BITCOIN

Parking_Eyerate

darren232002 said:

JPY, EUR and now GBP decimated. Confidence in any fiat currency other than the dollar has plummeted. Fed finally got to 3% and the global economy is on the precipice of falling in to the abyss. Bitcoin thesis going according to plan.

When everything tanks, BTC will too though. That's your bottom buying opportunity. $15k. Maybe $10k.

The above is an interesting counterpoint to:

darren232002 said:

Malthusian said:

Not that scarce. It's an asset that is going to lambo moon and go to $100,000 at some point in the near future and maybe $1 million beyond that. Yet millions of bros will happily sell you one for $41,000. That's not what scarce means.

Haha. Nobody is going to sell you a Bitcoin for $41k in the current environment. Good chance we never go below $45k again actually.

IvanOpinion said:

I also think that central banks will eventually come out with one or more 'sanctioned' national/international cryptocurrencies at some point and that will see the demise of many that currently seem to be in favour ..... but as I said I don't really understand them.

Maybe when it falls back below £10K again I might dip my toe in the water and have a flutter.

CBDCs are terrible and simply evidence that the central banks have a complete misunderstanding of whats happening. They don't solve any of the issues that BTC does because they can still 'print' more of their digital money at zero cost, just like they can with fiat currency. Plus, lets factor in the inevitable problems with state issued programmable money... Stimulus in the future is that you get £2k in your bank account but if it isnt spent by X date then it evaporates. Perhaps they issue stimulus only to people that have < Y value in their wallet. Or maybe they just go the whole hog and if they don't like you and/or your ideas your CBDC wallet is simply wiped out to zero or are no longer acceptable by merchants.

I think there is approximately zero chance that Bitcoin goes below $10k ever again. In fact, if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have (at a healthy profit still btw).

moneywow1 said:

Can't wait for the big crash.

200%+ CAGR for over a decade and you're still saying this. At this point its not based on rational thought, its simply a psychological bias. FYI I bought and sold Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014. The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

benbay001 said:

Further edit: Did you know the US banned gold as an investment glass from the 1930s until the 1970s? And the result was that the price halved, adjusted for inflation.

Give me one reason why the same couldnt happen to BTC?

Because game theory means it will hurt them more than it would ever help them.

Firstly, its owned by millions of their citizens and several US companies have billions of it on their balance sheets. You think attempting to wipe that value to zero is just going to be accepted by those people/companies? Do you think this is a logical action for a government that has overwhelmingly chosen to preserve value in business for the last two decades? Do you think it is a logical decision for a government that has moved towards recognising and legislating around this space in the last decade?

Secondly, logistics - you can't ban it unless you turn off the internet. You can ban yourself from the network, but that's going to make the country significantly poorer.

Thirdly, if you try to target fiat on and off ramps - I can walk across a border with my entire net worth in my head. If a country bans Bitcoin, people will move abroad to my favourable places (I actually no longer live in the UK anyway for much the same reason; I'm paid far more and have a better quality of life abroad and think the UK is doomed over a long time frame). This matters because the people that own Bitcoin tend to be STEM educated, so its a brain drain of the highest order.

Fourthly, look at the people appointed by the BIden administration - mainly pro Bitcoin with extensive history in the space (Gensler and Pierce come to mind to start with). Fifthly, if we look through history, every country that has tried to ban bitcoin has seen a premium for it, increased demand and has pretty much given up attempting to limit is use (most recently, Turkey went from attempting to ban it to legislating around it).

Bitcoin is lindy. The longer it exists, the longer it is likely to exist. Believing Bitcoin can be banned just shows an overestimation of the power and competence of governments and an underestimation of the technical difficulty of actually doing so.

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin is not a company, does not produce anything or pay dividends, you can't use it in industry or make anything from it like you can with gold,

Only a fraction of the value of gold derives from its actual use cases. The majority of its value is its monetary premium. Bitcoin does pretty much everything that gold does, but it does it far better so in time that monetary premium accrues to Bitcoin and not gold.

