BITCOIN

Scottex99

Aegis said:

Scottex99 said:

It’s not technical because it’s not the charts.

It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable.

Plus there is demand for it and the supply is about to decrease.

Does gold have no fundamentals either or is just shiny to put in watches?

There’s no point in debating if you’re so clearly adamant that none of this exists.

Based on previous cycles, the new inflows from the ETFs, the stuff that Saylor and El Salvador are doing, and expected increased adoption (imo) then yeah price target of 80-120 

That absolutely is not the definition of fundamental analysis, and rigidly claiming that your position isn't technical analysis because you don't use charts is absurd. As an example, someone that used strategy of just looking at the RSI measure of a stock and bought or sold purely based on that measure would not be using a chart, but they would be relying on technical analysis.

"It’s fundamental because it’s a fixed money supply that also happens to be decentralised, censorship resistant and immutable." is just a completely failure to understand what fundamental analysis is. It's not a qualitative assessment of what you think are the fundamental features of an investment, it's a specific set of calculations and measures that take known information and try to turn it into an assessment of whether the current price is good value or not.  For example, earnings per share, dividend yield and dividend cover can together tell you what proportion of a company's earnings is paid out as a dividend, what that dividend currently represents as a proportion of the share price and an indication of how long the company's cash reserves can sustain the dividend at its current level. Then you can look at things like recent price movement to help explain any anomalous results - for example, a share might be showing a very high dividend yield, but the price has recently fallen because there is concern that the dividend might be cut.  As such, some of the fundamentals might show a great buying opportunity, but further investigation shows that actually there's a significant risk associated with the buying opportunity.

With fundamental analysis, the idea is to take the mathematical ratios for certain key (or fundamental) accounting information and use that to work out fair value of an asset.

What you are doing is based on price movement alone, which is exactly what technical analysis is all about (a common adage among technical analysts is that "all known information is already included in the price", which has some merit to it in a highly efficient and rational market). If it works for you, then fine, but you have shown at every turn that you are embracing technical analysis as your primary means of working out fair value.

You've got me there tbf.

For me, TA = Charts, Fundamentals = All the rest plus market sentiment.

Earnings/Dividends don't apply here of course, something I know Tradfi people always mention when trying to determine any fair value.

You're clearly smart and clued up but I personally know 50 people I determine (I know only my assessment and means nothing overall) to be very smart who are all pro crypto.

And not just because I'm in an echo chamber either I would add. Actually I'm watching a YT vid right now called Crypto: The World's Greatest Scam.

It is price movement based what I'm thinking but it's not like I assume it must be going to $100k because it's hit $73k either.

I actually wasn't a massive fan of the 4 year cycles playing out similarly either (can't be that simple) but I think there is a good merit to it, and not just because it suits my narrative either.

Black swans can come along and interrupt that, another FTX or some huge Tether issue where it loses it's peg but these things have happened before and we're still back near the top

mooneysaver

Interesting analysis from the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/528c5414-dd80-4a5d-9360-17b4c06d3132

They calculate the benefits which will accrue to Bitcoin from AI are yet to be priced in. Everyone's too busy buying shovels (NVDA).

MeteredOut

mooneysaver said:

Interesting analysis from the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/528c5414-dd80-4a5d-9360-17b4c06d3132

They calculate the benefits which will accrue to Bitcoin from AI are yet to be priced in. Everyone's too busy buying shovels (NVDA).

Can you recall which minute? Listening now but i'm falling asleep and its all generic stuff so far - not Bitcoin specific.

Did they mean it would benefit the utility of Bitcoin, or just how it will impact its price? How do you think AI will benefit Bitcoin? Things are *always* priced it at the point at which they are known.

EDIT: OK, i give up, I played the whole thing and didn't hear anything about Bitcoin - admittedly, it was playing in the background whilst I was working on something else, so maybe I missed it, but I can't marry that podcast to "They calculate the benefits which will accrue to Bitcoin from AI are yet to be priced in".

HHarry

MeteredOut said:

mooneysaver said:

Interesting analysis from the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/528c5414-dd80-4a5d-9360-17b4c06d3132

They calculate the benefits which will accrue to Bitcoin from AI are yet to be priced in. Everyone's too busy buying shovels (NVDA).

Can you recall which minute? Listening now but i'm falling asleep and its all generic stuff so far - not Bitcoin specific.

