BITCOIN

adindas

Zola. said:

Michael121 said:

Money, Markets, Debt, Inflation + the Great Reset. A mathematical proof of troubled times ahead! - YouTube

So just watched this someone linked his channel earlier. He's basically saying m2 goes up equals inflation. If that is true then why has japan not had this sort of inflation and why are we only getting high inflation now.

Personally i think the inflation is due to the supply issues and maybe the money that ended up directly in our hands, some of which is saved or used to pay off debt, that part isn't inflationary, the debt and saved portion? I don't get how Q/E causes inflation either, it don't buy everyday goods, asset inflation maybe but then again some people make a pretty good argument that Q/E isn't inflationary at all. They say its an asset swap, or a duration swap, can't explain it to mind baffling to me. 

"Quantitive Easing" is just a deliberately misleading name for "Money printing". Excessive money printing is a direct cause of inflation. There are no free lunches.

Very obvious. The FED were printing US$3T money in the market. I believe similar practice in other countries.

Where does the money come from to allow the government to buy bond/asset, to give paycheck to pay forlough to many people ??

Scottex99

Hexane said:

Scottex99 said:

mooneysaver said:

So now we are not allowed to post about Safemoon?

Posting on behalf of your business is only permitted if you are an MSE verified user. If you are not a verified user, please do not post on behalf of a business.

Yet people can freely post about BTC, Ethereum etc. with no recourse...

I don't think it takes a genius to work out what's going on here.

Lol what’s going on?

Someone posted a stream-of-consciousness text that was very upbeat about Safemoon. I considered it a work of art, perhaps it could become an NFT if the author retained a copy of it. It used the word "we" in relation to Safemoon a great many times. I interpreted that the same way that the forum moderators appear to have done.

Yeah I get that, I'm asking him.

His post history is bizarre, asking mods to merge groups, copying another poster and then out the blue writing essays about SAFEMOON that ofc nobody responds to

Scottex99

Wasn't so many years ago that carbon credits were the commodity of the day promoted by smooth talking salesmen. Salesmen just talk the talk.  No idea what they actually talking about once you cut through the noise. Another pump and dump trade which made a few people very rich and many poorer. 

I don't sell, I trade.

In fact I haven't done any outbound stuff for about 2.5 years when my company was 4 people in a tiny office. Now it's 40 people and we can barely keep up with the referrals, the inbounds and all the onboarding that we need to do.

Market is rekt today, I'm sure your equities are doing well though eh

Michael121

adindas said:

Zola. said:

Michael121 said:

Money, Markets, Debt, Inflation + the Great Reset. A mathematical proof of troubled times ahead! - YouTube

So just watched this someone linked his channel earlier. He's basically saying m2 goes up equals inflation. If that is true then why has japan not had this sort of inflation and why are we only getting high inflation now.

Personally i think the inflation is due to the supply issues and maybe the money that ended up directly in our hands, some of which is saved or used to pay off debt, that part isn't inflationary, the debt and saved portion? I don't get how Q/E causes inflation either, it don't buy everyday goods, asset inflation maybe but then again some people make a pretty good argument that Q/E isn't inflationary at all. They say its an asset swap, or a duration swap, can't explain it to mind baffling to me. 

"Quantitive Easing" is just a deliberately misleading name for "Money printing". Excessive money printing is a direct cause of inflation. There are no free lunches.

Very obvious. The FED were printing US$3T money in the market. I believe similar practice in other countries.

Where does the money come from to allow the government to buy bond/asset, to give paycheck to pay forlough to many people ??

It doesn't matter the question is, is it inflationary. Or should i say is it going to bring 60% devaluation to fiat like the BTC bros like to think.

The Money Supply Mystery (epbmacroresearch.com)

Another guy suggesting that not all money is created equal. 

Thrugelmir

Very quiet on the thread. Has the optimism been dented somwhat. With some investors now nursing considerable paper losses? 

Zola.

Just Bitcoin (and the stock market) doing its thing. A good time to buy, if you haven't been watching stocks you'd notice many tech stocks are absolutely hammered also.

 The conpany i work at has had a record year of sales and growth, but our stocks lost 50% since the dip started end of November. Look at netflix etc... . I've been accumulating.

I should also say i think the next big parabolic run up could be 1000 days away or so.... Next halving is 2024 and usually takes around a year for it to blast off. 

