BITCOIN

Frequentlyhere

I think I can agree with all of that, Zola. Unfortunately, there are far too many people like that.

I mean, look at this one "The Doctor's 100% bet on Bitcoin". In a financial independence forum no less, not even crypto! The hubris is palpable, and the scary thing is the number of similarly brainwashed comments. I think in reality this guy is very well insulated, but still, the sentiments are quite something to behold.

Zola.

I saw that thread. Whilst he came off a bit arrogant, he has the deep conviction of someone who has been "orange pilled" by Bitcoin. He also got a bit wound up by the sarky replies.. He seems to have only read "The Bitcoin Standard", which is mostly an excellent book, but one book wouldn't be quite enough for me to do what he has done... who knows though, it may work out the best decision ever, or not. I doubt he'll be crippled if bitcoin somehow goes to zero. 

He's not the only one going all-in though, you do see more and more stories like this emerging, maybe it's a top signal

https://www.foxla.com/sports/rams-wr-odell-beckham-jr-to-receive-full-salary-in-bitcoin

Malthusian

I mean, look at this one "The Doctor's 100% bet on Bitcoin". In a financial independence forum no less, not even crypto! The hubris is palpable, and the scary thing is the number of similarly brainwashed comments. I think in reality this guy is very well insulated, but still, the sentiments are quite something to behold.

As you say, he is very well insulated. So insulated that his claim to have made a "100% bet on Bitcoin" is complete nonsense.

Let us assume he earns the average UK doctor's salary of £76,300pa. That would mean his personal annual contribution to his NHS pension is 13.5%pa. The NHS also pays 20.68%pa into the scheme. That's all his money paid in exchange for his labour, so in total he is investing £2,173 per month into the NHS pension scheme. So if the NHS pension and £1,000pm into Bitcoin are his only two investments, he is actually making a 31% bet on Bitcoin.

But this is of course an underestimate because "contributions" into the NHS scheme are a cargo cult ritual. The doc's NHS pension will in reality be paid by taxpayers when he is retired, not from his contributions. "NHS pension contributions" consist of the Government shuffling money around from one pot to another before spending it in the present.

What the doc is actually accumulating as an investment, by working for the NHS and joining the pension scheme, is a promise to pay 1/54 of his salary from State Pension Age for each year he is an active member - so 1/54 * 76,300 = £1,413pa. The value of a promise to pay £1,413pa from 68, index-linked and guaranteed for life with a spouse's pension, is £78,035 based on open market annuity rates.

You could argue that the value of that promise needs to be discounted if you are not yet 68, but you would be wrong, because the promise is linked to inflation and there is no prospect of it being invested to generate growth above inflation until retirement date because it's taxpayer's money. So the value of that promise in the present is still £78,035 in today's money.

So in reality the doc is accumulating £1,000 each month in Bitcoin and £6,502 each month in NHS pension; so the thread should be titled "The Doctor's 13% Bet on Bitcoin".

The reason this matters is that the people professing to be the most bullish about crypto consistently don't put their money where their mouth is. Either they don't have any money to put there because they are skint. Or they are selling shovels in the gold rush (e.g. running crypto exchanges, making a modest living from transaction fees so that other people can hodl crypto and get rich). Or like the Reddit bro they are investing what actually turns out to be a very modest proportion of their wealth.

If even the most bullish crypto promoters aren't actually that confident in it going to the moon, there's no reason the general population will be either, which means no new money and number no go up.

Zola.

He quite clearly stated that he will only invest in Bitcoin outside of his pension contributions, so that is 100% of his net pay 'investing money' going to Bitcoin until 2030. But don't let that stop you from rambling on

No matter what his salary is, investing £1000 a month into one thing is pretty bullish. Will be interesting to see if he has that same conviction when Bitcoin takes a hard crash..

Malthusian

Money = money. I might as well say that I'm going to put 1p a month into Bitcoin and proudly tell Reddit that I'm putting 100% of my Bitcoin savings into Bitcoin. Witness me!

No matter what his salary is, investing £1000 a month into one thing is pretty bullish.

And to be fair putting 13% of your retirement fund into Bitcoin is still pretty bullish. Even some of its advocates often say that you should only put in 5-10% of your free assets. (Although the only point in doing so is to kick yourself when it next pumps for not putting more in.) It's just not a "100% bet" by any stretch of the mathematically literate imagination.

It's a bit like saying you're going to jump off a cliff because you believe that Jesus will protect you, and not tell the faithful that you've thoroughly scouted the water beforehand. There is the same disconnect between what you want people to believe you are doing vs what you are actually doing. When someone points out that it's not really a leap of faith you can't retort "I'm still jumping off a cliff so what's the difference".

Zola.

