BITCOIN

Frequentlyhere

Have you thought about writing a column for Zerohedge, Darren? 

You alternately paint a picture of a Fed either raising interest rates so hard that it destroys pension funds or being so lax that it brings about the next Weimar republic. There is such a thing as moderation, you know.

Where you are right though is that it is very important for inflation to be brought to target, but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that this is beyond the power of the Fed to achieve. 

The far more likely course of events is that the Fed have already allowed high inflation to erode some of their liabilities (and it may be that moderately high inflation continues to do that for a while longer), they're now slowing that process down by raising interest rates, and at some point either brought about by demand destruction or potentially maybe some lynchpin of the financial system showing strain, or both, they'll stop rising rates and perhaps cut them (and perhaps yes, god forbid, print money too).

To make it your base case not only that the World's reserve currency will effectively fail, but also that as a result we'll all pile into an asset class that's shown itself to be hilariously awful in so many ways, is just...well....quite something.

I'm not sure where to begin with your comparison of the fiat currency system with FTX. Perhaps to state the obvious, they're a little bit different?

Fiat currencies are longstanding money instruments backed by history, Governments and their armies that we all use every day.

FTX was a wildly fraudulent platform that existed for a few years, was backed by nothing, and was run from the Bahamas by a 30 year old who mostly preferred playing League of Legends on his phone, all in order to service/front-run a waning demand for assorted speculative doggie tokens.

Anyway, the irony in all of this is that the only thing being destroyed by higher inflation and associated monetary policy that you're ostensibly so concerned about is...lo and behold.. not the $ or £ but Bitcoin and the rest of crypto.

What use is avoiding 10% inflation in pounds if you've swapped it for an asset which has dropped by 75%+ in the same time period?

Exodi

darren232002 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

This is interesting, as you'd previously said that you'd sell everything you had if bitcoin ever went below $20k, yet here we are. Your 'changing' opinion seems to be "Bitcoin is going to the Moon" to "Bitcoin is definitely going to the Moon".

GDB2222 said:

OTOH 10,000 other crypto currencies have been created, and there seems to be no end in sight. 

To be fair GBD222, 99% of them are just pump and dump schemes to steal money. Hence why the narrative is being subtlely changed from "Crypto is the future" to "Bitcoin is the future".

adamp87 said:

The actions of exchanges over the weekend, FTX surely has knocked back confidence for a long time and further pushed back any form of adoption.

You must be having a wind up. Every other week we see a multi-billion pound crypto firm collapse, at this point it's just business as usual. I'm not sure what confidence there is to knockback - the only people who remain steadfast in their loyalty are the crypto bros. Western governments wouldn't even humour the idea of considering adoption.

darren232002 said:

History is littered with examples of people and countries that lost fortunes because they didn't recognise this shift in time.

You say it best.

DannyCarey

Exodi said:

darren232002 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

This is interesting, as you'd previously said that you'd sell everything you had if bitcoin ever went below $20k, yet here we are. Your 'changing' opinion seems to be "Bitcoin is going to the Moon" to "Bitcoin is definitely going to the Moon".

GDB2222 said:

OTOH 10,000 other crypto currencies have been created, and there seems to be no end in sight. 

To be fair GBD222, 99% of them are just pump and dump schemes to steal money. Hence why the narrative is being subtlely changed from "Crypto is the future" to "Bitcoin is the future".

adamp87 said:

The actions of exchanges over the weekend, FTX surely has knocked back confidence for a long time and further pushed back any form of adoption.

You must be having a wind up. Every other week we see a multi-billion pound crypto firm collapse, at this point it's just business as usual. I'm not sure what confidence there is to knockback - the only people who remain steadfast in their loyalty are the crypto bros. Western governments wouldn't even humour the idea of considering adoption.

darren232002 said:

History is littered with examples of people and countries that lost fortunes because they didn't recognise this shift in time.

You say it best.

Bitcoin holders/believers have always said this, not just now, or any time someone chooses to do something fraudulent which has absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin...

Bitcoin is the only organic and legitimate cryptocurrency going.

The rest are all quite literally pump and dumps / scams. 
That's also not to say that the Bitcoin "scene"  isn't full of scammers and snake oil salesmen, I am talking about the YouTube influencers etc... the whole thing is full of dodgy people. 

