BITCOIN

zagfles

adindas said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

Then I expect those with big money in the markets have done exactly that and the price will have moved accordingly. I trust current market value far more than random internet posters who seem to have a vested interest

zagfles

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Or replying to?

aaj123

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

london21 said:

No Idea, its a gamble so could be £0 or £10k

This is exactly the sort of statement which is downright misleading. It is about as wrong to mention 0 for bitcoin as it is to say Apple could be bankrupt by 2025. Both theoretically possible but pointless mentioning as if its any kind of reasonable scenario. So there is that. 

So pointless mentioning something that is "theoretically possible" in a reply that starts "no idea"? Apple could be bust by 2025. I could win the lottery on Saturday. Those statements aren't misleading, they're statements of fact. "Could" means they're possible, not likely.

You really need to tone down the defensiveness. People might think you have a vested interest. 

Well by vested interest, yeah I am invested in bitcoin and eth but I suppose that was more than obvious and something I directly said a few times. Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Or replying to?

Fair enough! :-)

adindas

zagfles said:

adindas said:

zagfles said:

aaj123 said:

COYI123 said:

Hi everyone , just wondering everyone’s predicted prices for bitcoin by 2025

In the neighbourhood of $150k but nonetheless the poster who replied above will have a bunch of 'Thanks' against their post. 

Always interesting to check previous predications of those who attempt to predict the future

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6173073/bitcoin-exposure-now-possible-in-an-isa/p2

Did you ever watch the weather forecast that is predicting the future.

Economist predicting the recession by yields curve inversion

Scientists mathematician are doing prediction by for instance doing regression modelling using historical data and then perform extrapolation.

Noone could predict the future with100% accuracy with100% degree of confidence, but in trading / investing people say you will only need 60% (say) to be in the right side to get a meaningful result. 50% is pure gambling as that is the expected outcomes when people are tossing a fair coin.

Then I expect those with big money in the markets have done exactly that and the price will have moved accordingly. I trust current market value far more than random internet posters who seem to have a vested interest

I am not aware anyone is asking you to trust any random person in the internet. People will need to do their own research and do what they believe.

The same things when you said people in the previous post in their thread, people should not persuade other people to invest in VLS100 in exchange with some bonds addition for instance to VLS60 (or whatever). But you might want to present the other side of the argument when you believe people making a daring misleading statement.

Like you I personally never have any interest in investing in Bond. You see some people just following the crowd. I did my own research and I believe in what I did as I could easily see that over a long run equity beats bond.

But again doing this we both rely on the historical data to expect what would be the expected outcomes in the future VLS100 vs VLS60 (say). This is just to show that people do use the historical data to predict the future outcomes which might not be 100% correct.

Frequentlyhere

The other element of pointlessness (though amusing) to this debate is that the Bitcoin market is manipulated at present. It's in no small part the reason why the SEC keeps rejecting a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Further, the liquidity of the market largely revolves around a highly contentious stablecoin, Tether, the one run by an ex-cosmetic surgeon. Ongoing progress of stablecoin regulation might make for a more bumpy ride than usual in future.

So I wouldn't even necessarily trust "fair market value" in this arena anyway. 

silvercue

Frequentlyhere said:

The other element of pointlessness (though amusing) to this debate is that the Bitcoin market is manipulated at present. It's in no small part the reason why the SEC keeps rejecting a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Further, the liquidity of the market largely revolves around a highly contentious stablecoin, Tether, the one run by an ex-cosmetic surgeon. Ongoing progress of stablecoin regulation might make for a more bumpy ride than usual in future.

So I wouldn't even necessarily trust "fair market value" in this arena anyway. 

Bitcoin market is supply v demand, just like other markets.  The SEC, under Gary Gensler and Biden administration, have Crypto in their sights and are doing what they can to make thing difficult in the US. 

Nothing they have done so far has caused a sell off.    There are politicians starting to put their names forward for next Presidential race who are very pro crypto, so the attitude of the SEC would most likley change if one of them got in.  

Including Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr, so it is not a Red or Blue thing.

aaj123

And if indeed we are discussing the SEC then let's not forget that Gary G and the SEC overall have repeatedly signaled that Bitcoin is NOT one of the coins where classification as a security or not is under debate. So while I also hold eth, I do acknowledge that in this respect, BTC has a bluer sky ahead. 

silvercue

aaj123 said:

And if indeed we are discussing the SEC then let's not forget that Gary G and the SEC overall have repeatedly signaled that Bitcoin is NOT one of the coins where classification as a security or not is under debate. So while I also hold eth, I do acknowledge that in this respect, BTC has a bluer sky ahead. 

This is true.  But what is apparent is that the SEC seem to have a seemingly random method for selecting which "securities" or stablecoins they decide to go after.  They have even turned on coins that they have previously talked positively about.  Some clarity and clear understanding of where they are heading would be good.  And protecting investors should be part of their agenda, so clarity is essential

Section62

aaj123 said:

 

Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Because 'No idea' is the closest to being the right answer to the OP's question?

This is a consumer forum with a broad cross-section of users.  The most important thing is nobody goes away from this thread (the sub-thread merged into the big one) thinking the only way is up, or that making guesses what the value of Bitcoin might be in two years time represents a good investment strategy.

Bitcoin could be a good investment.  But if someone needs to ask random internet strangers what it might be worth in 2025 then the fair answer should be "Are you sure this is right for you?".

You've been criticising others for being "misleading", but "In the neighbourhood of $150k" is no more accurate than anything else which has been posted by those you criticise.

aaj123

Section62 said:

aaj123 said:

 

Why would you think a comment starting with 'No idea' is worth posting at all?

Because 'No idea' is the closest to being the right answer to the OP's question?

This is a consumer forum with a broad cross-section of users.  The most important thing is nobody goes away from this thread (the sub-thread merged into the big one) thinking the only way is up, or that making guesses what the value of Bitcoin might be in two years time represents a good investment strategy.

Bitcoin could be a good investment.  But if someone needs to ask random internet strangers what it might be worth in 2025 then the fair answer should be "Are you sure this is right for you?".

You've been criticising others for being "misleading", but "In the neighbourhood of $150k" is no more accurate than anything else which has been posted by those you criticise.

To be honest, that 150k comment was largely triggered by the response from the first reply and a desire to neutralise the damage done by that.