BITCOIN

Exodi

barnstar2077 said:

Exodi said:

barnstar2077 said:

Aegis said:

homeless9 said:

I have been in crypto since 2017. It is a godsend. There is no other way to make this type of profit for the average person. Everyone should have at least 10% of their savings in Crypto. Yes, you can easily lose a lot of money. People have even made millions of $ on paper to see it all disappear because they got too greedy. Some people buy tokens that have already gone up a lot in a short space of time to see their money quickly disappear. If you understand the market and use some common sense you should be making a lot of money during a bull market.

Crypto goes up a lot over 6 to 12 months and then collapses for approx 3 years. My feeling is it will go back up in late 2024.

OK, so using your common sense or whatever other metric you feel is appropriate, where do you see, say, bitcoin if it is traded at a fair value?  How do you come to that conclusion?

How do you value something that has no intrinsic value?  The only thing bitcoin adds to the world is pollution.

Wooshhhhhh 

I have a feeling Aegis, a chartered financial planner, is aware that magic-made-up-internet-bucks have no intrisic value. I'd expect that's the point he was making to homeless9.

But you're both wrong - coz line go up which mean more money

Woosh, I was agreeing with Aegis, kablam!!

I just got checkmated in this game of 4d chess!

  

User232002

Exodi said:

darren232002 said:
Haha. Nobody is going to sell you a Bitcoin for $41k in the current environment. Good chance we never go below $45k again actually.

darren232002 said:

if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:

moneywow1 said:

Can't wait for the big crash.

200%+ CAGR for over a decade and you're still saying this. At this point its not based on rational thought, its simply a psychological bias. FYI I bought and sold Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014. The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

darren232002 said:
Tesla, Microstrategy, Massmutual, Square et al have bought billions of $ of BTC. Chances are Elon probably has a better idea of managing money than you do. Chances are that he consulted with several people before that purchase; people who all also probably have a better chance of managing money than you do.

Oof, this didn't age well.

Did you sell everything you have out of interest? The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

Sold nothing. Bought more and will continue to do so. What new information? The thesis is literally playing out right in front of your eyes...

Fed finally got to 3% and economy looks like it wants to puke. Approximately half of their $31T debt matures within 2 years, so if they keep rates there for 6 months that's an extra few hundred billion $ per year in debt payments by the govt, or about 10% of their tax revenue. Do you think the US, or any, government can afford to lose 10% of their revenue due to interest payments? The EU, UK and JP are even worse off than the US due to demographics and resource constraints. The UK just undid a years worth of QT by stepping in to bail out the pension funds (something else I've mentioned several times btw - Pension funds are an absolute mess and are the next govt bailout waiting to happen).

When push comes to shove, the printer will always be turned on. This all ends up one way, with YCC and fiat currencies being printed to cover obligations. Bitcoin is sitting very pretty.

Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. Just posting that so that nobody comes out with some ridiculous statement like 'claims he bought Bitcoin at an opportune time' in a few years time.

Frequentlyhere

I agree that it looks like there's a global pension fund issue and in large part that's due to increasing global bond market pressures, which may or may not ultimately force the FED's hand in easing off the interest rate rises. That may mean we see ongoing inflation at a higher rate than they'd like.

Where we depart is the 'wavy hand magic' bit where assuming we end up in this potential problematic situation all of us go:

"Yeah, you know what the solution is? Unregulated internet magic tokens!  I mean they have such a great record in staying stable in value, and hardly ever get stolen. Plus even Grandma knows how to safely secure her easy to recall 124 digit passphrase using advanced cryptography and a cold storage unit for security".

So we all just hoover up bitcoin and give up carrying our £'s round in wheelbarrows to buy bread. Meanwhile, the Fed and all monetary authorities around the World just sit back shaking their heads in awe at the raw power of the Bitcoin revolution, totally powerless just to, say, make crypto illegal / ban exchanges / do many other things that countries have done already to clamp down on it when they choose to. 

Eventually, with all public services in tatters, Michael Saylor benevolently issues every citizen of the World 5 sats each. Enough by that point to buy a scrap of land, a cow and a chicken. Statues are built in his honour and we're all gloriously happy, safe in the knowledge that we managed to avoid the horrendous fate of mildly high inflation for a while.

[Deleted User]

darren232002 said:
if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:
Sold nothing. [...] Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. 

Speaks for itself I think.

HODL'ing bitcoin even when his "beliefs are invalidated" and price has fallen below publicly pre-announced stop-loss.

User232002

Frequentlyhere said:

I agree that it looks like there's a global pension fund issue and in large part that's due to increasing global bond market pressures, which may or may not ultimately force the FED's hand in easing off the interest rate rises. That may mean we see ongoing inflation at a higher rate than they'd like.

Where we depart is the 'wavy hand magic' bit where assuming we end up in this potential problematic situation all of us go:

"Yeah, you know what the solution is? Unregulated internet magic tokens!  I mean they have such a great record in staying stable in value, and hardly ever get stolen. Plus even Grandma knows how to safely secure her easy to recall 124 digit passphrase using advanced cryptography and a cold storage unit for security".

So we all just hoover up bitcoin and give up carrying our £'s round in wheelbarrows to buy bread. Meanwhile, the Fed and all monetary authorities around the World just sit back shaking their heads in awe at the raw power of the Bitcoin revolution, totally powerless just to, say, make crypto illegal / ban exchanges / do many other things that countries have done already to clamp down on it when they choose to. 

