BITCOIN

DannyCarey

That point, whilst mildly amusing, is full of hot air.

p00hsticks

GDB2222 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I thought that there's a limit on the number of BTC that can be mined. So, it's bound to increase in value?

That assumes that more people want a thing than the number of those things available.

DannyCarey

So we've a guy talking about farts, then a poster called "P00hsticks" weighs in

Vintage MSE

Frequentlyhere

darren232002 said:

Nothings changed. Your governments are currently running interest rates that they can't sustain despite them being deeply negative real rates. Fiat world is still a clown show.

What if I told you there’s another financial firm creating an asset out of thin air & reinvesting it into a system of centralized intermediaries that use it as collateral for debt but instead of going bankrupt during contractions the US government bails them out w/ taxpayer funds?

Time to get your head down and convert fiat in to Bitcoin for the next two years whilst everyone thinks its dead, only to have everyone tell you you're 'lucky' in four years time...

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen and there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially). The housing market has softened, but employment is high.  There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

User232002

Deleted_User said:

Hilarious. Enjoy being poor

Aww... Bless.

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

bugbyte_2 said:

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I'd answer this if I hadn't already set out extensively the exact reasons for my thesis many times over.

Frequentlyhere said:

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Frequentlyhere said:

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen 

To 3%. Inflation is at 8%. Deeply negative real rates.

And at that rate, the interest payment on US debt is their second largest expense; higher than the defence budget. Unsustainable.

Frequentlyhere said:

there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially)

Its 8%. Its gone from impossible, to an average of 2% over the decade, to a little hotter than usual (3%) to transitory. And now its gone from 8.1 to 7.9 or w/e and its great because its 'softening'? Absolute clown show of shifting goalposts every single time.

Frequentlyhere said:

There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

The last time I quoted you, I specifically asked for you 'stop spouting crazy ideas that I don't think will happen.'

I've stated very clearly what I think will happen in the long run; It doesn't involve fiat disappearing and it doesn't involve a disaster that brings about a new Bitcoin regime. Have you actually read my posts or are you, as I suspect, simply arguing against a trope you have invented in your own mind?

Frequentlyhere said:

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

You'e not exaggerating? Ok, so in this hypothetical 'implosion' and 'bonfire', what does it say that Bitcoin is down only 8% from where you last posted a graph a month ago? How about the fact that its still up nearly 2x on my cost basis, which I think I'm still safe in saying is better than anything else I could have bought at the time...

In any event, a centralised exchange imploding due to fraudulent and criminal acts is a great advert for why Bitcoin needs to exist. 

And again, defi seems to be working just fine throughout all of this.

Frequentlyhere said:

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

Cant wait to revisit this in 4 years time.

GDB2222

darren232002 said:

Deleted_User said:

Hilarious. Enjoy being poor

Aww... Bless.

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

bugbyte_2 said:

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I'd answer this if I hadn't already set out extensively the exact reasons for my thesis many times over.

Frequentlyhere said:

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Frequentlyhere said:

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen 

To 3%. Inflation is at 8%. Deeply negative real rates.

And at that rate, the interest payment on US debt is their second largest expense; higher than the defence budget. Unsustainable.

Frequentlyhere said:

there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially)

Its 8%. Its gone from impossible, to an average of 2% over the decade, to a little hotter than usual (3%) to transitory. And now its gone from 8.1 to 7.9 or w/e and its great because its 'softening'? Absolute clown show of shifting goalposts every single time.

Frequentlyhere said:

There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

The last time I quoted you, I specifically asked for you 'stop spouting crazy ideas that I don't think will happen.'

I've stated very clearly what I think will happen in the long run; It doesn't involve fiat disappearing and it doesn't involve a disaster that brings about a new Bitcoin regime. Have you actually read my posts or are you, as I suspect, simply arguing against a trope you have invented in your own mind?

Frequentlyhere said:

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

You'e not exaggerating? Ok, so in this hypothetical 'implosion' and 'bonfire', what does it say that Bitcoin is down only 8% from where you last posted a graph a month ago? How about the fact that its still up nearly 2x on my cost basis, which I think I'm still safe in saying is better than anything else I could have bought at the time...

