BITCOIN

DannyCarey

darren232002 - if we all thought the same the world would be a dull place. I also tend to agree with you that there is clearly a place for Bitcoin to become even more important as the years roll on and the financial wheels continue to fall off everywhere...

Frequentlyhere

You say:  "Bitcoin use goes up...Same will happen when people in the developed world start to experience currency failures"

What exactly do you mean by that?  Are you expecting the total collapse of Sterling/ Yen/ $ / Euro? Regardless, I still don't see how this prophecy comes true looking at what's going in the world right now.

Turkey has 100% inflation right now, and I just happen to be in a Turkish Lira country. I can tell you they've not as of yet reverted to Bitcoin.

El Salvador went as far as formally adopting it, but usage is practically zero.

Ukraine is a warzone. Yes they accept BTC for donations, but they aren't typically hoarding/spending it.

Lebanon is in economic ruin, and they aren't switching to bitcoin in huge numbers either.

I accept that there's probably been a small uptick in BTC purchasing in these countries because of their horrendous circumstances, but I hope you'd agree that use is still nowhere near widespread.

So if super-high inflation, land wars, forced adoption and economic ruin isn't enough for these small countries to turn to bitcoin in any meaningful way, why do you believe it suddenly would happen if a major country god forbid had a similar crisis?

Also, out of interest, is there now a new "invalidates your thesis" level below $20k as you've changed your mind? Or is the $ value just no longer relevant?

Malthusian

darren232002 said:

Speaks for what? Is your assertion that I am somehow not to be trusted because I said I would sell a year ago and *gasp* changed my mind?

Except you haven't changed your mind. You've clung on to your idea that your Bitcoins will go to the moon even after specifically naming a potential future event that would cause you to change your mind, which then happened.

 If I sell, you claim 'see, even the biggest supporter on this forum has lost faith, I knew it was a scam!' If I don't sell, you claim 'OMG, he said he'd sell if it went < $20k and he didn't, I knew it was all a scam!' Its all a bit tiresome.

If you said "I accept that my beliefs are invalidated, I was wrong to think that Bitcoin would get me rich quick, I've cut my losses and put the rest in Vanguard LifeStrategy", people on this forum would genuinely applaud. Clearly wasn't ever going to happen but there we are.
This isn't Reddit; the MSE forum isn't a widdling-contest over who's making the most money.
If I'm running a study on whether a pill I've invented cures piles, and I say before the results come in "At least 50% more people who take the pill must see their piles disappear in a week compared to the control group to prove my hypothesis that it works", and it doesn't happen, the correct response is to accept my pill doesn't work and go back to the drawing board.
Not "Well if I accept the pill doesn't work you'll say I'm rubbish at inventing drugs, and if I say it does work you'll say I'm a charlatan, therefore I can't win, and I might as well re-run the study until I get a different result". This is what "invalidation" means in the real world. 
It's supposed to feel tiresome to propose bets and then welsh on them. There wouldn't be any point in proposing them if there were no consequences.
Nobody on this forum has claimed that whether Bitcoin is a scam or not depends on whether it dumped below $19k.

[Deleted User]

Bitcoin's structural limits mean it can never become the world's digital currency solution. Hundreds of kwhr of energy PER TRANSACTION?!? Max 7 transactions a second GLOBALLY?!? 

We may get a few more price bounces but Bitcoin is now a joke and it will eventually go away (as it should) to hopefully be replaced in due course with a system that's actualy functional in real world scenarios.

Remember Altavista? The "first google" (before Google). It was also the first of its kind, like Bitcoin, and for a few years it was the "go to" site in search. Not worth very much today however.

Frequentlyhere

Uh oh, a high US CPI inflation print. The global reserve currency is collapsing, good thing I have my Bit-

Oh no.

DannyCarey

Deleted_User said:

Bitcoin's structural limits mean it can never become the world's digital currency solution. Hundreds of kwhr of energy PER TRANSACTION?!? Max 7 transactions a second GLOBALLY?!? 

We may get a few more price bounces but Bitcoin is now a joke and it will eventually go away (as it should) to hopefully be replaced in due course with a system that's actualy functional in real world scenarios.

Remember Altavista? The "first google" (before Google). It was also the first of its kind, like Bitcoin, and for a few years it was the "go to" site in search. Not worth very much today however.

Incredibly inaccurate post here.

DannyCarey

Frequentlyhere said:

Uh oh, a high US CPI inflation print. The global reserve currency is collapsing, good thing I have my Bit-

Oh no.

Nice selective timing you have there ser, very impartial. 

hallmark

It's noticeable that BTC has repeatedly dropped to 18.5k in the last 2-3 months and every time found decent support and rallied. It looks a little unnatural to me and I wonder if there are leveraged holders / institutions out there who are facing wipeout if crypto drops below a certain level and desperately buy to shore up the price whenever that seems likely. On the grounds that if they'll get wiped out anyway they don't have much to lose.

This is total ill-informed speculation on my part but we know that the crypto world tends to be insanely leveraged and it does seem a little strange that it would keep finding support at that level.

It was well-publicized that Microstrategy would be facing calls if BTC went below $21k and stayed there (which it has obviously) and it's fair to wonder how many others are in that same situation.

DannyCarey

hallmark said:

It's noticeable that BTC has repeatedly dropped to 18.5k in the last 2-3 months and every time found decent support and rallied. It looks a little unnatural to me and I wonder if there are leveraged holders / institutions out there who are facing wipeout if crypto drops below a certain level and desperately buy to shore up the price whenever that seems likely. On the grounds that if they'll get wiped out anyway they don't much to lose.

This is total ill-informed speculation on my part but we know that the crypto world tends to be insanely leveraged and it does seem a little strange that it would keep finding support at that level.

It was well-publicized that Microstrategy would be facing calls if BTC went below $21k and stayed there (which it has obviously) and it's fair to wonder how many others are in that same situation.

There may be something to that, who knows. 

The total addresses of people holding 0.1 bitcoin or more continues to go up every day and is well past all time highs, so I do think there are a lot of small time retail buyers buying whilst the price has taken quite a dip down (along with pretty much everything else you can put money into, except property...).

DannyCarey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIuMdj_FE_E