Money is money yep, 1p isn't £1000 though...
It's still a pretty ballsy move if he actually goes through with it.. when most on the FIREUK forum(s) will be mainly doing the standard index fund investing strategy for the most part. He did set himself up for the trolls with the semantics of the title, I don't disagree.. 

Zola.

Here is a pretty cool little site for watching new transactions being grouped together before being confirmed in the next block, on the base layer.

This is generally every ten minutes, something which Bitcoin has been doing 24/7 non-stop since 2009. 

https://bits.monospace.live/

adindas

Frequentlyhere said:

"There are legitimate ways for people to regularly return rates close to 30% with little risk (aside from the lack of regulation/platform) primarily related to arbitrage"

I cannot speak on behalf of the OP but I have read many information including on MSE that in the past people could easily get that return using Match betting Arbitrage. If you google it there are tons of info about this

But there is a limit to define, once you get caught you will be banned and you will need to move to another platform. There is only limited Match betting platforms outthere. So once you exhaust all of them that will be the end of the game.

adindas

Everyone knows that staples, food have value because you could eat it. Some people on here said that BTC do not value, a few people are referring to what Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are saying

 

The discussion has been going on and on and have turned to become the dialogue of the deaf. On one hand people see the value of BTC on traditional ways such as staples, food. On the other hand, other people see the value in non-traditional way, for instance to see what blockchain could do in the future to increase efficiency, smart contract, land certificate to distribute wealth free from politics and government intervention, etc. Keep in mind efficiency could always be converted to a more tangible values in term of money equivalent. That is the way the industrial revolution changes the life and creating wealth. This is the way Amazon, FB (Meta Platform) creating value. In the past how much would it cost you to send message in no time, to get item, videos on your living room in no time ?? Invaluable, if it was possible to have it in the past. This is unrealised value that later become a reality that some people can not see. What is the current value of gene therapy, mapping, sequencing currently doing nothing to human. But what if they have turned out to be able to cure deseases which is currently incurable ??

Now those who think that BTC do not have value (e.g., £0). This is a teasing test.

If you offer to someone to choose either a voucher of full English breakfast value of £25 or one bitcoin (£0 based on some people on this thread), which one do you think the ordinary people will be chosing ??? Keep in mind you could not eat BTC but you could sell it for about US$50,000 and there are a lot of other people want to buy it.

I believe it is only the people who never read the news those who still believe that the flat is earth will choose the full english breakfast. The other people who might think they have missed the boat and in no way they would want to buy BTC at the current price but would like to have them if someone was offering it for £25. rofl

Section62

adindas said:

If you offer to someone to choose either a voucher of full English breakfast value of £25 or one bitcoin (£0 based on some people on this thread), which one do you think the ordinary people will be chosing ??? Keep in mind you could not eat BTC but you could sell it for about US$50,000 and there are a lot of other people want to buy it.

This is very much a false dichotomy.  The two things are not comparable.  $50,000 is clearly worth more than £25, but then you could say the same thing about other options.

Which would you choose, £25 full English breakfast voucher, or €44,000?  A £25 full English breakfast voucher, or 24,333 BT.A shares?

At the point of making the bargain one side is very clearly worth very substantially more.  The only people who might be tempted by the £25 full English breakfast voucher might be those desperate for food, or those who make a decision that the breakfast is worth more to them personally at this point in time than the potential wealth offered by the alternatives.

It isn't clear what point you were trying to make, but you aren't making an argument in favour of Bitcoin. Anyone who isn't starving hungry would be better off taking the Bitcoin and then selling it immediately, and using some of the proceeds to buy breakfast.

So we could add to the equation that someone might decline the Bitcoin offer because they don't believe they could turn it into the asset/currency of their choice quickly enough to still end up with a value of £25.  You are presenting a binary (no pun intended) choice when really there are many choices and outcomes.

A gift or payment of a certain value at a particular moment in time is not 'proof' of something's worth vs a different thing.

Moreover, what "ordinary people" would spend £25 on a full English breakfast?  Ones who need to do some MSE learning perhaps?

adindas said:

I believe it is only the people who never read the news those who still believe that the flat is earth will choose the full english breakfast. The other people who might think they have missed the boat and in no way they would want to buy BTC at the current price but would like to have them if someone was offering it for £25. rofl

You keep on about 'flat earthers' and what Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger say - but nobody in these threads is making the comments you are talking about.

Nobody.

It is a really strange way to make an argument in favour of Bitcoin/Crypto.... what is it you are hoping to achieve here?

In the meantime it is coming across as if you are trying to insult other non-specific forum members.  If you have a point to make it would be good if you could make it... because going on about 'flat earthers' and Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are giving the discussion a bit of a toxic vibe, which doesn't do any of us any good.

Edit: "dialogue of the deaf" is also insulting and derogatory, please find an alternative expression in future. Thanks.