensus here? - to me they’re nonsense).

NFT are, and always have been, nonsense. I really do think that anyone that bought them thinking there were an investment, with money they could not afford to lose, should have power of attorney placed upon them for the safety of their own financial health!

As expected, the halvening was a damp squib. 

Not sure why the Runes protocol makes BTC remain as anything other than a speculative store of money; on initial reading, its just another flavour of meme coins that will allow shillers to extract money from the FOMOs.

Scottex99

Halving only a damp squib if you expected some short term massive pump in price?

The market is up since then and if increased demand from ETFs/Corps/Retail vs reduced supply from BTC mining rewards plays out as “expected” similar to previous cycles (plus new ETF money) then it could continue to rise

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

Halving only a damp squib if you expected some short term massive pump in price?

The market is up since then and if increased demand from ETFs/Corps/Retail vs reduced supply from BTC mining rewards plays out as “expected” similar to previous cycles (plus new ETF money) then it could continue to rise

If you look at social media, this is what meany were expecting "because it happened the past 3 halvenings". There's a lot of very amateur Technical Analysis going on out there.

Of course "It could continue to rise". 

It could also fall. How much (and for how long) people continue to follow the greater fool theory will determine which.

Scottex99

There are terrible takes on everything finance related on every social media, especially recently. Since when was that a metric to be considered? 

Plus the previous halving cycles suggest upward momentum approx a year from the date it happens, not after 1 day.

if there’s more buyers than sellers it’s goes up, if it’s the opposite it goes down, we all know this, I’m giving my basic reasoning why I think it’s the former.

Plus I’d argue that doing TA on super volatilie crypto assets is not the best use of time anyway, I can’t see how any TA possibly factored in Iran/Israel for example 

MeteredOut

Interesting to see if BTC is going to test down to the $60K level.

There's a lot of "why's it not gone to the moon after the halving like everyone said it would" on social media. Greater fool theory strikes again.