BITCOIN

Malthusian

aaj123 said:

Ho hum... here come the casino / ponzi alluding comments again. See why we need a thread on this? To help filter out noise that posts like yours create about this investment class. 

And how's that going?
That reminds me, I should be one of the cool kids and click "thanks" on Rheumatoid's post. Up to 8 now.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

The only specific prediction you made in that thread was on 17/3/2021:

"Btw I am going to post again to this thread by end of this year about why you skeptics once again missed the boat from even this point onwards. Yeah - because BItcoin is gonna do another 5x from current price to around $300K. Am I naive ( or are Joe public clueless about Bitcoin)? We will see."

But you seem to have forgotton to post again by the end of 2021 like you said you would.

You did say in the OP on 25/7/2020 "possibilities of a 500 to 1000% gains in next few years cannot be ruled out" but that's hardly a prediction, you only need to google a bitcoin graph to see how volatile it is and how obviously you couldn't "rule out" such a massive shift in value.

You can look back at graphs of any highly volatile investment and wish you'd invested at a particular point or divested at another. Maybe I wish I'd bought on 25/7/2020. Or more like in 2016 when it was under 500 (hope you didn't "miss the boat" then!). And maybe you wish you'd sold on 17/3/2021 when you were taking the p out of the "skeptics".

Same could be said of a lot of investments. Maybe I wish I'd backed the winner of the grand national. Or bought last week's winning lottery ticket. Who cares, dwelling on "if onlys..." is a waste of time.

The point is what to do now. Anyone making out they have a better ability to predict the future than anyone else needs to provide evidence they know better. Getting it right sometimes and wrong at other times obviously doesn't provide proof, random guesses would get it right half the time.

Obviously, no-one can predict the future, people can make educated guesses but the market is full of people doing exactly that, that's what sets prices. If market direction is obvious, the market would have already priced it in. I'm not arrogant enough to think I know better than the market. All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

Speak just for yourself. Not all of us are so risk averse that we stay away from any and every volatility. I told you that the only reason I actually don't worry about my investments and sleep easy at night is because of my high crypto allocation. So different outlook, no?

adindas

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

Speak just for yourself. Not all of us are so risk averse that we stay away from any and every volatility. I told you that the only reason I actually don't worry about my investments and sleep easy at night is because of my high crypto allocation. So different outlook, no?

Who said I "stay away from any and every volatility"? It's the extent of the volatility that's the issue. I don't own shares in individual companies for the same reason, I use funds that invest across the market across different asset classes. There is volatility, but far less than crypto.

london21

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

aaj123

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

zagfles

aaj123 said:

Malthusian said:

adindas said:

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

"I'm going to get rich by going into that casino and putting all my savings on red."
"The casino is rigged and you're going to lose your money."
"Well if you're so sure of yourself, why don't you come with me and put all your money on black?"
Bill Ackman lost hundreds of millions of dollars shorting an honest-to-god pyramid scheme, because the market stayed irrational longer than he could stay solvent. Are you better at hedgefunding than Bill Ackmann?

Ho hum... here come the casino / ponzi alluding comments again. See why we need a thread on this? To help filter out noise that posts like yours create about this investment class. 

Why does it bother you so much? Some people think investing in the stockmarket is like a casino. And they're right to some extent, all forms of investment, even cash in a bank, is a gamble, the only difference is the extent.

If someone said my VLS100 investment was a gamble, I won't argue and get defensive about it. I'd let them get on with whatever they want to invest in. I have no interest in persuading people that VLS100 is a good investment.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?