BITCOIN

Frequentlyhere

Scottex99 said:

For BTC, it’s the flagship that corporate money is going into now, the “store of value” and deflationary asset that could be like gold in some ways. 

I could have said the same when Russia invaded Ukraine or when COVID hit, but surely last night again shows that this isn't true?

The first sight of global disruption, and BTC plummets. If it was considered a store of value it should go up at this point. 

If anything, I think BTC acts more like a leveraged equity bet. It's very risk-on, not where you go when concerned about global stability.

Sidenote: A very rare thing that I find BTC useful for - a 24x7 trouble indicator! I think it went down 8-10% when the Iran news hit so that's a " pretty bad, but not quite disastrous" thing. Then it recovered and we're now at "this one will probably blow over" territory.  I always find stock markets a great way to cut through media noise!

itwasntme001

Frequentlyhere said:

Scottex99 said:

For BTC, it’s the flagship that corporate money is going into now, the “store of value” and deflationary asset that could be like gold in some ways. 

I could have said the same when Russia invaded Ukraine or when COVID hit, but surely last night again shows that this isn't true?

The first sight of global disruption, and BTC plummets. If it was considered a store of value it should go up at this point. 

If anything, I think BTC acts more like a leveraged equity bet. It's very risk-on, not where you go when concerned about global stability.

Sidenote: A very rare thing that I find BTC useful for - a 24x7 trouble indicator! I think it went down 8-10% when the Iran news hit so that's a " pretty bad, but not quite disastrous" thing. Then it recovered and we're now at "this one will probably blow over" territory.  I always find stock markets a great way to cut through media noise!

Looks like a leveraged equity bet but still very different from it.  With a leveraged bet on an equity (something sensible like a global index tracker), you at least expect it to go up over time - providing you can make all the interim margin calls whenever the inevitable dips come along.

With BTC, well it can quite feasibly go down to 0 tomorrow and stay there forever.  There is no fundamental reason why it should be of any value.

Frequentlyhere

itwasntme001 said:

Frequentlyhere sai

With BTC, well it can quite feasibly go down to 0 tomorrow and stay there forever.  There is no fundamental reason why it should be of any value.

Well, it could, but I think it now seems very unlikely. Only if something really out there happens like it being hacked or ownership made a crime or someting extreme like that. There are just too many people who've chosen to believe it has value.

But your point remains that it has no productive use. Also, as above, that though many people like it in good times they clearly don't in bad times.

Whether it ever evolves to be a perceived store of value, we'll see. Though I think fans of BTC should be careful what they wish for, as the long term returns of those tend to be pretty poor.

If we look back at Ukraine by the way, it wasn't BTC or gold that did well - it was the US dollar. Whilst USD suffered from inflation too, nothing was immune. Gold, bonds, inflation-linked bonds, stocks of all flavours. Even 'clever' moves to commodities didn't particularly work out unless you were a great day trader.

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

HHarry said:

And I think that’s what some of us Crypto Dinosaurs struggle with.  Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  Why is endorsing / supporting / advertising BTC Ok, but shilling with another crypto currency?

Valid point tbh but endorsing and shilling are different. As are believing and promoting but I know that’s not the main point.

For BTC, it’s the flagship that corporate money is going into now, the “store of value” and deflationary asset that could be like gold in some ways. And ETH is programable money with hundreds of quality dApps and protocols running on it. Whether these protocols actually have real world value in the future remains to be seen.

Memecoins on the other hand are spun up quick and heavily marketed, people like to speculate and gamble on them as you might just hit a 100x.

You can definitely see there are some similarities for sure and I see why people lump them together. Even DogeCoin does nothing but maybe Elon fully integrates it with Twitter at some point which gives perceived value. If WIF survives 10-15 years like BTC, then you could in theory say it’s legitimate.

Market taking a pounding right now, maybe a pre halving shake out

Can you explain what you mean by that? Are you saying the shakeout is something some entities are causing, or the result/side-effect of individuals reacting to the market, or something else?

You can see a lot of social media posts where people (strongly) imply that big organisations out there are manipulating the price for their own long term benefit by buying/selling in bulk (always with no evidence IME), but that people need to "keep strong" and "HODL".

User232002

HHarry said:

Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  

Proof Of Work. One is backed by a distributed network outputting 700 EH/s to secure the network. One was born in to existence 6 months ago and is a premined token on a PoS blockchain.

