Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

My current speculative interest is in STEPPE CEMENT (STCM).  A boring but cash generative business. 

Looking into growth history in the past, it is a dead Money. Also the current revenue is less than what they generated back in 2018.

31/12/2018     82,185

TTM                80,522

But fundamentally is reasonably good with P/E ratio of 8.67. Also good for devidend play as they are paying dividend of around 16.67%. I will bite if I could get it around £23.00 to minimise the downside risk.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

My current speculative interest is in STEPPE CEMENT (STCM).  A boring but cash generative business. 

Looking into growth history in the past, it is a dead Money. Also the current revenue is less than what they generated back in 2018.

31/12/2018     82,185

TTM                80,522

But fundamentally is reasonably good with P/E ratio of 8.67. Also good for devidend play as they are paying dividend of around 16.67%. I will bite if I could get it around £23.00 to minimise the downside risk.

Our investment styles are akin to chalk and cheese. Growth history is of no interest to me. I wouldn't suggest anybody to trade in individual shares if they are concerned about downside risk. That's part and parcel of the activity. 

adindas

CPI figure in the US will be published today. It is already expected 7.2% e.g the highest the highest since 1982 but this Is already priced in the stock market. But when the CPI figure comes out higher than this there is very good chance there will be a sell off in the stock market especially high growth stock. That is exuberance in the stock market that we could take for our advantage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/january-consumer-inflation-expected-to-rise-7point2percent-highest-since-1982.html

Disneyland (DIS) reported earning yesterday after the market close. The stock rose 3.33% and another 7.59% premarket today. I was expecting DIS to miss their earning, so I could top up my postion. Unfortunately not the case.

If you could catch DIS at around US$135, (e.g the next support level) it is a no brainer imo (not a recomendation).

Reason: Low risk as it is a bluechip stocks in S&P500, reasonable valuation, reopening play, summer is coming, Avarage WS analyst PT is US$195

sevenhills

What percentage of investors do like high risk or are ok with short term gains? I am quite happy to sell shares that have gone up 10%/20% in a short time. Move on to the next share, some shares I keep only a matter of months and others years.

Thrugelmir

sevenhills said:

What percentage of investors do like high risk or are ok with short term gains? I am quite happy to sell shares that have gone up 10%/20% in a short time. Move on to the next share, some shares I keep only a matter of months and others years.

For what I would loosely describe as speculative plays. I've held shares for as little as 3 days or as long as 4 years. The ones I held for 4 years I kept on adding to. As considered them good value as underpinned by a 6% yield. Ended up with a sizable holding.    When the shares were finally rerated. I progressively sold down the position. 

More generally. To sell , I either wish to increase my cash % or there's a share on my watchlist that's a buy at the current time. I'll review my portfolio and top slice to bank some profit or cash out of a stock that isn't performing.  At anytime I will liquidate holdings totally if there's something fundamentally amiss. Whether it be a profit or loss situation. I've no problem with taking a 4 figure loss on the chin. Do not have a sentimental attachment to my investing decisions. Easiest just to move on while clocking the experience. 

adindas

adindas said:

CPI figure in the US will be published today. It is already expected 7.2% e.g the highest the highest since 1982 but this Is already priced in the stock market. But when the CPI figure comes out higher than this there is very good chance there will be a sell off in the stock market especially high growth stock. That is exuberance in the stock market that we could take for our advantage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/january-consumer-inflation-expected-to-rise-7point2percent-highest-since-1982.html

CPI is worse than expected 7.5% that is why there was a blip in the stock market today early in the stock market opening today. But it recovers slowly later in the day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak4OLwWlgGw
Inflation climbed faster than expected in January at 7.5% Feb 10, 2022 CNBC Television

adindas

adindas said:

Timing the Market for "individual stock" especially growth stock using the VIX and Fear and Greed Index and Fundamental Analysis. They are quite accurate is it not ??

Let alone if it is combined with technical indicator such as using RSI and MACD, Moving avarage to gauge the area around the bottom.

The VIX, Fear and Greed Index as Macro Barometer to scan the environment "to time the market" for "High Growth stock" how accurate they are. Let alone if it is refined with technical indicators for the particular stock in question.

Look at today and compare it with the previous week I have posted previously. Is it not accurate ??. See the VIX. it start rising again. The Fear and Greed Index also moving  toward more fear in comparison to previous week.

Steve182

Thrugelmir said:

My current speculative interest is in STEPPE CEMENT (STCM).  A boring but cash generative business. 

I've had Steppe in my watchlist since I found Stockopedia rated it with a 100 stockrank value a couple of years ago. For whatever reason I never invested, something more attractive to put my money into perhaps. The stockrank has only dropped off recently due to poor SP momentum.

It appears net profit has increased consistently year by year for the past 5 years. Not sure about the sustainability of the forward dividend yield of 13% with divi cover of circa 1 if stockopedia's numbers are correct?  

Interesting company with a boring product, thanks for highlighting it.

If my memory serves me correctly the plant is in Kazakhstan and the parent company is Malaysian?  Do you know if there is withholding tax on divis in an ISA or SIPP?

sevenhills

Thrugelmir said:

For what I would loosely describe as speculative plays. I've held shares for as little as 3 days or as long as 4 years. The ones I held for 4 years I kept on adding to. As considered them good value as underpinned by a 6% yield. Ended up with a sizable holding.    When the shares were finally rerated. I progressively sold down the position.

I bought Vodafone shares recently, I held them for less than 6 months and was happy with around 20% profit, so I sold and bought something else.

Thrugelmir

Steve182 said:

Thrugelmir said:

My current speculative interest is in STEPPE CEMENT (STCM).  A boring but cash generative business. 

If my memory serves me correctly the plant is in Kazakhstan and the parent company is Malaysian?  Do you know if there is withholding tax on divis in an ISA or SIPP?

That's a good question. Kazakhstan is a totally new entity to me. Though even a 20% deduction offers a decent yield if the dividend is maintained. I expect Steppe to be a share that is likely to be a slow burner.  Despite knowing that the French deduct 27% ( ) , buying into TOTAL when it offered a gross 11% yield. Has subsequently proven to be a sound long term buy and hold.