Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Cus

adindas said:

adindas said:

This might be another jump for Tesla.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Monday that Tesla will join the S&P 500 effective prior to trading on Monday, Dec. 21.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/tesla-stock-jumps-on-news-company-is-joining-sp-500.html

Nice chart on TSLA since yesterday due to S&P 500 inclusion.  Also because Morgan Stanley has upgraded its Price target. All of these analysists have valued Tesla stock at around US$250 (before the split) because they are comparing Tesla valuation with Traditional car makers such as Ford, GM, etc.

Lets hope the rally continue until Dec 21, 2020.

Treating this stock as an Iron stock will make you rich as it is higky likely it will turn to become a megacap stock at some point in the future similar to what happen to other technolgy stocks  like AAPL, AMZN, FB, MSFT.

It is the same with bitcoin but with much lower risk vs reward.

Tesla market cap is already 60% of Facebook.  If it raised its profits by 20 times then it would make the same profit as Toyota.  I wonder how much actual profit is out there for Tesla, even if it completely dominates the car market (which is a big if).  

I own Tesla shares, I don't want to sell as I feel that I will miss out on more rampant rises.  I don't seem to have the same worries for other shares I own.  Am I being brain washed somehow with propaganda?  My kids seem to think the sun shines out of Teslas ****, yet they have never been in one.   I wonder if this thinking will just lead to a huge crash at some point in the future.

adindas

Cus said:

adindas said:

adindas said:

This might be another jump for Tesla.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Monday that Tesla will join the S&P 500 effective prior to trading on Monday, Dec. 21.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/tesla-stock-jumps-on-news-company-is-joining-sp-500.html

Nice chart on TSLA since yesterday due to S&P 500 inclusion.  Also because Morgan Stanley has upgraded its Price target. All of these analysists have valued Tesla stock at around US$250 (before the split) because they are comparing Tesla valuation with Traditional car makers such as Ford, GM, etc.

Lets hope the rally continue until Dec 21, 2020.

Treating this stock as an Iron stock will make you rich as it is higky likely it will turn to become a megacap stock at some point in the future similar to what happen to other technolgy stocks  like AAPL, AMZN, FB, MSFT.

It is the same with bitcoin but with much lower risk vs reward.

Tesla market cap is already 60% of Facebook.  If it raised its profits by 20 times then it would make the same profit as Toyota.  I wonder how much actual profit is out there for Tesla, even if it completely dominates the car market (which is a big if).  

I own Tesla shares, I don't want to sell as I feel that I will miss out on more rampant rises.  I don't seem to have the same worries for other shares I own.  Am I being brain washed somehow with propaganda?  My kids seem to think the sun shines out of Teslas ****, yet they have never been in one.   I wonder if this thinking will just lead to a huge crash at some point in the future.

Well, noone has a crystal ball. Car crash could happen any time in the future. But with the market cap such as TSLA it is not going to happen in one day. The damage might be just like a few dents rather than a total collapse. People who follow the stock market news regularly will be able to hear that news and will therefore have time to adjust their position. But also keep in mind, even you hold all of your investments in well divesified index fund, you are still not immune to market crash.

Assuming a person has been making a profit by now; If he sets "a stop loss" on his stock based on the original price when he bought them the worst he will get is a breakeven and he will still preserve his capital.

The stop might never be triggered for the stock like TSLA but it is important to preserve the capital. As warren Buffet rule of investing "do not lose money"

An individual will only invest in a stock based on the research s/he has done and make his own thesis. If they worry about investing in individual stock like TSLA they will probably need to rethink why they want to invest in individual stock in the first instance rather than just stick to a safer option, investing in index fund ?

Username999

Cus said:

Tesla market cap is already 60% of Facebook.  If it raised its profits by 20 times then it would make the same profit as Toyota.  I wonder how much actual profit is out there for Tesla, even if it completely dominates the car market (which is a big if).  

I own Tesla shares, I don't want to sell as I feel that I will miss out on more rampant rises.  I don't seem to have the same worries for other shares I own.  Am I being brain washed somehow with propaganda?  My kids seem to think the sun shines out of Teslas ****, yet they have never been in one.   I wonder if this thinking will just lead to a huge crash at some point in the future.

I think you should sell all your TSLA shares asap.
You obviously don't understand the company and to quote the old !!!!!! Guru Stock Investor Buffett, "don't invest in companies you don't understand" (unless your name is Warren Buffett).

Username999

Another SPAC - this time a UK based one - with $1.2B orders.
Arrival... https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/18/arrival-becomes-latest-electric-vehicle-startup-to-test-the-public-markets-with-a-spac/

Username999

adindas said:

Nice chart on TSLA since yesterday due to S&P 500 inclusion.  Also because Morgan Stanley has upgraded its Price target. 

That Morgan Stanley analyst has a 51% success rate, toss a coin.
He also had a price target of $272 on 2nd October and rated it a HOLD.
As soon as it was announced Tesla is to join the SP500 he puts his target up to $540 (so Morgan Stanley can take profits on the up).

25 Jun he was bullish on GM, bearish on TESLA.
23 Oct he had target of $360.

He's also stated that Tesla China sales will be ZERO in 2030. (people take him serious ???)
I'd take what Mr Adam Jonas has to say with a pinch of salt.
Morgan Stanley are obviously trading Tesla and he is talking their book (for their advantage).

