BITCOIN

DannyCarey

fourmarks said:

The BBC report is 35 minutes old. I got here as quick as I could.

The BBC are always last to the party, and we've been talking of the demise of FTX since Wednesday on here

bugbyte_2

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

GDB2222

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I thought that there's a limit on the number of BTC that can be mined. So, it's bound to increase in value?

OTOH 10,000 other crypto currencies have been created, and there seems to be no end in sight. 

fourmarks

DannyCarey said:

fourmarks said:

The BBC report is 35 minutes old. I got here as quick as I could.

The BBC are always last to the party, and we've been talking of the demise of FTX since Wednesday on here

Happily, I'd never heard of FTX until seeing the BBC report. Which coincided with seeing this BITCOIN thread in the 'index'.

Sorry to have missed the party, but I have no knowledge of, and no interest in things crypto. Just passing through.

Johnjdc

GDB2222 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I thought that there's a limit on the number of BTC that can be mined. So, it's bound to increase in value?

OTOH 10,000 other crypto currencies have been created, and there seems to be no end in sight. 

There's a limit on the number of times I will fart today. It doesn't mean they'd be "bound to increase in value" if I bottled them.

DannyCarey

That point, whilst mildly amusing, is full of hot air.

p00hsticks

GDB2222 said:

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I thought that there's a limit on the number of BTC that can be mined. So, it's bound to increase in value?

That assumes that more people want a thing than the number of those things available.

DannyCarey

So we've a guy talking about farts, then a poster called "P00hsticks" weighs in

Vintage MSE

Frequentlyhere

darren232002 said:

Nothings changed. Your governments are currently running interest rates that they can't sustain despite them being deeply negative real rates. Fiat world is still a clown show.

What if I told you there’s another financial firm creating an asset out of thin air & reinvesting it into a system of centralized intermediaries that use it as collateral for debt but instead of going bankrupt during contractions the US government bails them out w/ taxpayer funds?

Time to get your head down and convert fiat in to Bitcoin for the next two years whilst everyone thinks its dead, only to have everyone tell you you're 'lucky' in four years time...

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen and there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially). The housing market has softened, but employment is high.  There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

User232002

Deleted_User said:

Hilarious. Enjoy being poor

Aww... Bless.

bugbyte_2 said:

Hi Darren, from your post above are you saying we now have to discount everything you said before 11/10/2022?

You do realise that the entity that gave the price prediction that the quote was referring to of $140k, is now predicting a price for the immediate future of $13k right? It seems both I, and JPMorgan, are capable of changing opinions.

bugbyte_2 said:

Just out of interest why do you think Bitcoin is going to recover better than say Meta Platforms Inc. which dropped (and has now slightly recovered) 75% this year? Is your thinking that because BTC price was so 'high' previously it is bound to go that high again? 

I'd answer this if I hadn't already set out extensively the exact reasons for my thesis many times over.

Frequentlyhere said:

Wow, Darren, this is basically "The dollar is the real Ponzi scheme" stuff, scraping the barrel here.

Frequentlyhere said:

Back in the real World, interest rates have risen 

To 3%. Inflation is at 8%. Deeply negative real rates.

And at that rate, the interest payment on US debt is their second largest expense; higher than the defence budget. Unsustainable.

Frequentlyhere said:

there now appears to be some softening in inflation (potentially)

Its 8%. Its gone from impossible, to an average of 2% over the decade, to a little hotter than usual (3%) to transitory. And now its gone from 8.1 to 7.9 or w/e and its great because its 'softening'? Absolute clown show of shifting goalposts every single time.

Frequentlyhere said:

There's still even debate over whether to call this a global recession, never mind it being a total disaster that brings about a new bitcoin regime. In short, the World is coping just fine without BTC, thanks. Even if it wasn't, BTC still wouldn't be the answer.

The last time I quoted you, I specifically asked for you 'stop spouting crazy ideas that I don't think will happen.'

I've stated very clearly what I think will happen in the long run; It doesn't involve fiat disappearing and it doesn't involve a disaster that brings about a new Bitcoin regime. Have you actually read my posts or are you, as I suspect, simply arguing against a trope you have invented in your own mind?

Frequentlyhere said:

Meanwhile, the crypto-sphere is imploding before our eyes, which I think is fair to say is not an exaggeration. Any support that existed for Crypto (and yes, Bitcoin is crypto) from rational people, institutions and Government has effectively been shot down in flames in this episode. 

You'e not exaggerating? Ok, so in this hypothetical 'implosion' and 'bonfire', what does it say that Bitcoin is down only 8% from where you last posted a graph a month ago? How about the fact that its still up nearly 2x on my cost basis, which I think I'm still safe in saying is better than anything else I could have bought at the time...

In any event, a centralised exchange imploding due to fraudulent and criminal acts is a great advert for why Bitcoin needs to exist. 

And again, defi seems to be working just fine throughout all of this.

Frequentlyhere said:

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still *presently* down less than some fairly reputable growth stocks (though is an eye watering 73% down). I'd personally say given that and the ongoing binfire surrounding the space in every conceivable aspect, I've never seen a worse time to be invested in Bitcoin.

Cant wait to revisit this in 4 years time.