In any event, a centralised exchange imploding due to fraudulent and criminal acts is a great advert for why Bitcoin needs to exist. 

And again, defi seems to be working just fine throughout all of this.

Frequentlyhere said:

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

Cant wait to revisit this in 4 years time.

Can I just check one point with you, please. Your crypto investment is worth double what you paid? 

So, you could sell now, and make a very handsome profit.

Or, you could wait, and what will you do if it halves or doubles in price?  

Cus

darren232002 said:

Deleted_User said:

Hilarious. Enjoy being poor

Aww... Bless.

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

bugbyte_2 said:

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I'd answer this if I hadn't already set out extensively the exact reasons for my thesis many times over.

Frequentlyhere said:

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Frequentlyhere said:

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen 

To 3%. Inflation is at 8%. Deeply negative real rates.

And at that rate, the interest payment on US debt is their second largest expense; higher than the defence budget. Unsustainable.

Frequentlyhere said:

there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially)

Its 8%. Its gone from impossible, to an average of 2% over the decade, to a little hotter than usual (3%) to transitory. And now its gone from 8.1 to 7.9 or w/e and its great because its 'softening'? Absolute clown show of shifting goalposts every single time.

Frequentlyhere said:

There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

The last time I quoted you, I specifically asked for you 'stop spouting crazy ideas that I don't think will happen.'

I've stated very clearly what I think will happen in the long run; It doesn't involve fiat disappearing and it doesn't involve a disaster that brings about a new Bitcoin regime. Have you actually read my posts or are you, as I suspect, simply arguing against a trope you have invented in your own mind?

Frequentlyhere said:

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

You'e not exaggerating? Ok, so in this hypothetical 'implosion' and 'bonfire', what does it say that Bitcoin is down only 8% from where you last posted a graph a month ago? How about the fact that its still up nearly 2x on my cost basis, which I think I'm still safe in saying is better than anything else I could have bought at the time...

In any event, a centralised exchange imploding due to fraudulent and criminal acts is a great advert for why Bitcoin needs to exist. 

And again, defi seems to be working just fine throughout all of this.

Frequentlyhere said:

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

Cant wait to revisit this in 4 years time.

*Not baiting but have couple of q's for you as I like to hear reasoned intelligent opinion despite not agreeing to it..*

Has the recent events stopped you or hindered your ability to earn on your crypto positions?

Do you think this exchange fiasco is actually long term a good thing for bitcoin specifically as it cuts out the altcoin noise?

Are you slightly more worried now that maybe bitcoin etc might not get to where you expected/hoped in the future?

Thanks in advance. I have worked in investment banking for many years so I will not just put my 'its all tulips' hat on and not listen...

fourmarks

Frequentlyhere said:

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

Cant wait to revisit this in 4 years time.

By my calculations you may have to wait approximately 4 years.

User232002

Cus said:

*Not baiting but have couple of q's for you as I like to hear reasoned intelligent opinion despite not agreeing to it..*

Has the recent events stopped you or hindered your ability to earn on your crypto positions?

Yes. 

The majority of the yield on other crypto assets has largely remained, and indeed it was always going to. However, it was also obvious that once a BTC top had formed that altcoins were going to be decimated. There is no point earning 10% APR staking SOL, paid in SOL, whilst SOL goes from $200+ to its current price of $15 ish. BTC had a mini pump from around $37k to $45k ish in January / February - it was at this point that I sold every single altcoin I had (except USD stables) including projects that I think are 'good' and will survive. I was very tempted to sell the BTC & ETH too, but I don't like the idea of trying to time these markets so resolved to hold them regardless. 

The majority of the yield that was being paid on good assets (BTC / ETH) came from people wanting to borrow these assets to long / short and / or market make in a capital efficient way. As liquidity dried up and a top had clearly formed, these rates were always going to contract. At some point around May/June I removed assets like this from services like BlockFi as the yield being given no longer compensated for the counter party risk. 

Cus said:

Do you think this exchange fiasco is actually long term a good thing for bitcoin specifically as it cuts out the altcoin noise?

I'm not sure it will cut out the altcoin noise unfortunately. If it does, that would undoubtedly be a good thing.