The hilarious thing is this entire thread is about Bitcoin and how people still can't wrap their heads around it, but most people in the space are way more interested and see far more potential in other crypto assets. I often think that crypto will separate those that can think and reason abstractly or from first principles from those that can not. 

HansOndabush said:

The only way that Scottex99 can profit is by the fact that some greater fool is willing to pay a higher price for the Bitcoin tokens that he bought at a lower price. i.e. the latecomers to the party are paying the profits of the early arrivers; is that not the nature of a ponzi scheme?

As I've stated before, we don't need MSE'rs to buy our bags. Its a $1T asset, so whatever people from this forum throw at it is not going to move it in any meaningful way. Tesla, Microstrategy, Massmutual, Square et al have bought billions of $ of BTC. Chances are Elon probably has a better idea of managing money than you do. Chances are that he consulted with several people before that purchase; people who all also probably have a better chance of managing money than you do.

At this point, institutions are buying for their own treasuries as well as financial institutions advising high net worth clients to put 1-5% of their portfolio in to BTC. A Bitcoin ETF is probably a certainty at some point this year which will further improve liquidity. As it continues to go up, larger funds will become more involved (some funds have strict limits on the minimum size of the asset they can invest in). 4 years ago, being pro-BTC was a career risk (see JPMorgan CEO threatening to sack anyone he caught buying it) but now there is a pretty good argument that a fiduciary would not be doing their job correctly if they ignore an asset that has 200% CAGR over the last decade with the best Sharpe ratio of any asset over that same timeframe.  JPMorgan now has a $145k price target for Bitcoin btw.

barnstar2077

Aegis said:

homeless9 said:

I have been in crypto since 2017. It is a godsend. There is no other way to make this type of profit for the average person. Everyone should have at least 10% of their savings in Crypto. Yes, you can easily lose a lot of money. People have even made millions of $ on paper to see it all disappear because they got too greedy. Some people buy tokens that have already gone up a lot in a short space of time to see their money quickly disappear. If you understand the market and use some common sense you should be making a lot of money during a bull market.

Crypto goes up a lot over 6 to 12 months and then collapses for approx 3 years. My feeling is it will go back up in late 2024.

OK, so using your common sense or whatever other metric you feel is appropriate, where do you see, say, bitcoin if it is traded at a fair value?  How do you come to that conclusion?

How do you value something that has no intrinsic value?  The only thing bitcoin adds to the world is pollution.

Exodi

barnstar2077 said:

Aegis said:

homeless9 said:

I have been in crypto since 2017. It is a godsend. There is no other way to make this type of profit for the average person. Everyone should have at least 10% of their savings in Crypto. Yes, you can easily lose a lot of money. People have even made millions of $ on paper to see it all disappear because they got too greedy. Some people buy tokens that have already gone up a lot in a short space of time to see their money quickly disappear. If you understand the market and use some common sense you should be making a lot of money during a bull market.

Crypto goes up a lot over 6 to 12 months and then collapses for approx 3 years. My feeling is it will go back up in late 2024.

OK, so using your common sense or whatever other metric you feel is appropriate, where do you see, say, bitcoin if it is traded at a fair value?  How do you come to that conclusion?

How do you value something that has no intrinsic value?  The only thing bitcoin adds to the world is pollution.

Wooshhhhhh 

I have a feeling Aegis, a chartered financial planner, is aware that magic-made-up-internet-bucks have no intrisic value. I'd expect that's the point he was making to homeless9.

But you're both wrong - coz line go up which mean more money

barnstar2077

Exodi said:

barnstar2077 said:

Aegis said:

homeless9 said:

I have been in crypto since 2017. It is a godsend. There is no other way to make this type of profit for the average person. Everyone should have at least 10% of their savings in Crypto. Yes, you can easily lose a lot of money. People have even made millions of $ on paper to see it all disappear because they got too greedy. Some people buy tokens that have already gone up a lot in a short space of time to see their money quickly disappear. If you understand the market and use some common sense you should be making a lot of money during a bull market.

Crypto goes up a lot over 6 to 12 months and then collapses for approx 3 years. My feeling is it will go back up in late 2024.

