BITCOIN

london21

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

aaj123

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

zagfles

aaj123 said:

Malthusian said:

adindas said:

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

"I'm going to get rich by going into that casino and putting all my savings on red."
"The casino is rigged and you're going to lose your money."
"Well if you're so sure of yourself, why don't you come with me and put all your money on black?"
Bill Ackman lost hundreds of millions of dollars shorting an honest-to-god pyramid scheme, because the market stayed irrational longer than he could stay solvent. Are you better at hedgefunding than Bill Ackmann?

Ho hum... here come the casino / ponzi alluding comments again. See why we need a thread on this? To help filter out noise that posts like yours create about this investment class. 

Why does it bother you so much? Some people think investing in the stockmarket is like a casino. And they're right to some extent, all forms of investment, even cash in a bank, is a gamble, the only difference is the extent.

If someone said my VLS100 investment was a gamble, I won't argue and get defensive about it. I'd let them get on with whatever they want to invest in. I have no interest in persuading people that VLS100 is a good investment.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

zagfles

adindas said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

Then I expect those with big money in the markets have done exactly that and the price will have moved accordingly. I trust current market value far more than random internet posters who seem to have a vested interest

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Or replying to?

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Or replying to?

Fair enough! :-)

adindas

zagfles said:

adindas said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

Then I expect those with big money in the markets have done exactly that and the price will have moved accordingly. I trust current market value far more than random internet posters who seem to have a vested interest

I am not aware anyone is asking you to trust any random person in the internet. People will need to do their own research and do what they believe.

The same things when you said people in the previous post in their thread, people should not persuade other people to invest in VLS100 in exchange with some bonds addition for instance to VLS60 (or whatever). But you might want to present the other side of the argument when you believe people making a daring misleading statement.

Like you I personally never have any interest in investing in Bond. You see some people just following the crowd. I did my own research and I believe in what I did as I could easily see that over a long run equity beats bond.

But again doing this we both rely on the historical data to expect what would be the expected outcomes in the future VLS100 vs VLS60 (say). This is just to show that people do use the historical data to predict the future outcomes which might not be 100% correct.

Frequentlyhere

The other element of pointlessness (though amusing) to this debate is that the Bitcoin market is manipulated at present. It's in no small part the reason why the SEC keeps rejecting a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Further, the liquidity of the market largely revolves around a highly contentious stablecoin, Tether, the one run by an ex-cosmetic surgeon. Ongoing progress of stablecoin regulation might make for a more bumpy ride than usual in future.

So I wouldn't even necessarily trust "fair market value" in this arena anyway.