Exodi

DannyCarey said:

Exodi said:

darren232002 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

This is interesting, as you'd previously said that you'd sell everything you had if bitcoin ever went below $20k, yet here we are. Your 'changing' opinion seems to be "Bitcoin is going to the Moon" to "Bitcoin is definitely going to the Moon".

GDB2222 said:

OTOH 10,000 other crypto currencies have been created, and there seems to be no end in sight. 

To be fair GBD222, 99% of them are just pump and dump schemes to steal money. Hence why the narrative is being subtlely changed from "Crypto is the future" to "Bitcoin is the future".

adamp87 said:

The actions of exchanges over the weekend, FTX surely has knocked back confidence for a long time and further pushed back any form of adoption.

You must be having a wind up. Every other week we see a multi-billion pound crypto firm collapse, at this point it's just business as usual. I'm not sure what confidence there is to knockback - the only people who remain steadfast in their loyalty are the crypto bros. Western governments wouldn't even humour the idea of considering adoption.

darren232002 said:

History is littered with examples of people and countries that lost fortunes because they didn't recognise this shift in time.

You say it best.

Bitcoin holders/believers have always said this, not just now, or any time someone chooses to do something fraudulent which has absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin...

Bitcoin is the only organic and legitimate cryptocurrency going.

The rest are all quite literally pump and dumps / scams. 
That's also not to say that the Bitcoin "scene"  isn't full of scammers and snake oil salesmen, I am talking about the YouTube influencers etc... the whole thing is full of dodgy people. 

You prove my point to an extent - obviously bitcoin holders believe in bitcoin. But there are more currencies than just bitcoin, and people invest in more than just bitcoin - they must have had faith in them in the past? I was just pointing out that the narrative has changed in the last year from 'crypto' being the future, to explicitly 'bitcoin' - obviously, as you reference, quickly moving the goalposts in response to the rampant pump and dumping that has occurred in virtually all the other cryptocurrencies.

But that's OK, because I'd still be suprised if bitcoin doesn't end up going the way of all the others over the next few years. Especially as we're close to (if not already at) the point it is no longer profitable to mine.

DannyCarey

My personal opinion is that it's the people who missed Bitcoin's multiple run ups who jump on stupid dog coins and other meme tokens hoping to catch "the next big thing", but there is no next big thing in crypto currency. It's Bitcoin or nothing succeeds. Its the only one without a central figure making decisions, VCs heavily influencing protocol decisions and changes etc. 

I don't see a mass moving of the goalposts. Bitcoiners have said everything else is a scam from day one, as they know how the protocol has grown organically from nothing, devoid of corruption. It has no central figure behind it making outlandish changes on a whim and corrupting it at will. 

The people who buy stupid dog coins and inevitably get burned either stay away from all things cryptocurrency, or maybe stick around, learn a thing or two and realise that Bitcoin is the one that has a legitimate chance. 

Section62

DannyCarey said:

I don't see a mass moving of the goalposts. Bitcoiners have said everything else is a scam from day one, as they know how the protocol has grown organically from nothing, devoid of corruption. It has no central figure behind it making outlandish changes on a whim and corrupting it at will. 

No they haven't.  There's at least one (previously) regular poster on this thread who was suggesting some specific crypto other than Bitcoin was/were a good investment.

There are also some who have objected in the strongest possible terms whenever the word 'scam' is used in relation to cryptocurrency.

Malthusian

"When the facts change, I change publicly declared experimental tests retrospectively so that I don't have to change my mind. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes, maybe

Kevinstaaark

Bitcoin is a good investment if you have a high-risk tolerance, a strong financial position and want to increase your portfolio's exposure to digital currency

Frequentlyhere

DannyCarey said:

The people who buy stupid dog coins and inevitably get burned either stay away from all things cryptocurrency, or maybe stick around, learn a thing or two and realise that Bitcoin is the one that has a legitimate chance.

A legitimate chance at achieving what, Danny?

DannyCarey

Of being an appreciating asset with a fixed supply, which cannot be debased, that is accepted and used globally to send instant, permission-less borderless payments without any intermediary or third party, final settlement in around 10 minutes, that kind of thing.