BITCOIN

tg99

Scottex99 said:

tg99 said:

Hi, I have a small position in Bitcoin of a few £k via a spread bet account and am looking at finally getting round to moving it to a ‘physical’ holding instead. Any suggestions for which would be the best exchange to use eg in terms of fees and ability to deposit by debit card witth instant access to buy with, withdraw money, withdraw Bitcoin to a cold wallet etc? Just something v basic fine, would one of the main names like Coinbase, Kracken be best? As it’s a small amount I may just keep online in a hot wallet but if I decide to go for a cold wallet which would be the best to consider? Paper wallets generated online, hardware wallets like Trezor? Obv need to do some research on this but any pointers / suggestions useful, Thks.

CB or Kraken should be fine yep. I've never used a card to top up, I'd just send a bank wire in, but both of these should support it.

I've been using Swissborg for years too, a nice easy to use app with fiat/crypto/staking etc.

All of these options would need KYC, but shouldn't be too onerous for a small amount, POI/POA, the usual stuff

thanks yes I could wire in instead too as also see there is generally a fee for paying in by debit card. The other platform I was looking at was eToro, is that decent enough too?

Scottex99

Good point, you can ping an FPS transfer in from your bank and should be 1-2% cheaper than using a card. It might require a specific reference but that will be detailed in the deposit info.

eToro is fine, I don't think the fees are great and I mainly used it for CFDs back in 2017-18 but they should have physical versions.

If you type "best exchanges/apps to deposit GBP" into Google you'll get a decent list. No need to go with some obscure one

Scottex99

HHarry said:

Scottex99 said:

HHarry said:

Scottex99 said:

Not like we all popped up at $73k and started shouting told you so and you need to put all your money in right now or you'll be left behind. I'll not bother with them right now.

 That’s exactly what happens.  This thread is like the Mary Celeste when BTC is down, yet it gets a bit of a spurt, approaches ATH and suddenly it’s on page 1 of the board with everyone shouting “to the moon”.

I’m sure you can back that easy enough with a quote then right 

 There was radio silence from this thread in early September 23 at $27k, with no posts until November 23 ($37k).  Since Nov 23 the price has steadily risen, as have the responses to this thread.

And I have no reason for singling out this specific quote, but as an example “ New ATH this morning.  BITCOIN overtakes silver in most valuable assets by MC.  Google next?”

How many "To the moon" posts have you found then?

But yeah across every media source and message board, retail interest peaks when the price is rising, just like any other asset. What was the point again?

Can't win really can you:

Oh you only come on here to after event when the price is up
Oh you may be "up" now but that doesn't matter if you don't cash out
Oh you bought yesterday but WHY did you buy
Oh it's zero sum so you're only gaining if someone else loses

Etc.

I'm in it to make money, and I think this year I will

Aegis

You could "win" by having a rational reason for buying beyond just assuming that the technical analysis you have done will hold over a period far longer than technical analysis ever works for, when it works at all.  Every other criticism is very much secondary to that, and no amount of talking about your returns will make rational people buy in. The trouble is it might catch a few people who are not informed enough to make a rational decision, hence talking about reasons for purchasing and zero (actually negative) sum games to make it very clear that on average a bitcoin investor must lose money regardless of what happens in the short term, so anyone making money does so based on redistribution of wealth among participants rather than by anything that bitcoin is actually doing.

Fact is, from an external perspective, you look like you have been lucky, not rational. As a result, talking about your own performance and how everyone should have the same exposure is meaningless - it's like listening to a lottery winner telling people that to get rich all they have to do is play the lottery, it just takes a bit longer for the fallout to really be seen.

Scottex99

Aegis said:

You could "win" by having a rational reason for buying beyond just assuming that the technical analysis you have done will hold over a period far longer than technical analysis ever works for, when it works at all.  Every other criticism is very much secondary to that, and no amount of talking about your returns will make rational people buy in. The trouble is it might catch a few people who are not informed enough to make a rational decision, hence talking about reasons for purchasing and zero (actually negative) sum games to make it very clear that on average a bitcoin investor must lose money regardless of what happens in the short term, so anyone making money does so based on redistribution of wealth among participants rather than by anything that bitcoin is actually doing.

