Goodbye to private motoring...from just 9 years?

AdrianC

treeroy said:

I'm not convinced that petrol will become expensive. The less demand for petrol, the lower the price.

The thing to remember is that a barrel of crude oil is refined into different fractions.

You can't get petrol from the heavy bits. You can't get diesel from the light bits. So, as long as products refined from crude are used somewhere, there will be something approximating petrol looking for a use. And fuel oil will be in use for marine transport for a LOOOOONG while, as well as bitumen, and as well as other products used for non-fuel uses...

i personally think it is wrong for the government to ban ICE cars.

There's no suggestion they will. Just that they will ban the sale of new-built ones.

But petrol cars will still be around for a very long time.

Indeed. The average age of a car at scrapping is just under 14yrs, so petrol-electric hybrids will be around in substantial numbers until about 2050.

I will never buy an electric car

May one ask why such a definitive statement?

treeroy

AdrianC said:

treeroy said:

I'm not convinced that petrol will become expensive. The less demand for petrol, the lower the price.

The thing to remember is that a barrel of crude oil is refined into different fractions.

You can't get petrol from the heavy bits. You can't get diesel from the light bits. So, as long as products refined from crude are used somewhere, there will be something approximating petrol looking for a use. And fuel oil will be in use for marine transport for a LOOOOONG while, as well as bitumen, and as well as other products used for non-fuel uses...

i personally think it is wrong for the government to ban ICE cars.

There's no suggestion they will. Just that they will ban the sale of new-built ones.

But petrol cars will still be around for a very long time.

Indeed. The average age of a car at scrapping is just under 14yrs, so petrol-electric hybrids will be around in substantial numbers until about 2050.

I will never buy an electric car

May one ask why such a definitive statement?

I wont pretend like I understand how oil is refined but yes, it's not going anywhere. 

And yes that's what I meant, that I think it is wrong for the government to ban the sale of new ICE cars. I don't agree with the Nanny State that the current government is set on expanding. I think if a company wants to sell a product, and I want to buy the product, then as long as it is safe to use, the government should have no right to make it illegal. 

Maybe that is a very definitive statement. I am not a psychic, I can't foresee what I will or will not do in the future.
But right now I can tell you that electric cars have no appeal whatsoever to me. They are uninteresting to drive, they make no noise, they don't give you even remotely the same experience as petrol cars. And you cannot modify them anywhere near as much. Yes they are fast but they do not give me the enjoyment of a petrol car. 

Uxb1

AdrianC said:

The National Grid say there isn't a problem.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted

More interesting was what what he did NOT say.
Yes the National Grid will cope - the local distribution network which is not managed by the national grid but is managed by the DNO's won't.
But then that's not his problem......

Jack_Cork

facade said:

parking_question_chap said:

Where is all the electricity coming from Boris?

There is plenty of spare electricity at night, which is why it is cheaper then, they can't turn off nuclear, no point turning off wind, not sure whether CCGT becomes inefficient if it is turned on & off, or even how quickly it can be. With intelligently managed charging to spread the load over the whole period between 7PM and 7AM there wont be a problem.

It easier to turn off wind than CCGT, so thats what they do

yksi

THE SKY IS FALLING!
Or more likely, fuel stations will continue to trade for years afterwards, and eventually, those with 30-year-old petrol cars will need to install an electric engine if they want to keep driving their classic motors once petrol sales are banned in 2051. None of us fell over and died when leaded fuel stopped being sold.

yksi

As for people bemoaning that they don't have the time for charging via electric, we're still not considering the impact of changes in technology. And we really can't know how our lives will be in ten years' time. Haven't we learned from Covid that we can't predict the future by looking at things from the lense of today? Nobody in their right mind thought that working from home would be the norm in 2019, and yet here we are. People can and have completely changed their work/life balance. Home offices are now expected in a property and house design will change accordingly. We should expect that home charging points will become normal too, simply because people will need them. We'll eventually look back on how ridiculous it was to queue for fuel on a forecourt and have to pump it in and pay inside a shop (some people already don't go into the shop to pay).

facade

Jack_Cork said:

facade said:

parking_question_chap said:

Where is all the electricity coming from Boris?