HCIMbtw

Thrugelmir said:

Very quiet on the thread. Has the optimism been dented somwhat. With some investors now nursing considerable paper losses? 

Not really from my perspective, I just keep doing what I planned at the start.. DCA into S&S ISA and Crypto..

At the moment I am skewing my investment more into BTC than some alt coins like I was last year, so the changing market has shifted my perspective a little

I was down 30 ish % when I first started investing in S&S at one points a few years back, and its pretty much the same deal for me on crypto at the moment, but I am quite comfortable with the volatility

Scottex99

Chilling here.

Bought the dip last couple of days and I'm gonna buy it harder if we keep going down.

Not my work but just spotted this which I agree with:

*Did You Say "Crypto Winter"?*

 

After a week of red, the drawdown of BTC from its ATH now stands at almost 50%. This is steep and is resurfacing talk of a “crypto winter” from which it could, in true seasonal fashion, take months to emerge.

 

However, it is worth stepping back and remembering what was behind the last winter, and at whether the 4-year cycle theory still holds:

Back then, the market slump was driven by a natural correction of overheated valuations, with the listing of BTC futures on the CME as the trigger. Now, the correction is driven by macro factors, specifically expected rate increases and liquidity tightening from the US Fed. The 60d correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 was virtually 0 at the end of 2017 – now, it is over 65%.

Back then, BTC and ETH were “the market”. Most other assets were hyped ICO tokens or protocols that no longer exist. BTC dominance in December 2017 was over 60%. Since May 2021, it has been below 48%.

Also, today, crypto narratives have expanded way beyond “store of value” and “global computing platform”. They include financial services, social connections, self-expression, gaming and much more. Many tokens generate significant revenue. Many are gaining market share from traditional “equivalents”. These narratives are currently eclipsed by macro jitters, but are not going to disappear and indeed are likely to continue to strengthen as building progresses and investment continues to pour in.

The amount of new money coming into crypto funds – a16z’s $4.5 billion, FTX’s $2 billion, Pantera’s $1 billion, Katie Haun’s $900 million, to name just a few – points to continued investment, even if prices remain depressed for a while. The experienced managers running these funds will have lived through bear markets before and no doubt know that with strong development and engaged users, value eventually gets reflected.

As for the four-year mining cycle, it may feel like a natural rhythm and markets do like patterns, but the main fundamentals driving it in previous years (miners leaving the network post-halvings due to lack of profit, strong miner selling to raise cash) no longer hold. Even at lower price levels, miners are likely to be profitable. This, combined with their easier access to funding over the past year, means that they are no longer as beholden to the halving cycle, which anyway is decreasing in its overall impact on supply. In the 2018 winter, BTC miners were significant sellers. Now, they are net accumulators.

So, are we on the cusp of a “crypto winter”? The term “winter” implies hibernation until things get warmer. Prices are likely to continue to reflect macro concerns, which could turn quickly or take some time to resolve. Either way, it is unlikely that investment and progress will stop and wait.

Thrugelmir

Zola. said:

Just Bitcoin (and the stock market) doing its thing. A good time to buy, if you haven't been watching stocks you'd notice many tech stocks are absolutely hammered also.

 The conpany i work at has had a record year of sales and growth, but our stocks lost 50% since the dip started end of November. Look at netflix etc... . I've been accumulating.

I should also say i think the next big parabolic run up could be 1000 days away or so.... Next halving is 2024 and usually takes around a year for it to blast off. 

I'm an active investor so constantly monitor developments and position my portfolio accordingly. This helps reduces unwanted surprises that are often just a matter of time. There's a wise old saying.. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is always king. The era of pumped in liquidity and low interest rates is drawing to a close.

There's a lot of competition in the TV subscription space. Netflix in the longer term is likely to lose out to Disney. Spend is discretionary as well. With consumer spend being squeezed, cutting subscriptions in the face of an increased monthly cost is a likely option. 

The only certainty in the markets is uncertainty. If anything a period of poor returns wouldn't be any great surprise. Bitcoin appears to be highly correlated to the stock markets. Not the divesifier it was once purported to be. 

Zola.

There is a stronger correlation now thats for sure, probably because Wall Street and big institutions have began accumulating etc.  Agreed that we could be in for a bumpy few years in all markets.

Overall my S&S ISA hasn't dropped that much yet at all though, given its mostly global trackers.