BITCOIN

DannyCarey

Frequentlyhere said:

DannyCarey said:

This activity is nothing new in the "crypto space" but it will wash out bad actors over time, more stringent licensing will come into play and eventually people will realise that all the froth is worthless, but Bitcoin the protocol is very very different from the rest. 

I agree with most of what you say, but once your licensing (I assume you mean regulation?) is in place, how does that square with the very aims that Bitcoin was designed for?  If it's just another regulated asset that can't be used outside of the strictures of Government control, then what's the point?

It can very much be used outside of government control. There are now decentralised exchanges popping up like bisq, where there is no KYC. Of course banks will probably end up blocking payments to there and the government will not like services like bisq, but once you acquire Bitcoin and it's transferred out to a wallet and another wallet, or on to someone else, it is very much out of the government's control. This is what it is designed for. The on and off ramps are the bit the governments are rightfully (or wrongly) aiming to get regulated along with exchanges having to actually have the reserves they claim, etc. 

History seems to repeat itself with these dodgy exchanges but I am sure in time it will have to be put right. 

Its well known that Gary Gensler who runs the SEC pretty much despises every other cryptocurrency that's not Bitcoin. 

DannyCarey

Frequentlyhere said:

hallmark said:

$15,737 currently.  You have to think there's an awful lot of leveraged positions / companies that won't be able to stand this level of falls very long.

This is it isn't it? With any normal good investment, you'd at least think/hope that lower prices now beget higher prices later as things recover. 

There's no such assurances with this guff. Lower prices make things even more precarious because as you say there's so much leverage and (frankly) fraud/shenanigans going on. If FTX can explode overnight, anything can.

Will it be a margin call on Saylor next?  Will it be Tether deciding the jig is up and vanishing into the ether? Perhaps some other shadowy firm no-one's even heard of will suddenly explode? Coinbase? Maybe the regulators will choose now as the time to pounce on Binance? Politicians meanwhile in general will now side against crypto which could be devastating to any idea of institutional adoption.

Then there's the ongoing background sell pressures. Miners need a steady flow of cash to pay their bills. There are also now several large stashes of Bitcoin (one found just last week with the arrest of that guy hiding it in a chocolate tin) that need to be sold into the market at some point.

This is an important  point. Crashes have cascading pressure on miners, especially those who are mining with expensive electricity costs. This is why miners are attracted to stranded assets, where the energy is near free and/or they get in partnerships with the energy infrastructure like how they operate in Texas where they can turn on and off as desired.
It encourages miners to seek out the cheapest and most efficient means of energy possible. 

Could be more downside to come, I am waiting for it to crash a little bit more to accumulate again. 

Johnjdc

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

DannyCarey

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

mooneysaver

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Tulips increased 10,000% in 12 years...

Its sort of why they mentioned them.

DannyCarey

mooneysaver said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Tulips increased 10,000% in 12 years...

Its sort of why they mentioned them.

Nonsense

https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland

Johnjdc

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

DannyCarey

Johnjdc said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

3-5 years is significantly less time than 13 years. 
Also once those things burst, they didn't come back again, did they?

Bitcoin has risen dramatically and crashed dramatically many times, but would you bet against it rising dramatically again? If you are so confident of it having no value, would you consider shorting it? 

The key thing is more and more people are joining the network every day and the block height continues to grow every ten minutes.. 

hallmark

My 2p fwiw:  Bitcoin is 100% a side-effect of insanely loose monetary policy.  Low IRs but far more importantly the endless QE.  IMO it's why the price has been hammered:  Because of even the suggestion of tighter monetary policy, followed by the increases in IRs and the beginnings of QT.

If I'm correct then it certainly might go up again, as I would say the chances that central banks won't turn the taps on again at some point are zero.  Currently though, mainly because of what I understand is crazy levels of leveraging in the Crypto world (that would not be allowed in other investment classes) I think there is no limit to how low it could fall.

I'm very much on the Buffet/Munger side of the fence overall (who I believe view it as worthless/immoral).   But I thought that when it was worth almost nothing, and lots of the people who disagreed cleaned up so what I do know.

Johnjdc

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

3-5 years is significantly less time than 13 years. 
Also once those things burst, they didn't come back again, did they?

Bitcoin has risen dramatically and crashed dramatically many times, but would you bet against it rising dramatically again? If you are so confident of it having no value, would you consider shorting it? 

The key thing is more and more people are joining the network every day and the block height continues to grow every ten minutes.. 

I wouldn't short them because a) the downside is unlimited - "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent), b) it's a rigged market, and c) there's a high chance the exchange I short them on turns out to be dependent on crypto leverage so if I "win" they don't have the funds to pay my profit.

Sometimes bubbles recur, yes. Plenty of scammy shares have gone down lots, then back up even more, then down lots, then back up to a wild peak, then to 0. Wirecard would be a recent example.

More and more people are not getting into crypto though. Retail money has gone home, rigs are shutting down, and the whole thing is being propped up by printed stablecoins, ironically the thing crypto was originally a rebellion against in fiat banking.