Here is the graph of Bitcoins mining network vs DOGE. You won't be able to see the DOGE mining output, because it is so inconsequential.

MeteredOut said:

Apparently they all have utility. Speak about crypto, you have to speak about utility. You don't have to say what the utility is, you just have to say it has utility.

Keeping your created value outside of a fiat system that can steal it via the printing of additional monetary units at no real additional cost. 

Frequentlyhere said:

The first sight of global disruption, and BTC plummets. If it was considered a store of value it should go up at this point. 

In a crisis, you sell what you can; not what you want. Bitcoin trades 24/7. Its is one of the few things that you can de-risk on around the clock. If too many people try de-risking from the S&P 500 at the same time, the exchange enforces a time out so they can figure out a bail out to make everyone stop de-risking....

Frequentlyhere said:

But your point remains that it has no productive use. 

“I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can't stop."

Friedrich Hayek, 1984

A good money is the most productive thing a society can have.

Frequentlyhere said:

If we look back at Ukraine by the way, it wasn't BTC or gold that did well - it was the US dollar. Whilst USD suffered from inflation too, nothing was immune. Gold, bonds, inflation-linked bonds, stocks of all flavours. Even 'clever' moves to commodities didn't particularly work out unless you were a great day trader.

In the week prior to the invasion of Ukraine:

DXY: 97
Gold: 1890
BTC: 38000

Current Prices:

DXY: 106 (+9.3%)
Gold: 2375 (+25.7%)
BTC: 63000 (+65.8%)

MeteredOut

User232002 said:

HHarry said:

Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  

Proof Of Work. One is backed by a distributed network outputting 700 EH/s to secure the network. One was born in to existence 6 months ago and is a premined token on a PoS blockchain.

Here is the graph of Bitcoins mining network vs DOGE. You won't be able to see the DOGE mining output, because it is so inconsequential.

MeteredOut said:

Apparently they all have utility. Speak about crypto, you have to speak about utility. You don't have to say what the utility is, you just have to say it has utility.

Keeping your created value outside of a fiat system that can steal it via the printing of additional monetary units at no real additional cost. 

Frequentlyhere said:

The first sight of global disruption, and BTC plummets. If it was considered a store of value it should go up at this point. 

In a crisis, you sell what you can; not what you want. Bitcoin trades 24/7. Its is one of the few things that you can de-risk on around the clock. If too many people try de-risking from the S&P 500 at the same time, the exchange enforces a time out so they can figure out a bail out to make everyone stop de-risking....

Frequentlyhere said:

But your point remains that it has no productive use. 

“I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can't stop."

Friedrich Hayek, 1984

A good money is the most productive thing a society can have.

Frequentlyhere said:

If we look back at Ukraine by the way, it wasn't BTC or gold that did well - it was the US dollar. Whilst USD suffered from inflation too, nothing was immune. Gold, bonds, inflation-linked bonds, stocks of all flavours. Even 'clever' moves to commodities didn't particularly work out unless you were a great day trader.

In the week prior to the invasion of Ukraine:

DXY: 97
Gold: 1890
BTC: 38000

Current Prices:

DXY: 106 (+9.3%)
Gold: 2375 (+25.7%)
BTC: 63000 (+65.8%)

All interesting, but its still speculating.

I'm starting to see a few more "I've lost $x thousands in crypto" posts on social media now (insta/tiktok). I suspect many are meme coins rather than BTC, ETH etc.

joep2

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

MeteredOut

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Typical thinking is that everything that is public knowledge is already already priced in, but that does not mean the price will go up or down after the halving. It will do one of those, but anyone who tries to tell you which one is probably doing no more than exposing their own position (ie. HODLing or out).

But, BTC is not a typical investment. 

Ask 10 different self-proclaimed "crypto experts" on social media  and you'll get 15 different answers, depending on which video you watch.

Scottex99

joep2 said:

I want to buy some BTC to diversify my investment portfolio. Should I wait for the uncertainty around halving to settle or is that already priced in?

Depends what your goal is, if it’s long term hold then doesn’t matter all that much.

In theory the price goes up post halving but it’s volatile so could go 20% in the wrong way first, nobody knows for sure.

Start with a small allocation and add more at a later date?

mooneysaver

Hmmm seems like since the halvening none of the Bitcoin critics want to discuss rhe Runes protocol. I can't possibly imagine why