BITCOIN

flaneurs_lobster

hallmark said:

Just a matter of time before somebody starts to sell DogeTurd.

You knew this, right?

https://opensea.io/assets/ethereum/0x495f947276749ce646f68ac8c248420045cb7b5e/93286448579747295008687894214958177990168199227657113304386885984223464783873/

(although it's not a cryptocurrency, it's a NFT).

See also DogeShit and DogePoop.

Reaper

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

Exodi

Reaper said:

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

You missed the part where 73-81% of retail Bitcoin buyers maintain that it was a good investment.

Crypto bro's are notoriously inexorable.

GDB2222

Reaper said:

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

It must be rather hard to tell, as someone might have made a killing previously, and sold out. Then, later on, he bought some more, and he is 'into the negative' on that new holding. Overall, he might be doing better than the researchers think.

Pollycat

DannyCarey said:

Of being an appreciating asset with a fixed supply, which cannot be debased, that is accepted and used globally to send instant, permission-less borderless payments without any intermediary or third party, final settlement in around 10 minutes, that kind of thing. 
 

Did investors with FTX think the same, Danny?

Exodi

GDB2222 said:

Reaper said:

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

It must be rather hard to tell, as someone might have made a killing previously, and sold out. Then, later on, he bought some more, and he is 'into the negative' on that new holding. Overall, he might be doing better than the researchers think.

It's as likely (if not more so due to the price movements of BTC) that someone might have made a small profit previously, and sold out. Then, later on, he bought some more, and he is significantly 'into the negative' on that new holding. Overall, he might be doing worse than the researchers think.

I don't think there's anyone (even DannyCarey, though he never ceases to amaze) who would reasonably disagree with the summary findings of the research: 

We show that, when the price of Bitcoin rises, more people download and actively use crypto exchange apps. These new users are disproportionately younger and male, commonly identified as the most "risk-seeking" segment of the population. We show that, due to price declines, an estimated 73-81% of retail investors have likely lost money on their initial investment. 
...
Overall, our results suggest that rising Bitcoin prices are what drive crypto adoption (consistent with theories of feedback trading), rather than alternative explanations.

We must also rememeber that while people (in general) are all to happy to brag about the wins and gains they might make on something, people are likely to be less boastful and vocal about the losses they make, as can be shown below.

Gain or loss per user (USD)	Percentage of users
-1000 – -750	21.5
-750 – -500	21.3
-500 – -250	22.8
-250 – 0	15.4
0 - 250	2.3
250 – 500	0.6
500 – 750	0.8
750 – 1,000	1.1
1,000 – 10,000	12.1
10,000 – 100,000	1.3
100,000 – 1,000,000	0.6
1,000,000 – 3,500,000	0.011

Frequentlyhere

Reaper said:

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

Sounds about right, as of course most people waded in when $100k was "inevitable".

Though in reality losses are probably far higher as many people "diversified their winnings" into blahcoins and/or stored them into since defunct exchanges to "earn yield".

Exodi

Frequentlyhere said:

Reaper said:

"Somewhere between 73 and 81 percent of retail Bitcoin buyers are likely to be into the negative on their investment, according to research published Monday by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." [source]

Sounds about right, as of course most people waded in when $100k was "inevitable".

Though in reality losses are probably far higher as many people "diversified their winnings" into blahcoins and/or stored them into since defunct exchanges to "earn yield".

I'm confused, I always thought this was part of the holy trinity of diversification:

• Equities
• Bonds
  
• Meme-coins with 60% yield
  

Malthusian

GDB2222 said:

It must be rather hard to tell, as someone might have made a killing previously, and sold out. Then, later on, he bought some more, and he is 'into the negative' on that new holding. Overall, he might be doing better than the researchers think.

True, but remember that punters' money in == punters' money out, and if one person makes a killing of, say, quintupling their initial stake, four people have to lose the same stake, or eight people have to lose half the equivalent stake, or some similar combination.
The vast majority of money games involve a small minority of winners cashing out at the expense of the majority - lotteries, poker tournaments, Premium Bond interest, etc etc. The table quoted by Exodi shows that Bitcoin is exactly the same.
If there are a small number of "crypto whales" who've made huge profits from Bitcoin it follows that there must be lots of losers who funded those profits. Or a good few billionaires who've lost their fortunes in Bitcoin, but we can discount the latter as implausible. A lot of losing punters are currently pretending to themselves that they aren't losing because they're still hodling their numbers on a screen, but maths is maths.
So the 73-81% figure passes a sense check. It's also remarkably similar to those "77% of bros lose money with this platform" risk warnings you now see under adverts for CFDs.

Malthusian

Greed has nothing to do with it. Since 2008 young people and those formerly known as young, now middle aged have had sweet FA to invest in other than crypto because it is frictionless. You don't need a mortgage, you don't need a loan and you don't need a broker. You just need a few quid.
What is at play here is the massive divide between those that understand how to trade and follow markets and those that don't. Trading should be something taught at school 

...and in adventure parks near Keynsham in between sheep races and bunny cuddling, don't forget