BITCOIN

Zola.

Just Bitcoin (and the stock market) doing its thing. A good time to buy, if you haven't been watching stocks you'd notice many tech stocks are absolutely hammered also.

 The conpany i work at has had a record year of sales and growth, but our stocks lost 50% since the dip started end of November. Look at netflix etc... . I've been accumulating.

I should also say i think the next big parabolic run up could be 1000 days away or so.... Next halving is 2024 and usually takes around a year for it to blast off. 

HCIMbtw

Thrugelmir said:

Very quiet on the thread. Has the optimism been dented somwhat. With some investors now nursing considerable paper losses? 

Not really from my perspective, I just keep doing what I planned at the start.. DCA into S&S ISA and Crypto..

At the moment I am skewing my investment more into BTC than some alt coins like I was last year, so the changing market has shifted my perspective a little

I was down 30 ish % when I first started investing in S&S at one points a few years back, and its pretty much the same deal for me on crypto at the moment, but I am quite comfortable with the volatility

Scottex99

Chilling here.

Bought the dip last couple of days and I'm gonna buy it harder if we keep going down.

Not my work but just spotted this which I agree with:

*Did You Say "Crypto Winter"?*

 

After a week of red, the drawdown of BTC from its ATH now stands at almost 50%. This is steep and is resurfacing talk of a “crypto winter” from which it could, in true seasonal fashion, take months to emerge.

 

However, it is worth stepping back and remembering what was behind the last winter, and at whether the 4-year cycle theory still holds:

Back then, the market slump was driven by a natural correction of overheated valuations, with the listing of BTC futures on the CME as the trigger. Now, the correction is driven by macro factors, specifically expected rate increases and liquidity tightening from the US Fed. The 60d correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 was virtually 0 at the end of 2017 – now, it is over 65%.

Back then, BTC and ETH were “the market”. Most other assets were hyped ICO tokens or protocols that no longer exist. BTC dominance in December 2017 was over 60%. Since May 2021, it has been below 48%.

Also, today, crypto narratives have expanded way beyond “store of value” and “global computing platform”. They include financial services, social connections, self-expression, gaming and much more. Many tokens generate significant revenue. Many are gaining market share from traditional “equivalents”. These narratives are currently eclipsed by macro jitters, but are not going to disappear and indeed are likely to continue to strengthen as building progresses and investment continues to pour in.

The amount of new money coming into crypto funds – a16z’s $4.5 billion, FTX’s $2 billion, Pantera’s $1 billion, Katie Haun’s $900 million, to name just a few – points to continued investment, even if prices remain depressed for a while. The experienced managers running these funds will have lived through bear markets before and no doubt know that with strong development and engaged users, value eventually gets reflected.

As for the four-year mining cycle, it may feel like a natural rhythm and markets do like patterns, but the main fundamentals driving it in previous years (miners leaving the network post-halvings due to lack of profit, strong miner selling to raise cash) no longer hold. Even at lower price levels, miners are likely to be profitable. This, combined with their easier access to funding over the past year, means that they are no longer as beholden to the halving cycle, which anyway is decreasing in its overall impact on supply. In the 2018 winter, BTC miners were significant sellers. Now, they are net accumulators.

So, are we on the cusp of a “crypto winter”? The term “winter” implies hibernation until things get warmer. Prices are likely to continue to reflect macro concerns, which could turn quickly or take some time to resolve. Either way, it is unlikely that investment and progress will stop and wait.

Thrugelmir

Zola. said:

Just Bitcoin (and the stock market) doing its thing. A good time to buy, if you haven't been watching stocks you'd notice many tech stocks are absolutely hammered also.

 The conpany i work at has had a record year of sales and growth, but our stocks lost 50% since the dip started end of November. Look at netflix etc... . I've been accumulating.

I should also say i think the next big parabolic run up could be 1000 days away or so.... Next halving is 2024 and usually takes around a year for it to blast off. 

I'm an active investor so constantly monitor developments and position my portfolio accordingly. This helps reduces unwanted surprises that are often just a matter of time. There's a wise old saying.. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is always king. The era of pumped in liquidity and low interest rates is drawing to a close.

There's a lot of competition in the TV subscription space. Netflix in the longer term is likely to lose out to Disney. Spend is discretionary as well. With consumer spend being squeezed, cutting subscriptions in the face of an increased monthly cost is a likely option. 

The only certainty in the markets is uncertainty. If anything a period of poor returns wouldn't be any great surprise. Bitcoin appears to be highly correlated to the stock markets. Not the divesifier it was once purported to be. 

Zola.

There is a stronger correlation now thats for sure, probably because Wall Street and big institutions have began accumulating etc.  Agreed that we could be in for a bumpy few years in all markets.

Overall my S&S ISA hasn't dropped that much yet at all though, given its mostly global trackers. 

lozzy1965

 Zola. said:

There is a stronger correlation now thats for sure, probably because Wall Street and big institutions have began accumulating etc.  Agreed that we could be in for a bumpy few years in all markets.

Overall my S&S ISA hasn't dropped that much yet at all though, given its mostly global trackers. 

Maybe because the markets haven't actually dropped that much at all either

Zola.

Well, I did see that the bigger weighted companies in most indexes, like Microsoft (down 14% in the last month), Apple (-11%), Amazon (-15%), Tesla (-15%), etc.... I had expected an automatic cascade down through the various indexes... was surprised to see it hadn't affected my ISA balance that much...  still time I suppose

london21

There are winners and losers.

Have not been seeing as much buy the dip nowadays.

I have never gotten involved but ever so often excitement and dread around. 

Malthusian

I wonder how much money that would previously have been pumped into Bitcoin after a 50% dump can't be this time, because it's already been spunked on NFT clip art.

Adyinvestment

We can't reasonably expect the huge upswings without having to sit through the downswings, the current dip is a normal occurrence for Bitcoin and something I am happy comfortable with.