OK, so using your common sense or whatever other metric you feel is appropriate, where do you see, say, bitcoin if it is traded at a fair value?  How do you come to that conclusion?

How do you value something that has no intrinsic value?  The only thing bitcoin adds to the world is pollution.

Wooshhhhhh 

I have a feeling Aegis, a chartered financial planner, is aware that magic-made-up-internet-bucks have no intrisic value. I'd expect that's the point he was making to homeless9.

But you're both wrong - coz line go up which mean more money

Woosh, I was agreeing with Aegis, kablam!!

Exodi

darren232002 said:
Haha. Nobody is going to sell you a Bitcoin for $41k in the current environment. Good chance we never go below $45k again actually.

darren232002 said:

if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:

moneywow1 said:

Can't wait for the big crash.

200%+ CAGR for over a decade and you're still saying this. At this point its not based on rational thought, its simply a psychological bias. FYI I bought and sold Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014. The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

darren232002 said:
Tesla, Microstrategy, Massmutual, Square et al have bought billions of $ of BTC. Chances are Elon probably has a better idea of managing money than you do. Chances are that he consulted with several people before that purchase; people who all also probably have a better chance of managing money than you do.

Oof, this didn't age well.

Did you sell everything you have out of interest? The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

Exodi

barnstar2077 said:

Exodi said:

barnstar2077 said:

Aegis said:

homeless9 said:

I have been in crypto since 2017. It is a godsend. There is no other way to make this type of profit for the average person. Everyone should have at least 10% of their savings in Crypto. Yes, you can easily lose a lot of money. People have even made millions of $ on paper to see it all disappear because they got too greedy. Some people buy tokens that have already gone up a lot in a short space of time to see their money quickly disappear. If you understand the market and use some common sense you should be making a lot of money during a bull market.

Crypto goes up a lot over 6 to 12 months and then collapses for approx 3 years. My feeling is it will go back up in late 2024.

OK, so using your common sense or whatever other metric you feel is appropriate, where do you see, say, bitcoin if it is traded at a fair value?  How do you come to that conclusion?

How do you value something that has no intrinsic value?  The only thing bitcoin adds to the world is pollution.

Wooshhhhhh 

I have a feeling Aegis, a chartered financial planner, is aware that magic-made-up-internet-bucks have no intrisic value. I'd expect that's the point he was making to homeless9.

But you're both wrong - coz line go up which mean more money

Woosh, I was agreeing with Aegis, kablam!!

I just got checkmated in this game of 4d chess!

  

User232002

Exodi said:

darren232002 said:
Haha. Nobody is going to sell you a Bitcoin for $41k in the current environment. Good chance we never go below $45k again actually.

darren232002 said:

if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:

moneywow1 said:

Can't wait for the big crash.

200%+ CAGR for over a decade and you're still saying this. At this point its not based on rational thought, its simply a psychological bias. FYI I bought and sold Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014. The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

darren232002 said:
Tesla, Microstrategy, Massmutual, Square et al have bought billions of $ of BTC. Chances are Elon probably has a better idea of managing money than you do. Chances are that he consulted with several people before that purchase; people who all also probably have a better chance of managing money than you do.

Oof, this didn't age well.

Did you sell everything you have out of interest? The ability to change your mind given new information is an important attribute.

Sold nothing. Bought more and will continue to do so. What new information? The thesis is literally playing out right in front of your eyes...

Fed finally got to 3% and economy looks like it wants to puke. Approximately half of their $31T debt matures within 2 years, so if they keep rates there for 6 months that's an extra few hundred billion $ per year in debt payments by the govt, or about 10% of their tax revenue. Do you think the US, or any, government can afford to lose 10% of their revenue due to interest payments? The EU, UK and JP are even worse off than the US due to demographics and resource constraints. The UK just undid a years worth of QT by stepping in to bail out the pension funds (something else I've mentioned several times btw - Pension funds are an absolute mess and are the next govt bailout waiting to happen).

When push comes to shove, the printer will always be turned on. This all ends up one way, with YCC and fiat currencies being printed to cover obligations. Bitcoin is sitting very pretty.

Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. Just posting that so that nobody comes out with some ridiculous statement like 'claims he bought Bitcoin at an opportune time' in a few years time.

