BITCOIN

mooneysaver

Agree with the point on innovation. You only have to look at Project Pheonix to see the transformation potential.

I've also noticed cope comments seem to flood this thread whenever the price goes up.

Aegis

Scottex99 said:

Aegis said:

You could "win" by having a rational reason for buying beyond just assuming that the technical analysis you have done will hold over a period far longer than technical analysis ever works for, when it works at all.  Every other criticism is very much secondary to that, and no amount of talking about your returns will make rational people buy in. The trouble is it might catch a few people who are not informed enough to make a rational decision, hence talking about reasons for purchasing and zero (actually negative) sum games to make it very clear that on average a bitcoin investor must lose money regardless of what happens in the short term, so anyone making money does so based on redistribution of wealth among participants rather than by anything that bitcoin is actually doing.

Fact is, from an external perspective, you look like you have been lucky, not rational. As a result, talking about your own performance and how everyone should have the same exposure is meaningless - it's like listening to a lottery winner telling people that to get rich all they have to do is play the lottery, it just takes a bit longer for the fallout to really be seen.

I'd say it's more Fundamental than it is technical. I know guys who do TA on the charts but looks like astrology to me.

200 day MA and support positions I can get onboard with but not a lot of the other random patterns. You can see whatever you want if you look long enough.

This is the thing though, I've mentioned the returns here as part of a discussion on a certain topic. It's not all I've ever mentioned, although it is a high priority for me (what investment is it not?).

I work in crypto too, for me it's interesting watching the innovation in wallet infrastructure, DeFi and the myriad of other things that are being built "on the blockchain" every day. Of course then there's low level nonsense too, i.e send 1 ETH here and I'll send you 2 back.

Your "rational" is different to mine and the last thing I'm bothered about is trying to convince people to buy in here. Blackrock and others are doing that already.

Maybe I've been lucky, maybe I'm about to be even luckier, maybe my luck is about to run out. But as I said, I know this industry pretty well. 7 years is a long time in the space. I've never said anyone should have my level of exposure (and my bankroll can withstand every single coin going to 0 tomorrow anyway), what I've said is if I was new to this today, I would have a little bit of exposure, personal choice.

I believe the way the cycles and the halving work. I believe its near to digital gold. I believe in the pre-set fixed supply. I believe in the store of value, amongst a few other things. 

Those may not be rational to others but for me I can support that narrative and as adoption grows I think the price will go up.  

I also spend a lot of time explaining to people who ask me, how volatile the market is, how much risk is involved, how it's not a shortcut to massive gains etc.

You tell me what your bit longer fallout scenario is?

I'm saying $80-120k this cycle and I'll be cashing out a fair chunk. Halving will bring on a price rise, fomo, crypto summer, things will get overheated, something will spook the market and it'll start to turn, crypto autumn and then into winter, I'll be rebuying then. If that plays out roughly then there's a chance that the next cycle does the same at higher levels.

Previous performance not indicative of future but that's my thesis right now. Whilst keeping an eye on the markets and willing to stomach the current volatility too. I'll never catch the bottom or the top, but I can DCA in when the price drops and DCA out if/when we're at ATH again  

OK, you're saying $80-120k this cycle. Why? If it's just because of patterns of what the price has done previously, then that's technical analysis, not fundamental analysis. You can't do fundamental analysis on bitcoin because it doesn't have any fundamentals, so there is no fundamental analysis of bitcoin or any other crypto asset.  It is literally all technical analysis, which you have just described as "like astrology". On that, we agree.  Technical analysis has its place in trying to analyse how people will emotionally react to certain news, but the longer term you try to use it the less reliable it gets.  And yet that's all we have with bitcoin.  People constantly talking about resistance levels, long term trends, cycles, etc, all of which are technical analysis.  There isn't a fundamental analysis in sight because - again - there are no fundamentals.
In traditional investment terms, technical analysis is what you use to investigate the irrationalities of a price movement contrary to the fundamentals. It means that you start by working out what the expected fair price of an asset is using fundamental analysis, e.g. earnings per share, projected earnings per share, dividend yield, dividend cover, etc.  Basically a lot of fairly boring mathematical analysis, but based on the economic activity that the asset gives you ownership of. Then you use technical analysis to explain why people aren't trading the asset at that expected price and where the price can be expected to go next (NB there are some people who use technical analysis to understand everything, but my view is that such people are misusing technical analysis, possibly because they just don't want to admit that fundamental analysis is both boring and difficult).  But you have to start with that concept of fair value to explain what is going on with technical analysis, which is why I constantly ask for how people are working out their price targets - if it's not based on fair value, it's pure technical analysis, or astrology as you have already labelled it.

Scottex99

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

Cus

@Aegis do you ever advise your clients to purchase gold? My wealth manager on occasions has moved a small part of my portfolio into and out of gold.  I expect it's a play on hedging, or maybe other factors.

Do you see yourself ever doing this with bitcoin? Perhaps in the future my wealth manager will do the same.

