Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Sailtheworld

adindas said:

Pfizer CEO sold 60 PERCENT of his stock for $5.6M the DAY of the vaccine announcement - but firm claims it was all part of a pre-announced trading plan agreed in AUGUST

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8938065/CEO-sells-stock-worth-5-6-mln-day-Pfizers-COVID-19-vaccine-update.html

Is it an insider trading??

Who could know the product better and earlier than the insiders on how successful their product are ??

This is the potential problem with investing in Bio Tech, Pharmaceutical companies. Pfizer is not a small cap stock but with small cap penny stock the problem is even much bigger..

Insider trading is illegal but the problem is how to prove it and the cost of investigating them.

There is a good educational videos and research regarding Insider trading. Search this title on youtube.. I deliberately do not put the link as i do not want to be accused that I am promoting this channel.

"Pfizer CEO Sells Shares After Vaccine Announcement - What Does It Mean?

Maybe a tactic for a speculative punt is to buy shares when a CEO pre announces they're going to sell?

adindas

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

Pfizer CEO sold 60 PERCENT of his stock for $5.6M the DAY of the vaccine announcement - but firm claims it was all part of a pre-announced trading plan agreed in AUGUST

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8938065/CEO-sells-stock-worth-5-6-mln-day-Pfizers-COVID-19-vaccine-update.html

Is it an insider trading??

Who could know the product better and earlier than the insiders on how successful their product are ??

This is the potential problem with investing in Bio Tech, Pharmaceutical companies. Pfizer is not a small cap stock but with small cap penny stock the problem is even much bigger..

Insider trading is illegal but the problem is how to prove it and the cost of investigating them.

There is a good educational videos and research regarding Insider trading. Search this title on youtube.. I deliberately do not put the link as i do not want to be accused that I am promoting this channel.

"Pfizer CEO Sells Shares After Vaccine Announcement - What Does It Mean?

Maybe a tactic for a speculative punt is to buy shares when a CEO pre announces they're going to sell?

One of my strategy that work for me is to swing trade the Megacap or well known stocks Stocks such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Netflix. There is a risk certainly but the risk  is very low with megacap companies the risk vs reward is overwhelmingly in favour of reward.

Just look at the history when there is a pull back of these Megacap stocks because of bad news, these stock will be bouncing back at long time high in less than one month in majority of cases. I just did it with Amazon. In just one less than two week I have made a gain of 4% (of US$ 3,000+).

It is highly likely, these stocks are already on your Index fund but you will not be able to take  best advantage of this favourable swing.

I also take risk by investing in emerging market such as chinese, HK, israeli stocks, as well as tapping in the EV and Green Energy, AI, 5G market which I believe will grow exponentially.

BrockStoker

adindas said:

The statistics show that in the long run it is only less rthan 10% of fund managers could beat the market "consistantly".  I wonder is there anyone here could manage to beat the market from composing a balance portfolio (divesifying in different sectors, market,  geograpics, etc)?.  But the history has shown even with a balance portfoio, in the market crash you will still get effected.

I hae seen many people beat the market significanly by taking the risk "buy low sell high" all the time.

But keep remember the capital preservation rule. Never sell at loss

Warren Buffett capital preservation rule in invesment: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1”. 

As you already know, I'm easily beating the market with my portfolio of (mostly biotech stocks). I'm not sure I'd be able to beat the market with a basket of very diversified stocks, primarily because I don't have a good understanding of all sectors/stocks, so I stick mostly to what I know (understanding what you invest in is crucial). Also, in my short time investing in stocks, I have found that it's futile trying to recreate a fund containing many stocks. I simply don't have the resources/time to find/keep an eye on many stocks, so I just concentrate on my "best ideas".

That said, I have a more diverse portfolio of funds (although it is still VERY overweight biotech/tech), that also easily beats the market:

The key is understanding the risks. While there are some risks with biotech/tech (the same risks that exist with all other investments - Eg. newbie sees it crashing and makes the mistake of exiting, thereby crystallizing a loss), I don't see most funds like tech/biotech as risky, since people will always need these things. So providing you are confident in your fund manager, have a long enough investing time horizon, and understand the pitfalls/psychology of investing, there is very little risk IMHO. Certainly much less so with funds than stocks.