Frequentlyhere

I agree that it looks like there's a global pension fund issue and in large part that's due to increasing global bond market pressures, which may or may not ultimately force the FED's hand in easing off the interest rate rises. That may mean we see ongoing inflation at a higher rate than they'd like.

Where we depart is the 'wavy hand magic' bit where assuming we end up in this potential problematic situation all of us go:

"Yeah, you know what the solution is? Unregulated internet magic tokens!  I mean they have such a great record in staying stable in value, and hardly ever get stolen. Plus even Grandma knows how to safely secure her easy to recall 124 digit passphrase using advanced cryptography and a cold storage unit for security".

So we all just hoover up bitcoin and give up carrying our £'s round in wheelbarrows to buy bread. Meanwhile, the Fed and all monetary authorities around the World just sit back shaking their heads in awe at the raw power of the Bitcoin revolution, totally powerless just to, say, make crypto illegal / ban exchanges / do many other things that countries have done already to clamp down on it when they choose to. 

Eventually, with all public services in tatters, Michael Saylor benevolently issues every citizen of the World 5 sats each. Enough by that point to buy a scrap of land, a cow and a chicken. Statues are built in his honour and we're all gloriously happy, safe in the knowledge that we managed to avoid the horrendous fate of mildly high inflation for a while.

[Deleted User]

darren232002 said:
if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:
Sold nothing. [...] Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. 

Speaks for itself I think.

HODL'ing bitcoin even when his "beliefs are invalidated" and price has fallen below publicly pre-announced stop-loss.

User232002

Frequentlyhere said:

I agree that it looks like there's a global pension fund issue and in large part that's due to increasing global bond market pressures, which may or may not ultimately force the FED's hand in easing off the interest rate rises. That may mean we see ongoing inflation at a higher rate than they'd like.

Where we depart is the 'wavy hand magic' bit where assuming we end up in this potential problematic situation all of us go:

"Yeah, you know what the solution is? Unregulated internet magic tokens!  I mean they have such a great record in staying stable in value, and hardly ever get stolen. Plus even Grandma knows how to safely secure her easy to recall 124 digit passphrase using advanced cryptography and a cold storage unit for security".

So we all just hoover up bitcoin and give up carrying our £'s round in wheelbarrows to buy bread. Meanwhile, the Fed and all monetary authorities around the World just sit back shaking their heads in awe at the raw power of the Bitcoin revolution, totally powerless just to, say, make crypto illegal / ban exchanges / do many other things that countries have done already to clamp down on it when they choose to. 

Eventually, with all public services in tatters, Michael Saylor benevolently issues every citizen of the World 5 sats each. Enough by that point to buy a scrap of land, a cow and a chicken. Statues are built in his honour and we're all gloriously happy, safe in the knowledge that we managed to avoid the horrendous fate of mildly high inflation for a while.

I've posted exactly what I think will happen in the long run, so I have no idea why you are spouting crazy ideas that I clearly don't think will happen. Just factually wrong in many ways too, 124 digit passphrase etc, but I'm sure you think you are being clever by doing that.

Bitcoin use goes up in countries with mismanaged currencies. Its a problem the developing world has dealt with for decades. Same will happen when people in the developed world start to experience currency failures.

Deleted_User said:

darren232002 said:
if it ever went back below $20k my beliefs are invalidated and I'd be selling everything I have

darren232002 said:
Sold nothing. [...] Bitcoin is currently @ $19k. 

Speaks for itself I think.

HODL'ing bitcoin even when his "beliefs are invalidated" and price has fallen below publicly pre-announced stop-loss.

Speaks for what? Is your assertion that I am somehow not to be trusted because I said I would sell a year ago and *gasp* changed my mind? If I sell, you claim 'see, even the biggest supporter on this forum has lost faith, I knew it was a scam!' If I don't sell, you claim 'OMG, he said he'd sell if it went < $20k and he didn't, I knew it was all a scam!' Its all a bit tiresome.

Still up substantially more than the S&P and any other market over the same period of my investment. 

Remembered why I stopped posting here.