Eventually, with all public services in tatters, Michael Saylor benevolently issues every citizen of the World 5 sats each. Enough by that point to buy a scrap of land, a cow and a chicken. Statues are built in his honour and we're all gloriously happy, safe in the knowledge that we managed to avoid the horrendous fate of mildly high inflation for a while.

I've posted exactly what I think will happen in the long run, so I have no idea why you are spouting crazy ideas that I clearly don't think will happen. Just factually wrong in many ways too, 124 digit passphrase etc, but I'm sure you think you are being clever by doing that.

Bitcoin use goes up in countries with mismanaged currencies. Its a problem the developing world has dealt with for decades. Same will happen when people in the developed world start to experience currency failures.

Deleted_User said:

darren232002 said:
if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:
Sold nothing. [...] Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. 

Speaks for itself I think.

HODL'ing bitcoin even when his "beliefs are invalidated" and price has fallen below publicly pre-announced stop-loss.

Speaks for what? Is your assertion that I am somehow not to be trusted because I said I would sell a year ago and *gasp* changed my mind? If I sell, you claim 'see, even the biggest supporter on this forum has lost faith, I knew it was a scam!' If I don't sell, you claim 'OMG, he said he'd sell if it went < $20k and he didn't, I knew it was all a scam!' Its all a bit tiresome.

Still up substantially more than the S&P and any other market over the same period of my investment. 

Remembered why I stopped posting here. 

DannyCarey

darren232002 - if we all thought the same the world would be a dull place. I also tend to agree with you that there is clearly a place for Bitcoin to become even more important as the years roll on and the financial wheels continue to fall off everywhere...

Frequentlyhere

You say:  "Bitcoin use goes up...Same will happen when people in the developed world start to experience currency failures"

What exactly do you mean by that?  Are you expecting the total collapse of Sterling/ Yen/ $ / Euro? Regardless, I still don't see how this prophecy comes true looking at what's going in the world right now.

Turkey has 100% inflation right now, and I just happen to be in a Turkish Lira country. I can tell you they've not as of yet reverted to Bitcoin.

El Salvador went as far as formally adopting it, but usage is practically zero.

Ukraine is a warzone. Yes they accept BTC for donations, but they aren't typically hoarding/spending it.

Lebanon is in economic ruin, and they aren't switching to bitcoin in huge numbers either.

I accept that there's probably been a small uptick in BTC purchasing in these countries because of their horrendous circumstances, but I hope you'd agree that use is still nowhere near widespread.

So if super-high inflation, land wars, forced adoption and economic ruin isn't enough for these small countries to turn to bitcoin in any meaningful way, why do you believe it suddenly would happen if a major country god forbid had a similar crisis?

Also, out of interest, is there now a new "invalidates your thesis" level below $20k as you've changed your mind? Or is the $ value just no longer relevant?

Malthusian

darren232002 said:

Speaks for what? Is your assertion that I am somehow not to be trusted because I said I would sell a year ago and *gasp* changed my mind?

Except you haven't changed your mind. You've clung on to your idea that your Bitcoins will go to the moon even after specifically naming a potential future event that would cause you to change your mind, which then happened.

 If I sell, you claim 'see, even the biggest supporter on this forum has lost faith, I knew it was a scam!' If I don't sell, you claim 'OMG, he said he'd sell if it went < $20k and he didn't, I knew it was all a scam!' Its all a bit tiresome.

If you said "I accept that my beliefs are invalidated, I was wrong to think that Bitcoin would get me rich quick, I've cut my losses and put the rest in Vanguard LifeStrategy", people on this forum would genuinely applaud. Clearly wasn't ever going to happen but there we are.
This isn't Reddit; the MSE forum isn't a widdling-contest over who's making the most money.
If I'm running a study on whether a pill I've invented cures piles, and I say before the results come in "At least 50% more people who take the pill must see their piles disappear in a week compared to the control group to prove my hypothesis that it works", and it doesn't happen, the correct response is to accept my pill doesn't work and go back to the drawing board.
Not "Well if I accept the pill doesn't work you'll say I'm rubbish at inventing drugs, and if I say it does work you'll say I'm a charlatan, therefore I can't win, and I might as well re-run the study until I get a different result". This is what "invalidation" means in the real world. 
It's supposed to feel tiresome to propose bets and then welsh on them. There wouldn't be any point in proposing them if there were no consequences.
Nobody on this forum has claimed that whether Bitcoin is a scam or not depends on whether it dumped below $19k.

[Deleted User]

Bitcoin's structural limits mean it can never become the world's digital currency solution. Hundreds of kwhr of energy PER TRANSACTION?!? Max 7 transactions a second GLOBALLY?!? 

We may get a few more price bounces but Bitcoin is now a joke and it will eventually go away (as it should) to hopefully be replaced in due course with a system that's actualy functional in real world scenarios.

Remember Altavista? The "first google" (before Google). It was also the first of its kind, like Bitcoin, and for a few years it was the "go to" site in search. Not worth very much today however.

Frequentlyhere

Uh oh, a high US CPI inflation print. The global reserve currency is collapsing, good thing I have my Bit-

Oh no.