BITCOIN

DannyCarey

mooneysaver said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Tulips increased 10,000% in 12 years...

Its sort of why they mentioned them.

Nonsense

https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland

Johnjdc

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

DannyCarey

Johnjdc said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

3-5 years is significantly less time than 13 years. 
Also once those things burst, they didn't come back again, did they?

Bitcoin has risen dramatically and crashed dramatically many times, but would you bet against it rising dramatically again? If you are so confident of it having no value, would you consider shorting it? 

The key thing is more and more people are joining the network every day and the block height continues to grow every ten minutes.. 

hallmark

My 2p fwiw:  Bitcoin is 100% a side-effect of insanely loose monetary policy.  Low IRs but far more importantly the endless QE.  IMO it's why the price has been hammered:  Because of even the suggestion of tighter monetary policy, followed by the increases in IRs and the beginnings of QT.

If I'm correct then it certainly might go up again, as I would say the chances that central banks won't turn the taps on again at some point are zero.  Currently though, mainly because of what I understand is crazy levels of leveraging in the Crypto world (that would not be allowed in other investment classes) I think there is no limit to how low it could fall.

I'm very much on the Buffet/Munger side of the fence overall (who I believe view it as worthless/immoral).   But I thought that when it was worth almost nothing, and lots of the people who disagreed cleaned up so what I do know.

Johnjdc

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

DannyCarey said:

Johnjdc said:

Millyonare said:

Always amazed that so many people piled into peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrencies. The earlier P2P loan industry had already been a train wreck for years before. The warning signs were there for a long time before Bitcoin and others!

These are completely different things. They're both nonsense (crypto much more so) but the P2P of crypto is more like the P2P of early illegal mp3 sharing than the P2P of Lendy.

Bitcoin is more like Pogs, beanie babies, or tulip bulbs, so the P2P in that could also be compared to, say, eBay.

Have any of those things you mentioned increased in value by 6,737.37% over a 13 year period? 

Yes. That's why I mentioned them, they are examples of historic price bubbles based on mass delusions around assets with very little intrinsic value.

Tulip bulbs increased by 6,000% in a 3 year period (1634-1637).

Beanie Babies rose 600% in a 5 year period which compounded to 13 years would be 10,500%

The POG bubble was captured by the distributor increasing volume rather than a huge price run-up, so it bears more resemblance to a stablecoin such as Terra, Tron-USDD, or IRON, with the same end result.

3-5 years is significantly less time than 13 years. 
Also once those things burst, they didn't come back again, did they?

Bitcoin has risen dramatically and crashed dramatically many times, but would you bet against it rising dramatically again? If you are so confident of it having no value, would you consider shorting it? 

The key thing is more and more people are joining the network every day and the block height continues to grow every ten minutes.. 

I wouldn't short them because a) the downside is unlimited - "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent), b) it's a rigged market, and c) there's a high chance the exchange I short them on turns out to be dependent on crypto leverage so if I "win" they don't have the funds to pay my profit.

Sometimes bubbles recur, yes. Plenty of scammy shares have gone down lots, then back up even more, then down lots, then back up to a wild peak, then to 0. Wirecard would be a recent example.

More and more people are not getting into crypto though. Retail money has gone home, rigs are shutting down, and the whole thing is being propped up by printed stablecoins, ironically the thing crypto was originally a rebellion against in fiat banking.

Exodi

hallmark said:

I'm very much on the Buffet/Munger side of the fence overall (who I believe view it as worthless/immoral).   But I thought that when it was worth almost nothing, and lots of the people who disagreed cleaned up so what I do know.

Agree however I view it a bit differently.

If someone was to go to a casino and put their life savings on one number on a roulette wheel, while I might have encouraged them that it's not a good idea, if they were to win it becomes difficult to suggest they made a mistake - it remains a bad decision that resulted in a good outcome.

People that invested more than 2 years ago are probably laughing all the way to the bank (assuming they actually sold), people that invested within the last 2 years are probably crying themselves to sleep.

Like you, I hold similar views to that of Buffet/Munger. And this is from someone that has bought and held BTC & ETH and sold both for a decent profit - I never believed it was the next 'global currency' and it wouldn't suprise me if a significant amount of bitcoin holders have no interest in the fundamentals of bitcoin.

User232002

Hexane said:

Zola. said:

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1430937931993202706

Its probably nothing

It wasn't quite nothing, but it did see huge losses.

There's definitely a certain irony in someone quoting this post and pointing to 'losses.'

Hexane said:

darren232002 said:

Remembered why I stopped posting here. 

But do you remember why Scott stopped posting here? He and you were the "big brains", right? 

Nothings changed. Your governments are currently running interest rates that they can't sustain despite them being deeply negative real rates. Fiat world is still a clown show.

What if I told you there’s another financial firm creating an asset out of thin air & reinvesting it into a system of centralized intermediaries that use it as collateral for debt but instead of going bankrupt during contractions the US government bails them out w/ taxpayer funds?

Hexane said:

darren232002 said:

Look around, its not conspiracy theorists and rednecks buying Bitcoin, its rocket scientists, CEO's, institutions and computer programmers/STEM graduates. These guys know the way the world is going. JP Morgan in 2017 said BTC is a ponzi, in 2021 they are advising their clients to put a % of their portfolio in it and predicting prices in the $140k range. Citigroup threw out a $300k+ price prediction.

Lest we forget.

How about instead of dredging up quotes from a year ago when the world was a very different place, we look at what I posted a month ago;

darren232002 said:

That's your bottom buying opportunity. $15k. Maybe $10k.

Time to get your head down and convert fiat in to Bitcoin for the next two years whilst everyone thinks its dead, only to have everyone tell you you're 'lucky' in four years time...

fourmarks

BBC NEWS.

Embattled cryptocurrency exchange FTX has filed for bankruptcy in the US, seeking court protection as it looks for a way to return money to users.

The company said that former boss Sam Bankman-Fried had also stepped down as chief executive.

It said the goal was to "begin an orderly process to review and monetize assets for the benefit of all global stakeholders".

The moves cap a week of huge turmoil for the company.

Earlier this week, customers rushed to withdraw their funds as rumours swirled that FTX and other firms headed by Mr Bankman-Fried were on shaky financial ground.

Ouch.

DannyCarey

Old news now pal

SBF going to jail!

fourmarks

The BBC report is 35 minutes old. I got here as quick as I could.