 

"If you are a regular reader of CleanTechnica, you are probably familiar with Adam Jonas, the auto analyst for Morgan Stanley famous for asking “interesting” questions of Elon Musk during earnings calls. This week, Jonas is advising his clients that sales of electric vehicles will make General Motors a $100 billion company (it presently has a market cap of around $38 billion). At the same time, he warns that Tesla stock is set to lose about a third of its value."

Cus

Username999 said:

Cus said:

Tesla market cap is already 60% of Facebook.  If it raised its profits by 20 times then it would make the same profit as Toyota.  I wonder how much actual profit is out there for Tesla, even if it completely dominates the car market (which is a big if).  

I own Tesla shares, I don't want to sell as I feel that I will miss out on more rampant rises.  I don't seem to have the same worries for other shares I own.  Am I being brain washed somehow with propaganda?  My kids seem to think the sun shines out of Teslas ****, yet they have never been in one.   I wonder if this thinking will just lead to a huge crash at some point in the future.

I think you should sell all your TSLA shares asap.
You obviously don't understand the company and to quote the old !!!!!! Guru Stock Investor Buffett, "don't invest in companies you don't understand" (unless your name is Warren Buffett).

Totally right, I don't understand the company, but I don't understand any of the companies I have shares in, they are all just punts for fun. 
Still not going to sell them though, I'll wait for the crash and then panic sell.

adindas

Cus said:

Username999 said:

Cus said:

Tesla market cap is already 60% of Facebook.  If it raised its profits by 20 times then it would make the same profit as Toyota.  I wonder how much actual profit is out there for Tesla, even if it completely dominates the car market (which is a big if).  

I own Tesla shares, I don't want to sell as I feel that I will miss out on more rampant rises.  I don't seem to have the same worries for other shares I own.  Am I being brain washed somehow with propaganda?  My kids seem to think the sun shines out of Teslas ****, yet they have never been in one.   I wonder if this thinking will just lead to a huge crash at some point in the future.

I think you should sell all your TSLA shares asap.
You obviously don't understand the company and to quote the old !!!!!! Guru Stock Investor Buffett, "don't invest in companies you don't understand" (unless your name is Warren Buffett).

Totally right, I don't understand the company, but I don't understand any of the companies I have shares in, they are all just punts for fun. 
Still not going to sell them though, I'll wait for the crash and then panic sell.

As mentioned previously. If you want to limit the damage, put a stop loss on the individual stock the lowest price you intend to keep it. In this case you will avoid a panic selling based on your emotion and you still preserve your capital.

Ciprico

Username999 said:

Another SPAC - this time a UK based one - with $1.2B orders.
Arrival... https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/18/arrival-becomes-latest-electric-vehicle-startup-to-test-the-public-markets-with-a-spac/

If one wanted to take a punt on this - how would one go about it....?
(I understand it's very high risk and that the purpose of a startup reversing into a SPAC is to avoid all the usual public listed company regulations and checks). 

Username999

Before the actual merger you'd have to buy "CIIC" stock (CIIG Merger Corp) on the Nasdaq.
It's up jumped 24% yesterday and is up another 18% pre-market today. 
It's already OLD NEWS!!
After the merger, if it goes though, the new stock symbol will be "ARVL".

[Deleted User]

bowlhead99 said:

bowlhead99 said:

pappadruid said:

Failing that, mainstream stocks such as BP and L&G, banks all very cheap at the moment.

I see Shell is around about where it was at the worst of March, while BP has fallen even lower despite having temporarily gone up 50% by June.  Instead of the ordinary equities I bought a couple of thousand of their 8% preference shares in mid to late March which are up 20% since then, plus the 4p dividend over the half year.

As the ordinaries are now lower than March's price I've put them back on my watch list, but wouldn't be a 'short term' speculative punt. There's unlikely to be a lot of short term news flow to drive BP higher until oil prices recover somewhat in the coming years - could take 2-3 years before we see $50 a barrel again.  Meanwhile the market didn't respond particularly favourably to the idea of cutting the dividend to invest in greener stuff. They have plans to increase their green investing from $0.5bn to $5bn over the next decade but the $0.5bn is just a fraction of their budget and so really it is uncharted territory for them, and they need oil to be flowing at good prices to be able to fund it if they don't want to cut the dividend further. While the long term doesn't bode well for a company too entrenched in 'old economy' oil, shares bought at £2 or so may be worth putting away for a few years.

Shell are faring a bit better perhaps and have seen a future in renewables ('the writing's on the wall') for some time. A contrast to Exxon who are basically sticking their head in the (oil and LNG) sands, and trying to make the most out of there existing expertise in hydrocarbon revenues as a cash cow while it lasts. There are certainly lots of different ways to play the sector, but for a 'speculative punt' thread you would normally expect to see explorers and miners etc with low chances to multi-bag, rather than multibillion behemoths which may be expected to take a while to release value.

I see RDSB is now a full 70% below its all-time high £28 share price that was reached around a year and a half ago, so have had a 'punt' on them 

862 to 1182
Excellent timing.