Did they mean it would benefit the utility of Bitcoin, or just how it will impact its price? How do you think AI will benefit Bitcoin? Things are *always* priced it at the point at which they are known.

EDIT: OK, i give up, I played the whole thing and didn't hear anything about Bitcoin - admittedly, it was playing in the background whilst I was working on something else, so maybe I missed it, but I can't marry that podcast to "They calculate the benefits which will accrue to Bitcoin from AI are yet to be priced in".

Thanks for taking one for the team Metered.  I was really interested to see what benefits AI were going to bring to Bitcoin, but didn’t have time to listen.

AI is the next miracle thing for every aspect of life at the moment, but I can’t see what it’s going to bring to crypto.

Scottex99

Alright so 71K with the Halvening due soon, looks positive to me.

interesting to see what impact latest CPI figures may have and how it seems the fed likely can’t go through with 3 rate cuts.

Solana meme coins going crazy and the first sign of a bit of retail fomo for a while.

Something happening with rune NFTs and the first memecoin to be created on Bitcoin? I need to look into that.

i trade memecoins from time to time with a small allocation, fully aware that most will go to 0 very quickly.

Dogwifhat now has a $4bn “market cap” though, lol.

ETFs for ETH don’t look likely soon but I think I think this bullrun still has plenty of legs 

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

Alright so 71K with the Halvening due soon, looks positive to me.

interesting to see what impact latest CPI figures may have and how it seems the fed likely can’t go through with 3 rate cuts.

Solana meme coins going crazy and the first sign of a bit of retail fomo for a while.

Something happening with rune NFTs and the first memecoin to be created on Bitcoin? I need to look into that.

i trade memecoins from time to time with a small allocation, fully aware that most will go to 0 very quickly.

Dogwifhat now has a $4bn “market cap” though, lol.

ETFs for ETH don’t look likely soon but I think I think this bullrun still has plenty of legs 

That's crazy - and really is the modern day equivalent of the tulip mania - pure speculation. A number of influencers are making a lot of money shilling these meme coins, but there's a lot of gullible people out there, and all you have to do to profit is find someone more gullible.

Scottex99

I think there are a few levels to it.

it is pure speculation and I don’t know what the WIF committee looks like but these things do matter at some points. When retail pumped GameStop for example, it’s kind of similar. Not saying it’s good or bad but there is power in numbers.

if you want to mess around and buy 10 coins with pictures of animals with hats, fair enough. 9 will go straight to 0 and 1 might 20x.

i think most know they are gambling and would be equally gambling buying the Reddit IPO or NVDA top if they have no investor knowledge.

Then the influencers, I think for these things it’s the creators/devs who end up getting rich but influencers may get given tokens early to shill in their network (while dumping). But there is also so many terrible financial influencers on TikTok and Instragram too. Giving terrible advice on Saving/Trading/Crypto Real Estate etc.

i dont really have a point here other than the different corners of the crypto worlds add interesting 

HHarry

And I think that’s what some of us Crypto Dinosaurs struggle with.  Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  Why is endorsing / supporting / advertising BTC Ok, but shilling with another crypto currency?

MeteredOut

HHarry said:

And I think that’s what some of us Crypto Dinosaurs struggle with.  Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  Why is endorsing / supporting / advertising BTC Ok, but shilling with another crypto currency?

Apparently they all have utility. Speak about crypto, you have to speak about utility. You don't have to say what the utility is, you just have to say it has utility.

Scottex99

HHarry said:

And I think that’s what some of us Crypto Dinosaurs struggle with.  Fundamentally what is so different between BTC and Dogwifhat, that makes one a serious disruptor in finance, and the other a joke?  Why is endorsing / supporting / advertising BTC Ok, but shilling with another crypto currency?

Valid point tbh but endorsing and shilling are different. As are believing and promoting but I know that’s not the main point.

For BTC, it’s the flagship that corporate money is going into now, the “store of value” and deflationary asset that could be like gold in some ways. And ETH is programable money with hundreds of quality dApps and protocols running on it. Whether these protocols actually have real world value in the future remains to be seen.

Memecoins on the other hand are spun up quick and heavily marketed, people like to speculate and gamble on them as you might just hit a 100x.

You can definitely see there are some similarities for sure and I see why people lump them together. Even DogeCoin does nothing but maybe Elon fully integrates it with Twitter at some point which gives perceived value. If WIF survives 10-15 years like BTC, then you could in theory say it’s legitimate.

Market taking a pounding right now, maybe a pre halving shake out