Fact is, from an external perspective, you look like you have been lucky, not rational. As a result, talking about your own performance and how everyone should have the same exposure is meaningless - it's like listening to a lottery winner telling people that to get rich all they have to do is play the lottery, it just takes a bit longer for the fallout to really be seen.

I'd say it's more Fundamental than it is technical. I know guys who do TA on the charts but looks like astrology to me.

200 day MA and support positions I can get onboard with but not a lot of the other random patterns. You can see whatever you want if you look long enough.

This is the thing though, I've mentioned the returns here as part of a discussion on a certain topic. It's not all I've ever mentioned, although it is a high priority for me (what investment is it not?).

I work in crypto too, for me it's interesting watching the innovation in wallet infrastructure, DeFi and the myriad of other things that are being built "on the blockchain" every day. Of course then there's low level nonsense too, i.e send 1 ETH here and I'll send you 2 back.

Your "rational" is different to mine and the last thing I'm bothered about is trying to convince people to buy in here. Blackrock and others are doing that already.

Maybe I've been lucky, maybe I'm about to be even luckier, maybe my luck is about to run out. But as I said, I know this industry pretty well. 7 years is a long time in the space. I've never said anyone should have my level of exposure (and my bankroll can withstand every single coin going to 0 tomorrow anyway), what I've said is if I was new to this today, I would have a little bit of exposure, personal choice.

I believe the way the cycles and the halving work. I believe its near to digital gold. I believe in the pre-set fixed supply. I believe in the store of value, amongst a few other things. 

Those may not be rational to others but for me I can support that narrative and as adoption grows I think the price will go up.  

I also spend a lot of time explaining to people who ask me, how volatile the market is, how much risk is involved, how it's not a shortcut to massive gains etc.

You tell me what your bit longer fallout scenario is?

I'm saying $80-120k this cycle and I'll be cashing out a fair chunk. Halving will bring on a price rise, fomo, crypto summer, things will get overheated, something will spook the market and it'll start to turn, crypto autumn and then into winter, I'll be rebuying then. If that plays out roughly then there's a chance that the next cycle does the same at higher levels.

Previous performance not indicative of future but that's my thesis right now. Whilst keeping an eye on the markets and willing to stomach the current volatility too. I'll never catch the bottom or the top, but I can DCA in when the price drops and DCA out if/when we're at ATH again  

mooneysaver

Agree with the point on innovation. You only have to look at Project Pheonix to see the transformation potential.

I've also noticed cope comments seem to flood this thread whenever the price goes up.

Aegis

Scottex99 said:

Aegis said:

You could "win" by having a rational reason for buying beyond just assuming that the technical analysis you have done will hold over a period far longer than technical analysis ever works for, when it works at all.  Every other criticism is very much secondary to that, and no amount of talking about your returns will make rational people buy in. The trouble is it might catch a few people who are not informed enough to make a rational decision, hence talking about reasons for purchasing and zero (actually negative) sum games to make it very clear that on average a bitcoin investor must lose money regardless of what happens in the short term, so anyone making money does so based on redistribution of wealth among participants rather than by anything that bitcoin is actually doing.

Fact is, from an external perspective, you look like you have been lucky, not rational. As a result, talking about your own performance and how everyone should have the same exposure is meaningless - it's like listening to a lottery winner telling people that to get rich all they have to do is play the lottery, it just takes a bit longer for the fallout to really be seen.

I'd say it's more Fundamental than it is technical. I know guys who do TA on the charts but looks like astrology to me.

200 day MA and support positions I can get onboard with but not a lot of the other random patterns. You can see whatever you want if you look long enough.

This is the thing though, I've mentioned the returns here as part of a discussion on a certain topic. It's not all I've ever mentioned, although it is a high priority for me (what investment is it not?).

I work in crypto too, for me it's interesting watching the innovation in wallet infrastructure, DeFi and the myriad of other things that are being built "on the blockchain" every day. Of course then there's low level nonsense too, i.e send 1 ETH here and I'll send you 2 back.

Your "rational" is different to mine and the last thing I'm bothered about is trying to convince people to buy in here. Blackrock and others are doing that already.

