BITCOIN

Section62

aaj123 said:

Section62 said:

adindas said:

Rheumatoid said:

£3 to £3.50 or therabouts

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

Please prove and provide evidence that you really believe in what you are saying not just talking nonsense without knowing what they are talking about. It could be like providing such as print screen showing your trading activities in the shorting side.

Curious why you aren't also asking for proof and evidence for "in the neighbourhood of $150k" etc and suggesting that could be "nonsense" as well?

Anyone who knows what they are talking about would know any figure given here today is just a guess, or as Scottex99 rightly says, "who knows".

I can sure give many reasons why 150k is a much more likely number for 2025. On the other hand the perhaps jestful 3 or 3.5 number was ludicrous and indicative of the decade and longer (and empirically repeatedly refuted) skepticism seen about crypto. Hence has the higher burden of explanation. 

Is the BiB is also jestful then?

Why would one person's random guess on an internet forum about what something might be in two years time need more justification than anyone else's guess?

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

Malthusian

adindas said:

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

"I'm going to get rich by going into that casino and putting all my savings on red."
"The casino is rigged and you're going to lose your money."
"Well if you're so sure of yourself, why don't you come with me and put all your money on black?"
Bill Ackman lost hundreds of millions of dollars shorting an honest-to-god pyramid scheme, because the market stayed irrational longer than he could stay solvent. Are you better at hedgefunding than Bill Ackmann?

aaj123

Malthusian said:

adindas said:

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

"I'm going to get rich by going into that casino and putting all my savings on red."
"The casino is rigged and you're going to lose your money."
"Well if you're so sure of yourself, why don't you come with me and put all your money on black?"
Bill Ackman lost hundreds of millions of dollars shorting an honest-to-god pyramid scheme, because the market stayed irrational longer than he could stay solvent. Are you better at hedgefunding than Bill Ackmann?

Ho hum... here come the casino / ponzi alluding comments again. See why we need a thread on this? To help filter out noise that posts like yours create about this investment class. 

Exodi

Malthusian said:

adindas said:

Have you heard about shorting assets. If you believe in your prediction you should be shorting BTC with 100x|+ leverage, You will become a multi millionaires by that time.

"I'm going to get rich by going into that casino and putting all my savings on red."
"The casino is rigged and you're going to lose your money."
"Well if you're so sure of yourself, why don't you come with me and put all your money on black?"
Bill Ackman lost hundreds of millions of dollars shorting an honest-to-god pyramid scheme, because the market stayed irrational longer than he could stay solvent. Are you better at hedgefunding than Bill Ackmann?

I think Bill Ackman shorting 'erbalife is an interesting comparison. As is often the case with these things, it's not a pyramid scheme until it is.

I'm sure there are other things this might apply to, but to be honest, I'm still chuckling to myself that:

Rheumatoid said:

£3 to £3.50 or thereabouts

caused more controversy in this thread than this:

aaj123 said:

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

I think we're way past people sipping the Kool-Aid, some posters on this forum seem to be downing it.

aaj123 said:
bitcoin exposure in (my) sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

Big yikes.

Malthusian

aaj123 said:

Ho hum... here come the casino / ponzi alluding comments again. See why we need a thread on this? To help filter out noise that posts like yours create about this investment class. 

And how's that going?
That reminds me, I should be one of the cool kids and click "thanks" on Rheumatoid's post. Up to 8 now.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

The only specific prediction you made in that thread was on 17/3/2021:

"Btw I am going to post again to this thread by end of this year about why you skeptics once again missed the boat from even this point onwards. Yeah - because BItcoin is gonna do another 5x from current price to around $300K. Am I naive ( or are Joe public clueless about Bitcoin)? We will see."

But you seem to have forgotton to post again by the end of 2021 like you said you would.

You did say in the OP on 25/7/2020 "possibilities of a 500 to 1000% gains in next few years cannot be ruled out" but that's hardly a prediction, you only need to google a bitcoin graph to see how volatile it is and how obviously you couldn't "rule out" such a massive shift in value.

You can look back at graphs of any highly volatile investment and wish you'd invested at a particular point or divested at another. Maybe I wish I'd bought on 25/7/2020. Or more like in 2016 when it was under 500 (hope you didn't "miss the boat" then!). And maybe you wish you'd sold on 17/3/2021 when you were taking the p out of the "skeptics".

Same could be said of a lot of investments. Maybe I wish I'd backed the winner of the grand national. Or bought last week's winning lottery ticket. Who cares, dwelling on "if onlys..." is a waste of time.

The point is what to do now. Anyone making out they have a better ability to predict the future than anyone else needs to provide evidence they know better. Getting it right sometimes and wrong at other times obviously doesn't provide proof, random guesses would get it right half the time.

Obviously, no-one can predict the future, people can make educated guesses but the market is full of people doing exactly that, that's what sets prices. If market direction is obvious, the market would have already priced it in. I'm not arrogant enough to think I know better than the market. All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

Speak just for yourself. Not all of us are so risk averse that we stay away from any and every volatility. I told you that the only reason I actually don't worry about my investments and sleep easy at night is because of my high crypto allocation. So different outlook, no?

adindas

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Why cherry pick? Look what and when I first posted in that thread and decide whether I was in the right direction or not. 

If my suggestion had been heeded, then like me, you would have still had bitcoin exposure in your sipp and isa which is one that gives me the most certainty about my future pension value. 

But ofcourse now the FCA decided to 'protect' retail from such benefits!

All I'll predict on stuff like crypto is that'll it'll carry on being highly volatile, and as such, I won't touch it with a bargepole. And if it does gain "500-1000%" I won't feel I've lost out, anymore than if I'd not staked half my pension on the winner of the 3:30 at Kempton Park.

Speak just for yourself. Not all of us are so risk averse that we stay away from any and every volatility. I told you that the only reason I actually don't worry about my investments and sleep easy at night is because of my high crypto allocation. So different outlook, no?

Who said I "stay away from any and every volatility"? It's the extent of the volatility that's the issue. I don't own shares in individual companies for the same reason, I use funds that invest across the market across different asset classes. There is volatility, but far less than crypto.