Crypto.com's proof of reserves appears to show that 30% of the capital in it went to buying an imaginary coin named after a breed of dog with no security or roadmap. Unfortunately, people are stupid. There have been arguments on this thread (from people that would probably claim they were intelligent) stating that Dogecoin and Bitcoin are one and the same thing. Or, as its usually phrased, "there are 10000+ cryptocurrencies, so what 'scarcity' does Bitcoin offer?" Or the Myspace argument, which convinces people that don't know the history of digital currency development that there will be a better iteration than Bitcoin. Unit bias is a thing, and people want to buy 'the next Bitcoin' rather than realising that there is no next Bitcoin. Whilst Binance & Coinbase may not have been embezzling customer funds, they have both been guilty of putting utter s**t up for sale on their exchanges over the last few years.

I spent a lot of money on coins that did something towards the end of 2020. Defi tokens with revenues, projects with achievable and solid visions for utility. These tokens did well, but not nearly as well as those that had a good narrative, a solid meme or were shilled by influencers. I made money, but that was very much a learning experience about human nature. ADA does nothing and may very well be terminally broken, yet it went 30x this cycle and was the coin people in real life asked me the most about. The altcoins favoured by FTX were particularly abhorrent for 'investors.' Low float, high FDV - they were uninvestable even if you believed they were good projects.

There is definitely a need for education here. However, most people don't want to listen to monetary history, understand tokenomics or spend the time to understand why Bitcoin is different. Most people fall in to the 'all crypto is tulips,' or 'all crypto is the future,' mould, of which neither are correct. Perhaps Bitcoin needs to be quoted in satoshi's instead to encourage people's unit bias. The flip side is that most of the people in this industry that make money on such obvious rubbish end up converting their profits in to BTC / ETH anyway, so that capital does flow in to the majors in some way.

Cus said:

Are you slightly more worried now that maybe bitcoin etc might not get to where you expected/hoped in the future?

Not particularly.

If anything, it may have lengthened the time needed for it to happen. But equally, people forget far quicker than they like to admit. Russia invaded Ukraine in February and most people are bored of hearing about the war. Boris was the most hated man in the country in May and two weeks ago may very well have become prime minister again. 

I've said here before that the ultimate goal is a fairer financial system for all. QE and low interest rates have distorted asset prices and the cost of capital which has largely screwed (most of) my generation over. Bitcoins success will always be inversely proportional to central banks' failure. If central banks want to reduce their balance sheets to pre 2008 levels that would send Bitcoin to zero, but it would also nuke asset prices to more reasonable levels and mean people lengthened their time preference. I'm fine with either outcome, I just think that we've long gone past the point at which central banks can reverse course on this. Instead, the debt will be inflated away - punishing savers and those who had planned for the future in favour of those who took out mortgages at ridiculous valuations or saddled their businesses with unsustainable debt. Asset prices remain high and financial independence becomes further out of reach for the majority. Monetary policy for the last two decades has rewarded risk takers and not risk aversion.

So Bitcoin is still the more likely winner because I don't see how central banks can regain financial credibility in anything approaching a reasonable time scale. 

Frequentlyhere

We've been around this block before Darren, and I still don't see why your scenario of the Fed failing to cope with inflation leads to any success for Bitcoin.

I've already said that that are signs inflation has already peaked, but let's assume those are red herrings and high inflation is still going to persist.  The FED will have to continue to raise interest rates.  Stocks will crater again, bond yields will rise and Bitcoin & friends will fall further as well.

That would also probably mean a far more tangible worldwide recession, with high unemployment and general economic malaise, a chunk of people losing their homes too. That would then lead to demand destruction and a sharp reduction in inflation, at which point the higher interest rates will have done their job and the FED would pivot. The economy would recover, employment will rise and we begin a new cycle.  

Now maybe in that scenario Jerome Powell would get a slightly less favourable biography and some people will have a miserable few years as they did in 2008-2010 , but what I don't see is how this is of any use to the value of Bitcoin?

How does it "win" in this scenario? Or if my scenario is wrong, what does it look like?

(edited to reduce my long windedness a bit)