Maybe I've been lucky, maybe I'm about to be even luckier, maybe my luck is about to run out. But as I said, I know this industry pretty well. 7 years is a long time in the space. I've never said anyone should have my level of exposure (and my bankroll can withstand every single coin going to 0 tomorrow anyway), what I've said is if I was new to this today, I would have a little bit of exposure, personal choice.

I believe the way the cycles and the halving work. I believe its near to digital gold. I believe in the pre-set fixed supply. I believe in the store of value, amongst a few other things. 

Those may not be rational to others but for me I can support that narrative and as adoption grows I think the price will go up.  

I also spend a lot of time explaining to people who ask me, how volatile the market is, how much risk is involved, how it's not a shortcut to massive gains etc.

You tell me what your bit longer fallout scenario is?

I'm saying $80-120k this cycle and I'll be cashing out a fair chunk. Halving will bring on a price rise, fomo, crypto summer, things will get overheated, something will spook the market and it'll start to turn, crypto autumn and then into winter, I'll be rebuying then. If that plays out roughly then there's a chance that the next cycle does the same at higher levels.

Previous performance not indicative of future but that's my thesis right now. Whilst keeping an eye on the markets and willing to stomach the current volatility too. I'll never catch the bottom or the top, but I can DCA in when the price drops and DCA out if/when we're at ATH again  

OK, you're saying $80-120k this cycle. Why? If it's just because of patterns of what the price has done previously, then that's technical analysis, not fundamental analysis. You can't do fundamental analysis on bitcoin because it doesn't have any fundamentals, so there is no fundamental analysis of bitcoin or any other crypto asset.  It is literally all technical analysis, which you have just described as "like astrology". On that, we agree.  Technical analysis has its place in trying to analyse how people will emotionally react to certain news, but the longer term you try to use it the less reliable it gets.  And yet that's all we have with bitcoin.  People constantly talking about resistance levels, long term trends, cycles, etc, all of which are technical analysis.  There isn't a fundamental analysis in sight because - again - there are no fundamentals.
In traditional investment terms, technical analysis is what you use to investigate the irrationalities of a price movement contrary to the fundamentals. It means that you start by working out what the expected fair price of an asset is using fundamental analysis, e.g. earnings per share, projected earnings per share, dividend yield, dividend cover, etc.  Basically a lot of fairly boring mathematical analysis, but based on the economic activity that the asset gives you ownership of. Then you use technical analysis to explain why people aren't trading the asset at that expected price and where the price can be expected to go next (NB there are some people who use technical analysis to understand everything, but my view is that such people are misusing technical analysis, possibly because they just don't want to admit that fundamental analysis is both boring and difficult).  But you have to start with that concept of fair value to explain what is going on with technical analysis, which is why I constantly ask for how people are working out their price targets - if it's not based on fair value, it's pure technical analysis, or astrology as you have already labelled it.

Scottex99

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

Cus

@Aegis do you ever advise your clients to purchase gold? My wealth manager on occasions has moved a small part of my portfolio into and out of gold.  I expect it's a play on hedging, or maybe other factors.

Do you see yourself ever doing this with bitcoin? Perhaps in the future my wealth manager will do the same.

Aegis

Cus said:

@Aegis do you ever advise your clients to purchase gold? My wealth manager on occasions has moved a small part of my portfolio into and out of gold.  I expect it's a play on hedging, or maybe other factors.

Do you see yourself ever doing this with bitcoin? Perhaps in the future my wealth manager will do the same.

I haven't, no. For much the same reason - it's economically dead, so any price change is purely down to irrational decisions that aren't based on fundamentals.  That said, a "unit" of gold can be turned into jewellery or used in certain industrial applications as a superb conductor or a catalyst for certain reactions, so an expected level of demand can at least be estimated.  But since the majority of gold is purely bought and held with no intention of using it for anything, the short-term price is entirely driven by sentiment.

Overall, it's just not for me, except indirectly as either mining companies or as part of the portfolio of an investment trust where the manager has spotted an opportunity based on projected demand.  I don't particularly like it as an investment class, but if a particular manager is good at analysing the industrial demand and thinks there's a reason to buy at current prices, I can't really argue with the idea of buying a commodity with the intention of selling it at a higher price where there is demand for that commodity in industry.