You don't really need a deep understanding of tech (or biotech) to make money in it if you use funds. All you need to know is that people/society will always need tech/biotech. "Risk" is easily mitigated (partially at least) by holding some cash, and taking advantage of dips/crashes. Again, it comes down to psychology. When everyone else is panicking, you can be having a whale of a time, and look forward to a nice crash

As for "rule number 1" - of course TRY not to loose money, but in order to beat, you do need to take some "risk". That "risk" is often overblown though, as I eluded to in my words above.

adindas

I start investing in these stock about there months ago. This is my invest account as these stocks can not be held under ISA. I am using a limit order to enter the market based on the research of these individual stocks that have been done. can not be held under ISA.

ElephantBoy57

BrockStoker said:

The key is understanding the risks.

How/where do you get the grapphs from. I would like to compare my shares to the FTSE, might be poor at the moment though, my 10 shares are 15% down.

Although I I not sure if it takes into acccount the profit from sales, I am with HL

BrockStoker

ElephantBoy57,

I track my funds with Trustnet:

https://www.trustnet.com

adindas

ElephantBoy57 said:

BrockStoker said:

The key is understanding the risks.

How/where do you get the grapphs from. I would like to compare my shares to the FTSE, might be poor at the moment though, my 10 shares are 15% down.

Although I I not sure if it takes into acccount the profit from sales, I am with HL

You could also use Yahoo finance. In yahoo finance you coud track all of your stocks as well as the stock you want to track for swing trading.

adindas

Great the news "Moderna Vaccine was found to be 94.55% effective at preventing COVID-19". Highly likely, you will find a stockmarker rally in the US market opening today and many people will start buying it thinking it will go up further after the rally.

But as a firm beliver of  the contrarian investing strategy, I will do just the opposite.
Baron Rothschild "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"
John D. Rockefeller "The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets"
Warren Buffett "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,"

So what I wil do here is I will put a limit order for selling some of my position with reasonably high limit hoping it to get triggered today or in a few days. I am using indicators such as moving avarage, fast stochastic, bollinger Band, RSI or the major resistance level to see the proper price to sell it.

For buying back, I will wait until there is a pull back hopefully in a few weeks and the people who bought at these price will be doing panic selling add the red colour in the stock market.

There will be another news like this will be coming such as from Oxford VAcine Astra Zeneca, etc where you could repeat this iteration.

BrockStoker

Do you consider yourself a trader adindas?

If so, that might be the right thing to do - "buy the rumor, sell the news" - sell and buy back at a cheaper price. But, it's easy to get caught out like this.

Personally I think it's good to "buy when the blood is running", but after that, where possible, hold for the long term. That is where the real gains are IMHO. There will probably be more good news, and stock markets will continue to climb.

adindas

BrockStoker said:

Do you consider yourself a trader adindas?

If so, that might be the right thing to do - "buy the rumor, sell the news" - sell and buy back at a cheaper price. But, it's easy to get caught out like this.

Personally I think it's good to "buy when the blood is running", but after that, where possible, hold for the long term. That is where the real gains are IMHO. There will probably be more good news, and stock markets will continue to climb.

BrockStoker I do both.

Most of my investment is in index fund under my my SIIP account. I have not  sold any position in this fund. So the thing you describe as a real gain has been tapped here.

In my ISA and general invest account  I do both. There are some stocks I will keep it for long term especially those which are severely undervalued or expecting to grow exponentially such as LLOY, HSBC, RR,  NIO, XPENG, NNDM, SBE, TSLA,IPOC, IPOB, PSTH, WKHS  etc . The stock like LLOY, HSBC, RR. I have been a bagholder for a few months in red but things has now turned green and I will only sell it whne it wll be arounf the price before Covid-19 pandemic. Expecting to see a rally after Brexit and People get vacinated.

But there are some stocks where I do swing such as megacap stock and a few of well known stocks. I have done that many times with FB, AMZN, APPL.

These stock have the histoy to jump in response to the good news. Pull back with bad pulications or lower than expecting earning report. But it will only be going back to the new time high in a few weeks.. To benefit in the long run I already have these stocks on my SIIP index fund where these stocks are also part of it.

I know there is risk to get caught but that is the calcualted risk I am preparing to take.