Aegis

Cus said:

@Aegis do you ever advise your clients to purchase gold? My wealth manager on occasions has moved a small part of my portfolio into and out of gold.  I expect it's a play on hedging, or maybe other factors.

Do you see yourself ever doing this with bitcoin? Perhaps in the future my wealth manager will do the same.

I haven't, no. For much the same reason - it's economically dead, so any price change is purely down to irrational decisions that aren't based on fundamentals.  That said, a "unit" of gold can be turned into jewellery or used in certain industrial applications as a superb conductor or a catalyst for certain reactions, so an expected level of demand can at least be estimated.  But since the majority of gold is purely bought and held with no intention of using it for anything, the short-term price is entirely driven by sentiment.

Overall, it's just not for me, except indirectly as either mining companies or as part of the portfolio of an investment trust where the manager has spotted an opportunity based on projected demand.  I don't particularly like it as an investment class, but if a particular manager is good at analysing the industrial demand and thinks there's a reason to buy at current prices, I can't really argue with the idea of buying a commodity with the intention of selling it at a higher price where there is demand for that commodity in industry.

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

The supply is not about to decrease, and arguably, is always increasing (for now). There are plenty BTC available for people to buy, if they want to. It is the speed of supply of new BTC via mining that is about to decrease, but that does not reduce anyone's ability to buy.

But, the FOMO makes people think otherwise. Humans are so irrational.

Good to hear you defined your price target (something so many crypto advocates on social media who see/sell themselves as serious investors don't like doing), but do you want to put a timeframe alongside that (otherwise its pretty meaningless, I'm sure you'll agree? What is your technical fundamental analysis astrology telling you?

Malthusian

As an investment, gold is rubbish.

As a means of getting rich quick, gold is worse than useless.



The fact that we have gone from Bitcoin as "the new Internet" to "the new gold" should be extremely worrying for everyone hodling it. If it is true the normies will leave them for dust over the coming decades, which they will spend recycling all the old goldbug talking points about the imminent collapse of the dollar and the world economy.

Aegis

Scottex99 said:

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

That absolutely is not the definition of fundamental analysis, and rigidly claiming that your position isn't technical analysis because you don't use charts is absurd. As an example, someone that used strategy of just looking at the RSI measure of a stock and bought or sold purely based on that measure would not be using a chart, but they would be relying on technical analysis.

"It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable." is just a completely failure to understand what fundamental analysis is. It's not a qualitative assessment of what you think are the fundamental features of an investment, it's a specific set of calculations and measures that take known information and try to turn it into an assessment of whether the current price is good value or not.  For example, earnings per share, dividend yield and dividend cover can together tell you what proportion of a company's earnings is paid out as a dividend, what that dividend currently represents as a proportion of the share price and an indication of how long the company's cash reserves can sustain the dividend at its current level. Then you can look at things like recent price movement to help explain any anomalous results - for example, a share might be showing a very high dividend yield, but the price has recently fallen because there is concern that the dividend might be cut.  As such, some of the fundamentals might show a great buying opportunity, but further investigation shows that actually there's a significant risk associated with the buying opportunity.

With fundamental analysis, the idea is to take the mathematical ratios for certain key (or fundamental) accounting information and use that to work out fair value of an asset.

What you are doing is based on price movement alone, which is exactly what technical analysis is all about (a common adage among technical analysts is that "all known information is already included in the price", which has some merit to it in a highly efficient and rational market). If it works for you, then fine, but you have shown at every turn that you are embracing technical analysis as your primary means of working out fair value.

MeteredOut

It's always interesting to go on other forms of Social Media and see what's being said. This is typical of the quality of the the analysis you get to see. Look at how its going #ToTheMoon

Got to love the ironic search suggestion too

Scottex99

MeteredOut said:

Scottex99 said:

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

The supply is not about to decrease, and arguably, is always increasing (for now). There are plenty BTC available for people to buy, if they want to. It is the speed of supply of new BTC via mining that is about to decrease, but that does not reduce anyone's ability to buy.

But, the FOMO makes people think otherwise. Humans are so irrational.

Good to hear you defined your price target (something so many crypto advocates on social media who see/sell themselves as serious investors don't like doing), but do you want to put a timeframe alongside that (otherwise its pretty meaningless, I'm sure you'll agree? What is your technical fundamental analysis astrology telling you?

OK.

So, the block reward is halving from 6.25 to 3.125, sometime in April.

So what is "released" into the market from miners drops from 900 BTC per day to 450. And plenty of the miners won't be selling in current climate if they don't need to cover costs.

Regardless, the 21m number is fixed and halving rewards until ~2100, which is what some people see as positive.


Haha, I'm gonna go for April 2025 as a point where i'd like to have exited a decent amount. If it rips before that, I'll do it sooner. If it dips I'll probably get more. There is a certain bias there that once you've done the lows you might as well keep stacking and try to hit the highs too. But although it's a good part of my overall investments it's not game over if I'm wrong either. Once you've survived (and bought) at $3k a couple of times, some dips dont really phase you