There is plenty of spare electricity at night, which is why it is cheaper then, they can't turn off nuclear, no point turning off wind, not sure whether CCGT becomes inefficient if it is turned on & off, or even how quickly it can be. With intelligently managed charging to spread the load over the whole period between 7PM and 7AM there wont be a problem.

It easier to turn off wind than CCGT, so thats what they do

I looked it up, it takes about an hour to bring a CCGT plant online, I don't know what that would do for overall efficiency though (not a lot if you only run the CCGT for a couple of hours).  As you say, wind can be turned off if we have a surplus that we can't export- they have to stop them if it is too windy anyway.

I was reading some pseudo-science the other day about electrolytic iron being a way to store surplus electricity, the iron powder can then be oxidised as an energy source, and the iron oxide magically electrolysed back to iron (this is the bit I'm sceptical of) so you could make a powerstation rather like pumped storage, with grid surplus producing more fuel. I think it is up there with the "massive weight on a string in a big hole" storage power stations, but you never know......

Ebe_Scrooge

AdrianC said:

 And fuel oil will be in use for marine transport for a LOOOOONG while, as well as bitumen, and as well as other products used for non-fuel uses...

See, that's something that puzzles me.  Presumably the whole point about getting rid of ICE cars is to reduce global pollution.  I've seen figures banded about that suggest one of those very large cargo ships emits as much pollution as 50 million cars - surely, the massive global shipping trade chucks out a whole lot more pollutants in the grand scheme of things than all the cars in the world.

Why not focus the time and money on getting those ships to run on nuclear?  The technology for nuclear propulsion has been used in warships and submarines for years, so it's not as though it's technically difficult.  Sure, it'll cost a fair bit - but wouldn't that have a far greater impact overall than just getting rid of ICE cars?

AdrianC

treeroy said:
I think if a company wants to sell a product, and I want to buy the product, then as long as it is safe to use, the government should have no right to make it illegal.

By George, I think he's got it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-health-england-publishes-air-pollution-evidence-review
"Air pollution is the biggest environmental threat to health in the UK, with between 28,000 and 36,000 deaths a year attributed to long-term exposure. There is strong evidence that air pollution causes the development of coronary heart disease, stroke, respiratory disease and lung cancer, and exacerbates asthma."

But right now I can tell you that electric cars have no appeal whatsoever to me. They are uninteresting to drive, they make no noise, they don't give you even remotely the same experience as petrol cars.

Because, of course, so many petrol cars are interesting and exciting and appealing purely because they're petrol... You've never seen a Qashqai or an i10 or... frankly, about 90% of the market... then?
Is an electric Corsa somehow duller than a petrol one?
Hell, I'd have a Twizy tomorrow for local running-around, if it wasn't for the battery lease. Gloriously barking.
Maybe a Citroen Ami (and why not? After all, I've had a couple of the old Amis).

Remember, this is only the sale of NEW cars. There is no suggestion of a ban on existing ICE cars - including classics. Which tend to be FAR more interesting than any new car.

jon81uk

Ebe_Scrooge said:

AdrianC said:

 And fuel oil will be in use for marine transport for a LOOOOONG while, as well as bitumen, and as well as other products used for non-fuel uses...

See, that's something that puzzles me.  Presumably the whole point about getting rid of ICE cars is to reduce global pollution.  I've seen figures banded about that suggest one of those very large cargo ships emits as much pollution as 50 million cars - surely, the massive global shipping trade chucks out a whole lot more pollutants in the grand scheme of things than all the cars in the world.

Why not focus the time and money on getting those ships to run on nuclear?  The technology for nuclear propulsion has been used in warships and submarines for years, so it's not as though it's technically difficult.  Sure, it'll cost a fair bit - but wouldn't that have a far greater impact overall than just getting rid of ICE cars?

The bigger thing with cars/vans is moving the pollution out of cities to improve air quality.
Most people don't live, work or go to school next to a cargo ship, but they do have road traffic near them creating pollution.